Beware of global tensions in 2023

The year is beginning, but we will have to pay attention to a series of international tensions that could well continue to evolve and for the worse, adding greater instability to the global village. 

It cannot be ruled out that the war in Ukraine will add other actors and involve other warring poles, extending the magnitude of the conflict. Close attention should be paid to the friction between Iran and Israel and North Korea's strong support for the Russian dictator. 

Kim Jong-un's regime continues to demonstrate that it has a respectable ballistic arsenal and tensions have risen significantly between North and South Korea and also with Japan. 

Putin's hand in the Kosovo-Serbia and Armenia-Azerbaijan conflicts are two real time bombs that the EU and NATO should cool down intelligently and take their role more seriously because in the case of Russia-besieged Georgia and Ukraine, they have failed since 2008 when Ossetia and Abkhazia happened. The Minsk Protocol was a dead letter from the start because Ukraine was seen as too far away from Brussels.    

Tensions will also continue in Taiwan, in the South China Sea; between India and China over the Himalayan border region; in the eastern Mediterranean; between Turkey, Greece and Cyprus. In Africa, attention will need to be paid to the Sahel; friction between Morocco and Algeria; and political instability in the governments of several African countries. The spread of radical Islamism and terrorism is finding fertile ground for jihad in Africa.  

In Brazil, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's biggest challenge will be to unite a deeply divided and bitterly divided society. Lula is a target for pro-Bolsonaro groups.  

For the experts at the Barcelona Centre for International Affairs, there are ten issues that will set the agenda for 2023: 1) acceleration of strategic competition; 2) inoperability of global collective security frameworks due to a reversal in the path of nuclear disarmament; 3) colliding transitions. The green and digital transitions, which seemed to go hand in hand towards building a more sustainable world, have collided, accelerating another kind of geo-economic competition for so-called rare earths; 4) the risk of a widening debt crisis in emerging economies during 2023 is increasing. Sri Lanka has been the first alarm bell, but attention should be paid to Pakistan, Egypt or Lebanon; 5) crisis of access and collateral to basic goods. 

The other five factors to take into account are: 6) instability and social unrest. In 2022, more than 90 countries have registered mobilisations due to the lack of access to public goods and it could be more intense in 2023, when the consequences of the energy crisis will be more visible; 7) fracture and atomisation of movements and their demands. Protest is gaining ground - both in democracies and in dictatorships - but increasingly in fractured, polarised societies; 8) authoritarianism under pressure. 70% of the world's population - more than 5 billion people - live under dictatorships. Democratic regression is gaining ground; 9) advancing regulatory fragmentation and sectoral deglobalisation; and 10) the danger of a nuclear attack or accident has risen following the escalation of Russian rhetoric. 

Tensions will continue to run high. The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) is reorganising all its events around the issue of invasion and military and strategic assistance to the Kiev government.  Its head, Jens Stoltenberg, has been at the helm of the transatlantic alliance since 2014 and last September the Norwegian ended his term, but remains at the helm pending the decision on another two-year term or the appointment of another secretary general in the coming months. 

Everything will depend on Biden, although on more than one occasion former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has expressed his willingness and interest in leading NATO. 

The European Union (EU) will continue to keep an eye on economic, financial and organisational support for Ukrainian refugees. It was a great victory for Ukrainian President Volodymir Zelenski to organise the EU-Ukraine Summit in Kiev on 3 February, which will be attended in person by Charles Michel, President of the European Council, and Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission.  

Originally it was to be held in Brussels, but at the request of the Ukrainian government it has been moved to the Kiev capital. The other state leaders of the 27 member states will be connected via streaming.  

This year, moreover, Spain will hold the presidency of the EU Council in the second half of the year - from 1 July to 31 December. This is the fifth time in its history, and it is very important for Mexico because the entry into force of the new global agreement between Mexico and the EU will be discussed.  

As for the eurozone, as of 1 January, Croatia joined the single currency, thus becoming the twentieth country to officially join the euro. Let's keep our fingers crossed that the global outlook does not worsen.