The coronavirus, a biological weapon?

As I have been dedicated for many years to the study, observation and analysis of the so-called Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD), I can assure you that it is a subject that has always been my passion and continues to be so. We could say that WMD are nothing more than an artificial association or group of weapons unified by the same concept, being very lethal and of relative or easy dispersion or application. A group in which biological (B), chemical (Q), nuclear (N) and radiological (R) weapons have been incorporated according to their order of appearance on the scene. Thus, it is generally accepted that when we talk about WMD, we are talking about all or some of these NBC weapons.  

The truth is that their almost uncontrollable effects, the widespread casualties they produce and their greater or lesser persistence in the environment, the terrain or on beings where they are applied are the main factors that bring them together in this group. Although, we are quite a few who prefer to consider, that in reality, it is the irresistible fear or dread of their possible use or the simple threat of doing it the most important characteristic by which they are identified within a family of despicable matters. Perhaps, WMD are the most despicable elements that man has created to operate and tip the balance in his favor in his different threats, conflicts and wars.

The use of simple and rudimentary biological and chemical weapons, based on the detritus or remains of dead, rotten or disease-infested animals, with which the warriors of old used to poison their arrowheads, spears, catapult loads, livestock, food or the clean water of the wells and springs that supplied the towns and fortresses, is so old that it is not known for sure where they originated or in which evil head such an idea was engineered. 

The much later appearance of the atomic bomb and radiological weapons, which include the so-called dirty bombs, has completed, for the time being, the panoply of these evil weapons, which have well proven their value and deadly and psychological effects at both the tactical and strategic levels.

Despite the fact that there are many treaties, agreements, conventions, conferences and international or bilateral bodies devoted to limiting their control, production, storage, use or transfer of completed elements or any type of information on their attainment; none of the above has so far proved to be sufficiently effective to ensure that it is a subject that is submitted to an efficient international system that can provide the necessary and real guarantees of security.

Despite the aforementioned efforts of the international community as a whole or bilaterally among the great powers, who possess the most weapons of this type, there is not a single year in which a conflict has not arisen due to more or less well-founded suspicions about attempts to produce, transfer or exceed the limits previously reached, even if they are radically and officially prohibited. 

In many other cases, it has been well demonstrated, even if they try to hide it, that those who “officially” should ensure that the so-called rogue countries and others stop messing with this issue; They are the ones who encourage research, modernization and adaptation of their own arsenals, declared or hidden by that, in order not to lose an important ace in their hand that always provides them with a certain level of regional and international prestige, a great dose of respect and a great asset when sitting down to negotiate anything that has to do with security or disarmament. 

The most recent example of this is the allegations made by President Macron, who defends at every turn his right to lead the security and defence of the EU, even outside NATO, simply because he is - after the departure of the United Kingdom - the only country in the EU group that has such weapons.   

When I mentioned that WMD has applications and effects at both tactical and strategic levels, it was not unintentional, nor was it a slip of the tongue that I missed by leaving the text well-drafted and even somewhat more bombastic. Its value at the strategic level goes beyond the barriers of the geopolitical and geostrategic. The possession of these weapons, the predisposition -more or less veiled- of their use in case of need or for feeling threatened and the great differences in terms of their number and capacities, make that there are countries that, being almost insignificant by their size or population, only by the mere fact of possessing them, change totally their external perspective or the time of their consideration (Israel).

There are, however, many other countries -too many perhaps-, that fight hard to possess them in order to reach a certain degree of prestige or simply to improve their security, defence and deterrence capabilities (Iran, and North Korea among several others). Others, for different and obscure reasons, try to create new weapons of this type looking for an increase in their degree of efficiency; for this, they need to be less expensive and easier to obtain, hide, transport and spread or propagate; that once applied, except for very evident reasons (nuclear), they are very difficult to identify as pathogenic, because of their origin and degree of permanence or resistance to the traditional methods for their isolation, fight or eradication by means of vaccines and other systems or individual or collective prophylactic measures.  

