Extorting the West: a policy and strategy of the Iranian state

Forty-three years ago, the Iranian people rose up for the umpteenth time against the Shah for their freedom. But in the absence of progressive and democratic forces, imprisoned or executed, the mullahs were able to use the chain of mosques and the dominant religious ethos to rob the people of their revolution and found a theocracy. Despite this, resistance to tyranny has never ceased. It is in the interest of Western countries to echo this.

In recent years, with the post-mortem revelations of Ali Montazeri, popular uprisings in Iran have continued to grow. In the last Persian year, three uprisings in Khuzestan, Baluchestan and Isfahan, and more than 11,000 protests and demonstrations have continued to affirm the will of the Iranian people to finally achieve true democracy for the benefit of all. In 2019, up to 1,500 young insurgents were killed on the orders of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. And the violent repression of this desire for freedom has plunged the Iranian regime into a widespread crisis of legitimacy.

At first glance, one might think that Western democracies have come out in favour of democracy in Iran, in line with their principles of liberty, equality and fraternity. The reality is quite different. Last year, the US and European governments showed great flexibility in reaching an agreement with the Iranian regime. The US agreed to lift part of the sanctions, while the EU representative attended Ebrahim Raisi's inauguration despite his dismal reputation. It should be recalled that he was a very active official in 1988, during the massacre of 30,000 political prisoners, when he was among the sponsors of summary executions in Tehran's prisons.

The result of these Western policy flexibilities is catastrophic in many ways. First, Iran is taking advantage of it to accelerate its steps towards acquiring the atomic bomb. The goal is clear: to be able to quickly produce nuclear weapons and thus increase its military strength and power, especially against the West, to increase extortion and to promote its theocratic model worldwide.

The other major consequence of this Western diplomatic weakness can be seen on the ground. In the past year, the regime has hardened further. First, by elevating Ebrahim Raisi to the country's presidency and, while nuclear negotiations continued, by doubling the number of executions of women and young people under 18 at the time of their arrest compared to the same period last year. But Kazem Gharibabadi, human rights secretary of the mullahs' judiciary, is not offended. On the contrary, he says, "it should be borne in mind that there is no international obligation to ensure that those under 18 are not sentenced to death".

At the same time, the Iranian state continues its bellicose logic. It continues to train and equip its militias in other countries, providing them with numerous weapons, including drones. It attacks the Qatari airport. It repeatedly fires rockets at the US embassy in Baghdad or at its bases in various parts of Iraq. The mullahs' strategic response to the West's culpable diplomatic restraint is nothing less than incitement to war.

At home, the economy is sinking. Indeed, the regime has increased the IRGC's budget by 220%. By the same logic, the Supreme Leader prefers to reinforce his police and military machine rather than provide for any investment to improve the livelihoods of the people. Employment, housing, health, education and welfare of the people are secondary issues. Very secondary.

The fact is that this regime's priority is indeed to build a bomb. And this situation only increases discontent every day. According to the regime's official media statistics, at least 60% of the population lives below the poverty line. The inflation rate is over 50%. No funds are available for half of this year's budget. Even regime economists believe that the deteriorating economic situation can no longer be controlled. Understandably, uprisings from various sectors of Iranian society continue. And the fact that they continue to grow despite heavy state repression shows the enormous accumulation of unresolved political, social and economic problems and the urgent desire of this Iranian society for real change and freedom.

The Supreme Leader and the mullahs are convinced that obtaining the bomb will solve all problems. Of course, the bomb will be useless against uprisings that they know how to manage only by violent repression, but it would allow them to hold the West to ransom, extort further concessions and even large sums of money, while promoting their Islamic political model. The theocracy wants both the lifting of sanctions and the maintenance of its structures to enrich and build the atomic bomb. As they got in the 2015 deal. The cake and eat it too.

In the absence of a firm policy from the West, the mullahs are dragging their feet in the negotiations to buy the time they need to enrich uranium and build the bomb. In doing so, Western foreign ministries are putting themselves at risk by allowing a dangerous enemy to grow stronger militarily and acquire nuclear weapons. However, European history has already shown us how costly human lives can be if we are negligent and complacent about diplomacy. Can we believe for a moment that Western governments would be satisfied with the fact that religious fascism and the central banker of terrorism also have nuclear weapons? For let us be clear, the Iranian regime's abandonment of the atomic bomb is an illusion. The Iranian state has definitively sealed its fate with the bomb.

For years, the Iranian people and their desire for freedom and bread have been ignored by the West. The explosive situation of society and the insurgent youth is today the most important factor capable of determining Iran's future. Supporting the popular movement for freedom and human rights in Iran is the surest way to avoid the risk that the mullahs pose to the Western world, obtaining the best guarantee that the Iranian regime will not get the atomic bomb, and better still, guaranteeing security and de-Islamisation in Europe.

Hamid Enayat is an Iranian analyst, human rights activist and political opponent based in France.

• Ali Montazeri, then second-in-command of the regime and possible successor to Rouhollah Khomeini, spoke out against the fatwa issued by the Supreme Guide (Khomeini) ordering the summary execution of all political prisoners in the summer of 1988. His statements at the time were made public in the summer of 2016, thanks to a recording published on the internet. This issue was a major topic in the 2017 presidential campaign, during which some candidates, including Ebrahim Raisi, declared that they had no regrets about this dark period in their political activities.
• Ebrahim Raisi was one of the most active members of the notorious Death Commission, tasked with implementing Khomeini's fatwa.
• IRGC: Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, under the direct control of the Supreme Leader, totally outside the control of the country's public life.