Opinion

Putin and Biden show their teeth in the Black Sea

photo_camera Joe Biden Vladimir Putin

The concentration of more than 20,000 Russian troops on the border with Ukraine and the announcement of imminent land manoeuvres; the incursion of two US warships into the Bosphorus, preceded by reconnaissance missions in the Black Sea by B-1 bombers; and the Ukrainian army's alert for fear of an offensive that could overflow the autonomous territories of Donetsk and Lugansk. These are all the latest tactical moves in which Vladimir Putin's Russia wants to feel out and test the new US administration of President Joe Biden.

It is unlikely, however, that the apparent escalation of tension will go beyond the red lines that both Moscow and Washington want to set so that both sides know clearly where their adversary stands on the demarcation lines in Eastern Europe.

Let us first look at what might lie behind Russia's manoeuvres. First, a very serious warning to Ukraine that its alleged ambitions to join the EU, and above all NATO, will not be tolerated by Moscow, which could of course revitalise the eastern battlefront at its convenience by graduating the intensity of its shelling of Ukrainian troops and positions, and even invading territories near Donetsk and Luhansk. Putin's final message to Kiev is to forget about regaining both these regions and the annexed Crimea peninsula. The latter guarantees Russia's presence - and naval dominance - in the Black Sea, and that is non-negotiable, even if it means risking a major confrontation. 

For the Ukrainians and Americans to be in no doubt, the Russian president intends, with his latest troop movements, to fix definitively the regiments that he has placed on his side of the border since he encouraged the uprising in the eastern regions of Ukraine. His justification for this remains the same: to protect the population of these territories, whose origins, language and culture are mainly Russian. In doing so, he is also giving new impetus to both autonomous republics, which are only recognised and supported by Russia. And it sends them an unequivocal message of support and readiness to protect them with the full weight of arms if necessary.

And how far is the US president willing to go in his support for Ukraine? That is exactly what Putin wants to test, especially after Kiev's renewed proclamations of its willingness to join NATO to defend itself against Russian threats. And, above all, whether Biden would back a presumed counter-offensive by Kiev to regain lost territories.

Accept the status quo or change it?

It is thus a litmus test for Joe Biden, who, while he has already departed from his predecessor's line on the most pressing issues - pandemic and climate change, essentially - will have to gauge the extent of his behavioural changes in the many hotspots of the globalised world. 

Turkey has already given notice of its acquiescence to the passage of US warships into the Black Sea, where they will remain for the next three weeks. It is assumed that both this naval presence and the intensification of reconnaissance flights by its bombers are in turn intended to show Russia its teeth and warn it that further incursions beyond its borders will not be tolerated.  

The truth is that Ukraine is now absolutely handcuffed, so that what would really and radically change its fate - EU and NATO membership - is the red line that Moscow is unwilling to tolerate. This is the crux of the problem. 

Would the current EU 27 support a rapprochement with Kiev with a view to membership in the medium term? The answer is more than obvious: no. A response seasoned, of course, with all sorts of excuses and equidistances. The EU, at least as far as Russia is concerned, lacks a defined overall policy beyond the usual sanctions, which Moscow uses to justify seeking other ties and alliances, for example with China, to counterbalance its adversaries.