The Meloni Government passes the confidence of the Houses and begins the 19th Legislature

The Meloni government, the 68th in the history of the Italian Republic and the first to be headed by a woman after 32 premiers, all of them men, is now a reality. Last Friday the 21st, President Mattarella gave her the "incarico" to form the government and that same day she gave the list of its members; on the 22nd, they were sworn in; and, finally, between Tuesday and Wednesday, they won the confidence of the Chambers, which was taken for granted because the centre-right coalition has a broad "maggioranza" in the two Chambers that make up the Parliament.

Let us begin by noting that the appointments as a whole were more or less as expected, at least with respect to what was being said in the media. Meloni, unlike Draghi (the "uscente" or outgoing prime minister), decided to bring back the figure of the vice-president of the Council of Ministers, and in a double role. One of those chosen was Antonio Tajani of Forza Italia, who was also given the foreign affairs portfolio. The other was Matteo Salvini, leader of the League, who would also be in charge of a ministry, specifically Infrastructure. From there, the appointment that attracted the most attention was that of the head of Economy and Finance: Faced with the fact that the two best economists currently in public life did not want this portfolio (Fabio Panetta, a member of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB), and Daniele Franco, head of Economy and Finance in the Draghi government), Meloni had no choice but to turn to Giancarlo Giorgetti, the League's number two, a member of parliament since 1996 and Minister for Economic Development in the Draghi government.

Giorgetti is a man with a very, very fair preparation for such an important ministry. It is true that he studied at the prestigious Bocconi University, where the country's economic and business elite are trained, but it is equally true that he is a politician and not an economist: he is neither a Monti, nor a Saccomani, nor a Padoan, nor a Tria and, above all, his knowledge of the economic and financial world is far inferior to that of Mario Draghi and Daniele Franco. This makes it clear that, in practice, Giorgetti will be in permanent contact with Draghi (now free of any "incarico") and Franco (surely the successor, in a few months, of the current governor of the Bank of Italy, Ignazio Visco), and also has the "road map to follow": the NRRP that Draghi presented to the European Union in March 2021 containing all the reforms to be carried out in the 2021-27 seven-year period and for which the transalpine economy would receive an amount of around 385 billion euros.

In reality, Meloni did have an economist among his parliamentarians to head the economy and finance, none other than Tremonti, who headed this portfolio until November 2011, but he was surely vetoed by Silvio Berlusconi and, moreover, must not be to the liking of the EU authorities, Since he was then Minister of Economy and Finance, the Italian government was intervened and a new government had to be appointed (16 November 2011) headed by former European Commissioner and at that time rector of Bocconi University, Mario Monti.

Apart from these three appointments, and as was to be expected, most of the ministers came from the party with the most votes in the elections (Brothers of Italy). Of particular note in Defence is Croseto, co-founder of Meloni's party, a man of strong character who should be key to the continuity of European policy and support for the Atlantic alliance; and Fito, Meloni's "right-hand man" in the Puglia region, who will be another of the "strong" men in the new government, because, together with Tajani, he has the most contacts and influence in EU circles.

In an Executive that has had a large number of independents and, on the other hand, few women (only 6 out of 24), it is worth highlighting Meloni's forcefulness with regard to the portfolio that most interested the former Prime Minister Berlusconi, which was none other than Justice. First he said "no" to Licia Ronzulli, a "fedelissima" politician of the former premier, and then he said "no" again when the former president of the Senate, Maria Elisabetta Alberti Caselati, who was under-secretary of Justice when "Il Cavaliere" was prime minister and who was also a member of the Superior Council of the Magistracy, was proposed as an alternative. And it should not be forgotten that the person who has been at the head of the Council of Ministers for the longest time (we are referring, of course, to Silvio Berlusconi), with more than 3,500 days as "premier" in four different governments, was very interested in controlling Justice because he still has a trial pending, related to the alleged scheme of bribes to the participants in his famous 2010 parties at Villa Arcore, his private residence. The fact is that "Il Cavaliere", at 86 years of age and with two open heart operations behind him (one in 2006 and the other in 2016), wants to avoid a second expulsion from the Senate, after suffering that of 27 November 2013 by virtue of two elements: the final sentence of the "Mondadori Case" and the application of the "Severino Law".

