It is estimated that up to 118 million extremely poor people will be exposed to drought, floods and extreme heat in Africa by 2030 due to global warming

Climate change will increase food shortages and destroy Africa's glaciers

photo_camera ONU/Tim McKulka - An elderly woman, displaced from her home in Abyei, Sudan, prepares to receive her ration of emergency food aid

The study highlights that variations in rainfall patterns, rising temperatures and increased extreme weather contributed to increased food insecurity, poverty and displacement in Africa over the past year, a situation that exacerbated the socio-economic and health crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

World Meteorological Organization secretary-general Professor Petteri Taalas notes in the foreword to the report that climate indicators in Africa during 2020 were marked by a steady rise in temperatures, rapid sea level rise, extreme weather and climate events and other related devastating consequences.

"The rapid shrinking of the last glaciers in East Africa, which are expected to melt completely in the near future, signals the threat of imminent and irreversible change in the earth system," the scientist warned.

Taalas added that in the wake of the recovery from the coronavirus pandemic, there is an urgent need to improve climate resilience.

"Investments are especially needed in capacity building and technology transfer, as well as in improving countries' early warning systems, including weather, water and climate observation systems," he said.

Las sequías cada vez más agudas en Somalia han provocado el desplazamiento de la población, lo que ha socavado la seguridad alimentaria y ha dejado a las mujeres expuestas a la explotación sexual
Some 118 million people at risk of extreme events by 2030

The report was launched during the extraordinary session of the World Meteorological Congress and ahead of climate change negotiations at the 26th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP26), the UN Climate Conference to be held in Glasgow from 31 October to 12 November.

The study adds to the scientific evidence on the urgent need to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions, raise the level of climate ambition and increase adaptation finance.

"Africa is witnessing an increase in weather and climate variability, leading to disasters and disruption of economic, ecological and social systems," recalled the African Union Commission's Commissioner for Rural Economy and Agriculture, Josefa Leonel Correia Sacko.

Sacko also stressed that "by 2030, it is estimated that up to 118 million extremely poor people (i.e. living on less than $1.90 a day) will be exposed to drought, floods and extreme heat in Africa, if adequate response measures are not put in place. This will place additional burdens on poverty alleviation efforts and significantly hamper the growth of prosperity".

As an example, she cited that climate change could reduce sub-Saharan Africa's gross domestic product by as much as 3 per cent.

El noroeste de Somalia sufre sequías recurrentes
Main messages of the report

Temperatures:

  • Warming between 1991-2020 was higher than the 1961-1990 period in all African sub-regions and significantly higher than the 1931-1960 trend
  • Africa has warmed at a faster rate than the global average temperature over the entire land and ocean surfaces
  • 2020 was between the third and eighth warmest year on record for Africa, depending on the dataset used

Sea level rise:

  • Sea level rise rates along the tropical and southern Atlantic coast and the Indian Ocean coast are higher than the global average rate
  • Sea level along the Mediterranean coasts is rising at a lower rate than the global average.
Vista aérea del hielo que se está derritiendo en la cima del Monte Kilimanjaro

Glaciers:

  • Currently, only three glaciers remain in African mountains: the Mount Kenya Massif (Kenya), the Rwenzori Mountains (Uganda) and Mount Kilimanjaro (United Republic of Tanzania).
  • These glaciers are too small to play a major role as water reservoirs, but are of great tourist and scientific importance.
  • Their current rates of retreat are higher than the global average and, if this trend continues, will lead to total deglaciation by the 2040s.
  • Mount Kenya is expected to lose its glacier mass a decade earlier, making it one of the first entire mountain ranges to lose glaciers as a result of climate change due to human activity.

Rainfall:

  • Rainfall and flooding predominated in the Sahel, the Rift Valley, the central Nile Basin and northeast Africa, the Kalahari Basin and the lower Congo River.
  • Dry conditions prevailed on the northern coast of the Gulf of Guinea and in northwest Africa and across southeast Africa. Drought in Madagascar caused a humanitarian crisis.

Devastating phenomena:

  • Extensive flooding occurred in many parts of East Africa.
  • Countries reporting loss of life or significant population displacement included Sudan, South Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, Uganda, Chad, Nigeria (which also experienced drought in the south), Niger, Benin, Togo, Senegal, Côte d'Ivoire, Cameroon and Burkina Faso.
  • Many lakes and rivers reached record high levels, such as Lake Victoria (last May) and the Niger River in Niamey and the Blue Nile in Khartoum (in September)

Food insecurity:

  • The combination of long-standing conflicts, political instability, climate variability, pest outbreaks and economic crises, compounded by the effects of the coronavirus disease pandemic (COVID-19), were the main drivers of a significant increase in food shortages.
  • A desert locust invasion of historic proportions, which began in 2019, continued to have severe impacts in East Africa and the Horn of Africa in 2020.
  • Food insecurity increases by 5-20 per cent with each flood or drought in sub-Saharan Africa. The associated deterioration in children's health and school attendance can exacerbate income and gender inequalities in the longer term.
  • In 2020, the population affected by food insecurity increased by almost 40 per cent over the previous year

Displacement:

  • An estimated 12 per cent of all new population displacements globally occurred in the East Africa and Horn of Africa region
  • More than 1.2 million of these new displacements were disaster-related and almost half a million were conflict-related.
  • Floods and storms were the largest contributors to disaster-related internal displacement, followed by drought.
Al menos 50.000 personas se han visto afectadas por las inundaciones en la región de Gatumba (Burundi) en el último año

Investment:

  • Adaptation costs in sub-Saharan Africa are estimated at US$30-50 billion per year (2-3% of regional gross domestic product (GDP) over the next decade that would avoid even higher costs for additional disaster relief.
  • Climate-resilient development in Africa requires investments in hydrometeorological infrastructure and early warning systems to prepare for an increasing number of devastating hazard events

Early warnings:

  • Household surveys conducted by the International Monetary Fund in Ethiopia, Malawi, Mali, Niger and the United Republic of Tanzania found that, among other factors, expanding access to early warning systems and information on food prices and weather (through text or voice messages to inform farmers when to plant, irrigate or fertilise) can reduce the likelihood of food insecurity by 30 per cent

Adaptation:

  • Rapid implementation of African adaptation strategies will stimulate economic development and generate more jobs to support economic recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • Implementation of the common priorities identified by the African Union Action Plan for Ecological Recovery would contribute to the continent's sustainable and ecological recovery from the pandemic, while enabling effective climate action.

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