It is when weighing up all these new characteristics and the results or features of the new-age demands on these weapons that we come close to biological weapons as the most efficient solutions to most of them. These weapons are known as the nuclear weapons of the poor because of the relationship between low cost and great effectiveness; they are less bulky, silent, easy to transport, quick to spread and contagious even if they are not immediately effective. These are very favorable characteristics, mainly because we live in a world that is so globalized and transversal, full of events and massive commercial meetings, large cruises and hundreds of thousands of planes landing and taking off daily from dozens of airports.

With massive congregations of people for sporting events of local, regional, national and even world level, in which contact between people, even trying to avoid it, is mandatory mainly by the use of mass transport in large cities or those that lead us to them from its periphery.  

All these principles or arguments, and although there is not yet a clear and real reason for suspicion, make me think a little about the possibility that the Coronavirus (scientifically baptized as COVID19 ), could be a modified or new generation biological weapon. In order to reach this conclusion, which I must clarify is merely intuitive, we would have to analyze the infection from its origins, methods of expansion or propagation and its contagion, measures taken, potential objectives sought and how many of them have already been met or achieved or far exceeded. The existence or not of possibilities of recovery, and what could be the near or immediate future for its combat or definitive eradication.

The years of work in military intelligence and those dedicated to the study of WMD taught me that normally the facts; above all, if these are important or transcendental and global, never occur by chance; therefore, I begin to think that it is not a mere coincidence that China has been the country where this, for the moment, not at all clear disease has begun to spread and that therefore, being the most populated country in the world and open to all types of commercial relations on the continent, its diffusion has been at great speed.

To be able to base my suspicions, I will have to provide the reasons, motives or objectives that may have led to this action; motives that, after a brief analysis of recent events, I find to be many and varied. To begin with, and in order to understand who and what may have been the engine and subject of this whole mess, we must identify the first objective to be cancelled. An objective that is none other than the possibilities and "evils" of 5G technology; qualities that have been announced with great fanfare in the most important recent security forums. The United States could be considered the subject of action because it has led the way on the issue of discredit and, to that end, has spared no effort in trying to instill in us such a nightmare and possible evil in important forums such as the last NATO Summit and the Munich Security Conference; of which there are many references, including mine, in which the message that the Americans wanted to convey to us clearly is made clear.

In order to reinforce the previous point, we must remember that, often, in order to try to discredit certain products or a nation's own capacities, there is nothing better than to show the rest of the world that it is an opaque country, closed to freedom of information, contrary to the freedom of people or respect for human rights and incapable of dealing with ordinary problems because its real capacities in important areas, such as public health, leave much to be desired. A country or a government that prefers to let its own people die for lack of information, trying to hide a superior reality or for not telling the truth in the face of the scarcity of means to cope with such difficulty, does not deserve external attention or dedication in other aspects, however far removed they may be from the aforementioned problems.   

The fierce commercial struggle between China and the US has caused both countries to have to leave a lot of hair on the cat's back before reaching a more or less satisfactory solution for both; the embarrassments or offenses suffered by the respective citizens or the sensation of having lost the game after great and loquacious threats and challenges, even if they were not finally carried out, may lead them to look for certain alternatives covered up as a form of revenge.

One of the first and biggest industrial, economic and commercial victims has been the suppression of the world famous Mobile World Congress in Barcelona for this year. This is a tremendously suspicious phenomenon, since it has not gone unnoticed by anyone that the vast majority of Chinese telephone and communication companies maintained their intention to attend the congress even after the organisation cancelled the event, and yet it was Western companies, mainly North American ones, that started the noise and psychosis of their urgent departure from the event. This is an event in which the main figure to stand out this year was the company Huawai and its 5G technology.  However, despite the excuse used in Barcelona, "coincidentally", no similar type of psychosis has appeared to cause the closure of other international forums of various types and entities held simultaneously or later in time. 

The economies of the countries affected by the expansion of the coronavirus have been maintained thanks to the strong injections of capital and other manoeuvres during the first days and weeks; this has meant that it has not had any apparent negative effect even at a high cost. The situation has become more complicated since last Monday 24th when the number of countries affected by infected people had increased a lot and mainly because of the strong and fast expansion in Italy; a European country that is among the first in tourist visits and commercial transactions. So much has been the devastating effect of this news that several matches of the Italian league (a football loving country without equal) and even the world famous carnivals of Venice have had to be cancelled or ended abruptly.  