The so-called "Severino Law" was passed during the Monti government by the then Minister of Justice, Paola Severino, and means that anyone holding a public office who has been convicted in cassation cannot continue in that post. So it would be very hard for the Lombard politician and businessman to be expelled from the Senate again, which is why he wanted to put someone he trusted in Justice to repeal the "Severino Law", which he would have been able to do with Ronzulli or Casellati. But, even though Meloni does not intend to get involved in "tragals" (as was made clear by the appointment of Ignazio La Russa as Senate president), if there was one ministry in Roman politics where he had an immovable name, it was Justice. And that name was none other than that of the conservative magistrate Nordio, famous for his outspoken fight against both the "Red Brigades" and the Mafia, and who now, at the age of 75, had for months maintained a very close relationship with the new "premier". Let us not forget that, in the presidential election last January, his candidate was Nordio, but he did not have enough votes to win the election against a Sergio Mattarella who accepted a second consecutive term and won no less than 759 votes, very close to the "record" of the most voted president in republican history (the socialist Sandro Pertini, who won 813 votes in 1978).

In reality, what has become clear with the Meloni government is that, rather than a government sustained by a centre-right coalition, Roman politics has realised that its real supporters are neither the leader of Forza Italia (more concerned with his judicial issues) nor the leader of the League (who is facing his last chance to be president of the Council of Ministers, for which he will trip Meloni up as soon as he can), but the two most prestigious men in the country. One is the President of the Republic, Sergio Mattarella, son and brother of Christian Democrat politicians, several times minister, once deputy prime minister and even a member of the Superior Council of the Magistracy between 2010 and 2014. Mattarella, who is highly appreciated by the transalpine population after having been able to forge up to three different "maggioranzas" in the 18th Legislature, and who imposes himself with enormous forcefulness on the political class because for that he enjoys important powers (such as commissioning the formation of a government, vetoing ministers or bringing forward elections if he deems it necessary), made it clear to Meloni in the "colloquium" they held in El Quirinal on the 21st that he would give Meloni his full support if she abandoned Euroscepticism and began to move towards Europeanism. Hence Meloni left the "colloquium" not only with the "incarico" of forming a government, but, contrary to what normally happens, stating that she accepted "without reservation" this "incarico" and giving the full list of ministers.

The other man who will support Meloni on the same condition (moving towards Europeanism) is none other than Mario Draghi, who retains all his prestige and ascendancy over the EU institutions and who intends to remain active, albeit without an official post. And the best proof of this is that, as acting prime minister, he has literally "stuck" with the rest of the European leaders (above all with the Germans, supporters of nationalist policies such as subsidising energy with their own funds, which the Roman economist and financier did not like at all), and he intends to continue to do so until one day, surely, Mattarella resigns for reasons of age and replaces him as head of state.

From here on, and with the General State Budget well underway and carried out between Draghi, Franco and Meloni, it is time to face some extraordinarily difficult months due to the rising cost of living. The energy dependence affecting the rest of the European Union is particularly damaging for the eurozone's third largest economy, due to its very important industrial apparatus, which requires heavy energy consumption. And with a war between Ukraine and Russia that seems to have no end in sight. All this without forgetting that the country is heavily indebted (152% debt to national GDP, second only to Greece), with declining growth (from 6.6% in 2021 it will fall to -0.7% in 2023, according to the International Monetary Fund), and with the challenge of definitively addressing the gap between the northernmost part of the country (rich and industrialised) and the south (poor, depopulated and with an increasingly stagnant industry). We shall see what this young (45 years old) Roman politician is capable of doing in her first government, with the sole advantage of having a very broad parliamentary "maggioranza".

Pablo Martín de Santa Olalla Saludes is Professor of International Relations at Nebrija University and author of the book 'Historia de la Italia republicana' (Madrid, Sílex Ediciones, 2021).