Opinion

Egypt, the Middle East balancing act

photo_camera Egipto, el equilibrio de Oriente Medio

Egypt, an Arab and African country at the same time, guarantor of traffic in the Eastern Mediterranean, neighbour of Israel and the only point of opening to the outside world for the Gaza Strip, has serious assets on the geopolitical level in a region known for its instability. 

Today, the country of the Pharaohs is back on the international scene stronger than ever with Marshal al-Sissi at its head, who has become - by force of circumstance - an ambassador for peace. Is the military man becoming a fine diplomat? 

Not really! Because even if his mediations in the region are consequent, he is above all the head of the army in this country where the military is a caste in its own right. 

On the diplomatic side, it has not escaped anyone the rapprochement between Cairo and Ankara in recent weeks.  As a reminder, the two countries have been at odds since 2011 and the fall of Mubarak. Erdoğan's support for the Muslim Brotherhood and former president Mohamed Morsi only exacerbated tensions until relations between the two countries broke down completely. Moreover, many opponents of al-Sissi have found refuge in Turkey and famous journalists and columnists broadcast from Ankara their anti-regime Egyptian programmes. But the situation seems to be changing. Some journalists say they have been ordered to lower their voices! 

Today the hatchet seems to be buried and the honeyed declarations continue on the Turkish side, which speaks of "common values" between the former antagonists. 

If Erdoğan is increasingly isolated on the Western international scene, Egypt's historical partners in the Gulf are getting closer to Ankara. But this is not the only reason for the announced peace. In the troubled waters of the Mediterranean, alliances are made and unmade according to common interests. 

Between Egypt and Turkey, the sharing of waters in the Eastern Mediterranean, whose gas wealth has proved to be much more important than previously thought, is redrawing the contours of the geopolitical stakes in the region. 

Turkey is promising Egypt an important share of the cake and is trying to open a new chapter in its relationship with its former enemy.

This new chapter seems to be fruitful, especially as regards investments in Libya. 

But if the image of Egypt internationally is increasingly bright, internally it is doing rather badly. A third of its population lives below the poverty line and the Covid crisis has caused colossal damage, especially in hospitals, taking away up to 500 doctors in one year. Things are no better in terms of freedoms. The voices of NGOs and human rights organisations never cease to highlight the abuses of an authoritarian regime. (There are nearly 60,000 prisoners of conscience in Egyptian prisons).  But international politics does not bother too much about democracy or human rights at a time of substantial financial transactions. 

This is the case of France, which has just sold 30 Rafales to al-Sissi. A juicy contract worth 4 billion euros that strengthens relations between the two countries. The sale agreement signed with the French company Dassault Aviation, will be led by a financing loan with a minimum duration of 10 years, says the statement of the Egyptian Ministry of Defense. 

On the French side we keep repeating like a mantra that "the stability of Egypt is the stability of the Middle East". Indeed, Egypt wants to be in a strong position to face the many dangers that threaten it. The Sinai, gangrenous with mujahidin affiliated to different terrorist groups, is a real headache for Cairo and heavy means have been put in place for several years to chase away these mobile groups that move in this hostile desert. Moreover, international organisations denounce the abusive bombardments of the Egyptian army that affect the civilian population.  

If Egypt has difficulty in finding peace on its own territory, it has played an important role in recent weeks in the ceasefire negotiations between Hamas and Israel. 

Al-Sissi guaranteed a return to calm between the two belligerents and opened for an indefinite period the Rafah crossing, the only point of contact with the outside world for the Gaza Strip, allowing the delivery of humanitarian aid and evacuation of the wounded. 

Egypt, which is increasingly looking beyond its borders, is nevertheless finding it difficult to cure its own ills.