After weeks of some contention regarding their expansion and because no borders have been effectively closed except in certain Chinese and some Italian cities, towns and regions; As more than a month has passed without having discovered the identity of the pathogen, its form of transmission and the potential animal or person who initiated the infection, the number of cases (infections and deaths) has been increasing as well as the number of countries involved in its infection; so much so that on the same day the World Health Organization (WHO) has declared that we may be facing a possible Pandemic.

Chaos and international panic at the global level is now more than guaranteed on the table, so the main objective of WMD has been more than achieved. There are several reasons for this, although everything suggests that they are mainly due to China's initial misinformation, its attempt to deceive its population and the world, and its inability to fight the disease due, among other things, to the closed nature of its communist political system and the major gaps in its national public health service. 

These are points that directly affect the discredit of a nation, which has recently been growing too much in economic, military and political terms in its ever-increasing and more consolidated areas of interest and influence; which was also strong enough to deal with commercial issues and even, in some respects indirectly, with certain so-called grey zone conflicts.        

In view of what has been expressed up to this point, for many observers there would not be much doubt that it would be perfectly logical to think that it would be the United States that would derive the greatest benefits from a situation that would discredit China; and therefore, it would be the Americans who would be more than interested in provoking such a conflict in the form of a great health crisis, taking advantage of the great freedom of movement between countries. Freedom of movement, heightened by the increase in tourism and the low cost prices of long-distance flights at this time of year.

Another alternative, less likely, would come from China itself; a country that invests enormous efforts in improving its arsenals of weapons of all kinds and that in the aspect of the biological and pharmaceutical industry does not lag behind either. It could be due to an escape or unwanted infection in one of its laboratories testing this type of weapon, which would have caused this expansion and it is precisely because of the total secrecy of these clearly prohibited investigations that they have led to such unethical reactions, silences and concealments, at the outset of the infection.   

But in the absence of categorical proof in both cases, the doors should not be closed to other hypotheses or alternatives of equal or superior category, and this is where Russia would also come in. Another country perfectly in line with the research and development of WMD at the same or higher level than the two previous ones and which could draw huge benefits from this conflict without apparently doing anything more than observing and keeping quiet without protesting.

Russia could be thinking about the benefits of an all-out struggle between China and the US. Countries, which could very easily pass from the white glove and maintain certain prudential distances to other perfectly viable options in the arena of diplomacy and geostrategy. Above all, if neither of them were really responsible for anything, but as a consequence of the conflicts between both their economies and the world economy -where they have enough on their plate- they could go down and as a final consequence one or both national industries on the new communication technologies would be sunk in spite of the multimillionaire investments for the launching of their products and the practical conquest of the world market. In addition, the enormous discredit and relocation of the large manufacturing industries in China, as is already beginning to happen with the large brands that are beginning to flee the country, which we should not forget contribute many millions to its GDP and which feed millions of Chinese people.

In this case, we would be talking about Russia, a super expert country and very fond of the use of chemical and biological weapons in a covert way, could have used them on this occasion, trying to divert the strong suspicions towards another side (USA) and staying away from the development of the situation, as it is happening. 

It is possible that the ideas expressed in this work do not come close to reality; even that it may have been the Americans who have used them in collusion with Russia to get rid of a tremendously annoying fellow traveller, who was beginning to have a lot of specific weight in the international world and who is a real stone in the shoe in the evolution of international relations and its counterweights.  It could also happen that nothing of what was said is true and everything is just the lucubrations of an already old retired analyst, warped by seeing so many topics and participating in the elaboration of numerous strange contingency plans, which pass in front of his eyes and through his hands that finally make him see and find suspects everywhere.

In spite of the above, what is totally true, is the validity and importance of these weapons due to their great psychological capacities and their more than proven possibility of paralyzing the world economy; a possibility that not only continues to be valid, but that in view of the development of these recent events, has acquired an enormous dimension. 

