Slovakia: chronicle of a border country
Central and Eastern Europe has not been known for its solidarity with migrants from third countries, especially in the last decade. Last year Poland closed its borders tightly in the face of a wave of people trying to cross the border into Belarus. The refusal to accept refugees from the Middle East in 2015 caused one of the most serious internal crises the EU has faced. The invasion of Ukraine, however, has shown a very different face of Central European countries.
Poland and Hungary, among others that so fervently opposed taking in refugees, have opened their doors to hundreds of thousands of people fleeing Russian terror. But while Warsaw and Budapest get all the media attention, the actions of a small border country have taken a back seat. Slovakia has taken in more than 310,000 refugees since the start of the war in Ukraine, at least 100,000 of them minors. With a population of 5.5 million, refugees make up almost 6% of the total. Today, it would be hard to find a village in Slovakia without at least one Ukrainian family.
The train station in Bratislava, as well as those in the small border towns, was from the first day of the war full of volunteers who provided the new arrivals with accommodation, food, clothing, legal assistance and medical and psychological care. Thousands of people opened the doors of their homes to welcome many of the families who are trying to leave behind the horrors of war. The attitude of the municipalities is commendable. Children and teenagers are immediately enrolled in schools and universities. Adults are receiving financial support, as are all those who have offered their homes as shelters. The mayor of the capital, Matúš Vallo, has opened the first reception centre for refugees from Ukraine. Located in Bratislava's former bus station, the centre will include all the services that the local government and non-governmental organisations are providing to Ukrainians arriving in the Slovak capital.
This solidarity also extends to the national government. Following his visit to Kiev on 8 April, Slovak Prime Minister Eduard Heger said that "Ukraine is our neighbour and friend, and it is not polite to turn our back on a friend in need". A couple of days earlier, Heger announced that he would send Ukraine the Slovak S-300 air defence system, which will contribute significantly to the protection of Ukrainian airspace. In the meantime, the Slovaks will be left unprotected, relying entirely on NATO protection. Slovakia, along with the Czech Republic and Poland, has been one of the most vocal advocates of united EU action in the face of Russia's invasion, including the adoption of a fast-track approach to Ukraine's accession to the European community. They have also called on numerous occasions for more sanctions against Russia.
However, one wonders how long this feeling of solidarity and support for the Ukrainian people will persist. Slovakia has been experiencing rising inflation for years, worsened by the global COVID-19 pandemic. Added to this are the more immediate consequences of the war that are already being felt, such as the significant rise in food and gas prices. In the capital, citizens face an additional problem. The rural exodus or the establishment of numerous foreign companies in Bratislava has led to an acute shortage of accommodation, which has pushed up rental prices. The city is currently in a phase of rapid expansion. However, the construction of new neighbourhoods on the outskirts has already raised many alarms, as the real estate boom could lead to an economic bubble.
Against this backdrop, it seems reasonable to think that the current sense of solidarity, like the economic bubble, could burst in the medium to long term. Depending on the outcome of the war, thousands of refugees could stay for years in Slovakia, while many will never return to their country of origin. This can lead to many tensions with the local population. This is especially relevant in the eastern part of the country. The prime minister recently stated that the arrival of refugees could have the positive consequence of repopulating rural areas as well as stimulating the economy. However, Slovakia has so far shown little ability to integrate other minorities. Will this time be different?
The latest data published by the think tank GLOBSEC on 13 April suggests not. Although pro-Russian sentiment has declined as a result of the invasion of the neighbouring country, 28% of the population perceives Vladimir Putin positively, while 47 % think that Volodymir Zelensky should accept all of Putin's conditions for ending the conflict. Moreover, a considerable part of the population still prefers Slovakia to be under Russian influence rather than that of the United States. In fact, 45% of the population believes that the war was provoked by NATO, led by the United States. This anti-Americanism, and preference for the values promoted by Russia, should not be underestimated, as it could have significant consequences for the country's political landscape.
When the situation ceases to be novel, and solidarity gives way to frustration at the lack of jobs or the country's worsening economic situation, the idea that the Slovak population will turn against the current government's performance cannot be ruled out. Slovakia will have general elections in two years, in which the ruling party will face a pro-Russian, anti-Americanist and populist opposition, represented by the SMER-SD party and its splinter Hlas-SD. Also of concern is the rising popularity of the radical far-right Republika party. Slovakia, along with the other member countries of the Visegrad Group, is gaining more weight in the European community, so it will be more important than ever to keep a close eye on developments in these border countries that could have such an impact on the direction of the EU in the coming months and years.