Egypt-Ethiopia Nile dam incident takes on military overtones

The tension continues. Egypt, which has opted for a more aggressive approach in its duel with Ethiopia over the Nile Dam, is beginning to mobilise military hardware and support for Somalia for the first time in over 40 years. Such a move has not been welcomed by the Ethiopian executive and could trigger a full-scale conflict.

Two Egyptian military aircraft arrived at Mogadishu airport on Tuesday morning with arms and ammunition, two diplomats and a senior Somali official told Reuters, speaking on condition of anonymity. A video shared on social media and verified by Reuters showed the planes on the airport runway.

Egypt and Somalia have grown closer this year after Ethiopia signed a preliminary agreement with the breakaway Somaliland region to lease coastal land in exchange for possible recognition of its independence from Somalia. The government in Mogadishu has described the deal as an attack on its sovereignty and said it will block it by any means necessary. Landlocked Ethiopia says it needs access to the sea. Egypt, which has been at loggerheads with Ethiopia for years over Addis Ababa's construction of a large hydroelectric dam at the headwaters of the Nile River, has condemned the Somaliland deal. The dam issue resurfaced in recent days after the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) said it is already generating 1,550 megawatts of electricity.

‘The overall progress of GERD has now moved from the construction phase to the operation phase,’ with the construction of the dam completed. ‘The two turbines generating 400MW each have already started operating, adding to the two already functional turbines generating 375MW each, totalling an output of 1,550MW,’ he added. Cairo signed a security pact with Mogadishu earlier this month and offered to send troops to a new peacekeeping mission in Somalia.

The agreement was signed in Cairo following talks between Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi and Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, who said the ‘historic pact is testimony to a future of common defence against the international terrorism that Somalia is fighting at home and abroad’.

Egypt's offer to contribute troops to a new peacekeeping mission to be launched next year in Somalia was announced in an African Union communiqué earlier this month. Somalia had already threatened to expel the up to 10,000 Ethiopian troops there as part of the peacekeeping mission and under bilateral agreements to fight Al Shabaab militants if the deal was not cancelled.

Major General Nasr Salem, an adviser to the Egyptian army-affiliated Nasser Military Academy, said that military cooperation with Somalia was part of Egypt's desire to protect its vita interests that extend to the sources of the Nile and the Red Sea. He stated that the provision of arms and the establishment of strong military relations with Somalia ‘would contribute to securing Egyptian interests in neighbouring areas, namely in the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea, which ultimately leads to safeguarding Egyptian national security’.

He added that Egypt-Somalia military cooperation is ‘a message of deterrence to Ethiopia and a signal that any region is within Egypt's reach if it poses a threat to it’. But some experts see risks for Egypt and Somalia. They believe Mogadishu is ‘playing with fire’ by importing Egyptian weapons and antagonising Ethiopia.

Cairo could provoke a regional military escalation. ‘If the Egyptians put boots on the ground and deploy troops along the border with Ethiopia, they could directly confront each other,’ said Rashid Abdi, an analyst with the Somalia-based think tank Sahan Research.

‘The threat of a direct shooting war is low, but a proxy conflict is possible.’ Addis Ababa has reacted angrily to the growing military ties between Egypt and Somalia. The Ethiopian foreign ministry said in a statement that the country ‘cannot stand idly by while other actors take steps to destabilise the region’, while working to promote peace and security for Somalia and the region.

‘Forces trying to inflame tension for their short-term goals must bear the serious ramifications,’ Ethiopia's foreign ministry said on Wednesday. ‘Ethiopia cannot tolerate such actions that jeopardise the gains made against regional and international terrorist groups.’ Ethiopia's statement did not mention Egypt or its delivery of arms to Somalia. Turkey also remains in the spotlight, having hosted two rounds of indirect talks between Somalia and Ethiopia since July on the Somaliland deal, which has not yet been concluded. A third round is expected in September.