Opinion

Bolivia at the polls

photo_camera Jeanine Áñez

One year after the coup that ended Evo Morales' presidency, Bolivia will hold presidential elections and elect 130 deputies and 36 senators on October 18. After two postponements due to the pandemic, the election campaign is now booming.

A total of eight candidates are competing, and we must remember that, according to Bolivia's Electoral Law, to win in the first round, 50% of the votes are required, or a minimum of 40%, with a difference of ten points over the second most voted candidate. If neither of these conditions is met, the ballot will have to be held on November 29. 

So far, all the surveys concerning voting intentions have led to a second round of voting, as none of the candidates would meet the requirements. The majority of these polls show the winner to be the candidate of the Movement Towards Socialism (MAS), Mr Luis Arce Catacora, a university professor and former minister of economy and public finance in two different periods of the Evo Morales governments. In second place, the current interim president Jeanine Áñez and Carlos Mesa, representing Juntos and Comunidad Ciudadana, respectively, are competing for the post. The remaining five candidates will not be competing for the top positions and will only be relevant in a possible second round depending on who they ally with.

Although the most prestigious polls give Arce (MAS) as the winner, with 42% and more than ten points over the second one (which would not require a second round), the latest polls show a rapprochement between the three candidates mentioned, although it is true that the consultations have been held in the urban centres, where the vote for MAS is lower. 

If a second round were to be held on November 29, everything seems to point to the fact that MAS would lose the elections and Arce would not be president, as the discourse of "all against MAS" would serve to decant the ballot. The only doubt is whether the second round will be held by Áñez or Mesa. 

Looking at the electoral proposals and the campaign speeches, the only party that has a serious and complete government programme is the MAS. The rest base their campaign exclusively on WE DON'T WANT THE MAS and NEVER MORE EVO MORALES. With these words it is difficult to predict what will happen on October 18. There are no electoral debates on proposals for candidates, no discussion of public policy, no differences between the various programmes and so it is very difficult to face a presidential and legislative election, which will be governed by the viscera and not by reason, marked by confrontation and not by proposals. 

The surprise could fall from a sufficient result in the first round to elect Mr Luis Arce of the MAS as president, as the vote scattered over the remaining seven candidates could bring about that result. We will know this on October 18. 

Francisco Pineda Zamorano. Expert in International Relations and Cooperation.