A dimension that no one has ever imagined and that may continue to grow if conclusive clues are not soon found to identify the outbreak, its form of transmission and how to stop and combat its spread. Drums are already sounding about a possible suppression of the Olympic Games, the biggest and most awaited sports event in the world every four years, and the IMF is beginning to warn of the more than certain serious consequences that this phenomenon will have on the progress and evolution of the world economy.

Disinformation and fake news are very propitious breeding grounds on these occasions of confusion, anxiety and widespread panic among the population eager for encouraging news and a certain positive orientation. At a time when governments are outgunned and the media with its enormous capacity to snoop around, coupled with the incalculable power of the networks to spread, this news thrives in all corners and has, if possible, a greater prominence and penetrability. 

The reactions of countries individually and collectively are often different in their form, time and mode of response or reaction. Entities such as the WHO or the EU are blocked and unable to set unified guidelines because attempts to close borders are not received equally by their partners. 

Some have been seeing the problem as being far from their borders for weeks and therefore consider it difficult to overcome; they do not take into account the aforementioned generalisation, globalisation and cross-cutting nature of things, goods and people that are constantly moving around the world. Today there are no borders or barriers of any kind, as shown by the fact that apart from China, countries as disparate and unconnected as South Korea, Iran and Italy are, for the moment, victims of increasing collective contagion and deaths from the virus. 

In view of the bewilderment and in the absence of clear and effective general guidelines, each country is trying to take its own measures; some are looking the other way and praying that it will never reach them, and others at least have tightened up controls and measures so that foreigners or their own people on return journeys can cross their borders.

In Spain, original as always, we have again resorted to the old socialist mantra of how well we are prepared, that our health system does not only play in the champions league, but that we occupy the first place in the world, that we are expectant and in contact with all the countries and organisms affected and has qualified our health system as “absolutely qualified”, emphasizing that we work in the coordination of the group of administrations to reach “proportionate and adequate decisions” (declarations of the Government spokesperson after the Council of Ministers of today, February 25); while the reality is that no preventive measures have been taken for all those who have been entering Spain, either prior to the detection of a case verified yesterday, February 25 (an Italian doctor on vacation in a large hotel in the Canary Islands and who entered already infected), nor are they taken after this fact has been verified.

Days before, after a spectacular assembly with a dozen Spaniards evacuated from ground zero in China a few weeks ago, who, after a long and painful journey in a plane chartered by the United Kingdom, were preventively admitted - because they were not infected - to the “neurology” (17) plant of the Central Defence Hospital Gómez Ulla until their definitive discharge, after medical verification that in two weeks their vital signs remained constant and intact. 

Our government, impassive to discouragement and taking advantage of any occasion or moment for propaganda, has continued to give wings and confidence to locals and foreigners alike. As proof of this, I copy literally what a great friend and best analyst published a few days ago on the subject: “However, and with this, there is still no reason to worry since our health system is of great quality, according to the words of the President of the Government yesterday in Brussels, and I will not be the one who doubts the word of a president. Perhaps we'll have to see what the regional councillors think, because they are responsible for this, or perhaps the president was thinking about the military health system without knowing - these things are not his responsibility - that it has almost been scrapped for facilities and staff. Something must have been on his mind, for sure”.  

As the only measure in all Spain, at a local level, after the Canary Islands outbreak, about 1000 people coinciding with the patient have been blocked in the same Canary Islands hotel, confined to their rooms for a time still to be determined and without giving them any information or health care of any kind. On the other hand, as is usually done in these cases, an inter-ministerial commission has been appointed at a general level (with no less than 14 ministries involved) under the command of Vice-President Calvo. 

Meanwhile, the Minister of Industry, Trade and Tourism, and not the Minister of Health, announced this morning, at a book launch event, that “Spain will activate a protocol for hotels, airports and areas of mass influx of the coronavirus”, which has yet to be defined and determined, and of which I am aware, no reference has been made in the Minister's conference following today's Council of Ministers.  This is what our government, full of feigned euphoria or rather of the impudence that always accompanies and characterises it, calls “coordination and transparency”. As I close this little piece of work, the number of infected people in Spain from abroad is increasing. We will see if, as usual, we will not have arrived late and badly.