Hellish weeks for the United States
US President Joe Biden, his team and congressional Democrats have little more than two months to, first, agree among themselves on budgets and policy priorities and, second, convince Republicans to support raising the debt ceiling.
Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the House of Representatives, has already said that the United States was about to go through a crucial stage that she described as "the week from hell". Because if the negotiating skills of President Biden's team fail, what will then fail is the trillion-dollar budget of 3.5 billion dollars proposed by the Democratic leader for the post-Pandemic era and his legislative agenda will be in jeopardy.
Also at stake is the financial viability of the American Union, the fulfilment of its debts and commitments, which in recent days have put Janet Yellen, head of the Treasury, in a hurry to balance the books - against the clock - reminding Democrats and Republicans of the seriousness of defaulting and the negative impact on foreign confidence in everything the United States stands for.
In a sarcastic tone, Senate Appropriations Chairman Patrick Leahy questioned the attitude of Republican legislators whom he accused of deliberately boycotting Biden.
There is plenty of internal nervousness. The hellish week that Pelosi predicted could end up turning into hellish weeks until 3 December because the budgets for 2022 have to be approved and the debt ceiling extended, and the spectre of a shutdown that would only bring discontent and external volatility could be averted.
The Republicans are interested in exposing Biden so that he assumes a political cost in the run-up to the 2022 legislative elections and exposing the inexperience of their vice-president, Kamala Harris, who has been erased from the current battle.
Since the beginning of September, after the return from the summer recess, lobbying in the two US chambers has been intense and frenetic, with the Republicans entrenched in a refusal to allow Biden to govern with a historic budget.
The situation had been foreseen since 11 August, when only Senate Democrats passed the budget bill known as the "human infrastructure plan" in the early hours of the morning, without any Republican endorsement: 50 votes in favour and 49 against; they also voted in favour of the new infrastructure plan for 1 trillion dollars.
It is now up to the House of Representatives to vindicate and approve it, and although it is controlled by the Democrats, there are different positions within the House on the design of social programmes and tax increases because the progressive wing is more radical.
For his part, Mitch McConell, representative of the Republican minority in the Senate, has not lifted a finger, betting in part on Democratic desperation as time is running out to vote in favour of raising the debt ceiling to avoid a default on federal payments.
What legal options do the Democrats have? McConell repeats repeatedly that while Republicans have traditionally supported raising the debt ceiling, this time they "will not support it" in an atmosphere of clear and open tension that has Biden as its target.
On the other hand, the Democrats can resort to "budget reconciliation", an alternative of last resort for senators who could simply pass budget-related bills such as those on infrastructure and other social issues.
What they cannot do 'per se', by simple minority, is to raise the debt ceiling, for that they need an absolute majority, which they achieve with the Republican participation in the Senate, which is clearly unsatisfactory, at least so far. And if the debt ceiling is not raised, a trillion-dollar budget cannot be approved for Biden which, although it relies on more taxes for businessmen and the rich, is also in need of a greater margin of indebtedness.
The immediate fate of the American people rests in the hands of the Republicans, they hold the key and they know it. Everything is in jeopardy if a pact is not reached between the two parties, together with Biden's intentions to increase medical benefits in health care, including dental, ophthalmological and hearing services; the construction of new community kindergartens and the granting of citizenship to millions of immigrants without papers or the inclusion of hundreds of thousands of Afghans evacuated from Afghanistan a few weeks ago and who are processing asylum requests on US soil.
The Republicans' tactic is to provoke the desperation of the Democrats so that they see the shutdown of the federal government as a result of a lack of resources, which would mean that public employees would not receive a salary. Intense weeks of hell are in the offing...