The Haftar-Tebboune battle

Haftar would be on Algeria's doorstep!

The news has spread like wildfire and has been relayed by Arab and Western media. They tell us that the danger seems imminent. 

In the Libyan imbroglio, it is very difficult to detect the signs, to understand the alliances and enmities, as they are made and unmade according to the immediate interests of each clan. Everything seems to be moving very fast in Muammar Gaddafi's former empire, except this war that is dragging on in a country that is tearing itself apart.

Marshal Haftar has often caused trouble in political circles. An infrequent banishment by the international community that still managed to flirt with France, even if President Macron continues to deny it. An "adventure" that was quickly forgotten and will have lasted the duration of a transaction. 

However, among the constants of this conflict, Putin's support has proved infallible.

But why would the marshal be at the gates of Algeria, which has a hard time reaching Tripoli?

The powerful man from eastern Libya positioned his armies towards the Algerian border area near the town of Ghat, which was thus declared a "closed and forbidden military zone". Although the border was already closed, the gesture is highly symbolic. Haftar has not ceased to embarrass the UN-recognised government of National Unity, which is based in the capital. At a time when Tripoli's strongman Fayez al-Sarraj had initiated talks with Algiers to open the borders to facilitate trade between the two countries, but this project already appears compromised. "It is absolutely forbidden to reposition military units, whatever the nature of their mission, or to operate any movement of military convoys for any purpose, or to transfer personnel, weapons or ammunition," Tripoli warned in response to Haftar's provocations, who for his part had justified his intervention by the anti-Taqfirist struggle he is waging in the region, which remains his strong point.

Algeria is considered the largest military power in the Maghreb and the second largest in Africa. Marshal Haftar is aware of this. He knows in advance that a confrontation would cost him dearly. But a conflict could also cost Algeria, whose land borders are threatened from all sides. 

In the south, Tebboune must deploy his armies to secure the incursions of Islamist groups active in northern Mali, including the infamous Boko Haram. A border that proved porous when terrorists freed as a result of French hostage negotiations were able to travel back to Algeria without much difficulty. 

In the west, the Algerian-Moroccan border remains impassable and unstable, and the conflict with the Polisario Front prevents any trade and maintains the status quo between Rabat and Algiers. 

Border security is a real headache for Algiers, which in recent years has continued to increase its army budget.

In 2020, the country spent $9.7 billion on armaments, an increase of 64 per cent in five years. This increase is in line with the new doctrine desired by Algeria's new president, Abdelmadjid Tebboune. Algeria, which has always taken the stance of never intervening outside its soil, voted on 1 November 2020 for a new constitution that allows its armies to be deployed abroad. This radical shift in foreign policy was recently endorsed in an interview given by the Algerian president to Qatari channel Al-Jazeera, when he said: 'We do not accept that the capital of a Maghreb and African country is occupied by mercenaries. We will intervene," he warned Haftar before specifying that "Tripoli is a red line". Will the demarcation line imposed by Algiers prevent the marshal from seizing the Libyan capital? Will Algeria become embroiled in foreign wars in Libya, in Mali, while it is experiencing a serious political crisis at home? The future will show the end.