Spain-Magreb: a game in suspense
Ongoing changes on the international scene, particularly in the Euro-Mediterranean region and North Africa, have shattered all individual countries' forecasts and plans on the geopolitical chessboard. All European, Mediterranean and Maghreb countries are being forced to realign their vision of the future according to the new reality. What was valid until the outbreak of war in Ukraine is no longer valid.
Spain cannot pretend to continue with the same international policy, with the same relations and the same economic, commercial and financial plans, as if nothing had happened. The war in Ukraine is there and it is here to stay. It is an illusion, a deception or an intellectual blunder to sell the public opinion that what is happening in Central Europe does not affect us. People see that this is not the case, and not only because of the increase in energy and product prices, but also because from now on we have to think about new financing, communication, transport and supply networks.
The socio-political crisis, if one can call it that, that Spain is experiencing is not due to Pedro Sánchez's letter to King Mohammed VI saying that "the proposal for autonomy for the Sahara presented by Morocco is the most serious, realistic and credible option" to solve this problem. No. The crisis is global, and takes on a specific form in Spain; but it is the same crisis in France, which has lost its role as arbiter in the Sahel, in Libya and in the Middle East; the same crisis that has pushed Sweden and Finland, two countries with 80 years of neutrality, to seek the shelter of NATO; the same crisis that has shaken the political chessboard in Germany by freezing the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline and reducing supply by 40% through Nord Stream 1, which between them covered a quarter of European consumption with gas from Russia; It is the same crisis affecting Poland, Bulgaria, Finland, the Netherlands, Romania and other European countries, to which Russia has cut off or is threatening to cut off natural gas supplies; the same crisis involving Italy, which used to receive 46% of its gas from Russia, and now, after a 15% reduction, is forced to look for other suppliers, hence the misnamed "honeymoon" between Italy and Algeria, which will be able to increase its gas shipments to Italy, albeit only slightly, due to lack of capacity.
The crisis is global; it affects Spain and North Africa. The critical triangle Madrid-Rabat-Algeria is particularly sensitive to these shocks. Each of the three capitals is obliged to seek support and align with its allies, partners and protective sponsors to mitigate the negative consequences of the crisis.
In this framework of geopolitical changes in the Western Mediterranean, friendships as well as hatreds and resentments are being stirred up. It is here that the effects of Spain's decision to accompany the process of resolving the Western Sahara crisis by becoming actively involved, as befits its historical responsibility as a former colonial power, must be seen. Morocco is cleverly using the backing given by Pedro Sánchez's government to rally further support for its proposal, as evidenced by its massive intervention in the UN Decolonisation Committee a few days ago.
However, the Moroccan government is not merely receiving the dividends of Spanish support, which, it must also be said, is not a recognition of the Sahara's Moroccan status, but rather support for the autonomy proposal, which the UN has already registered for 15 years and which is included in Security Council Resolutions. In no paragraph of Pedro Sánchez's letter to Mohammed VI does it say that "the Sahara is Moroccan", any more than Germany or France did; it is only an affirmation or statement that the proposal made by the Moroccan king in 2007 is considered the most appropriate to definitively resolve this crisis. Nor does it say that it is the only proposal. The only country that has recognised that the Sahara is a sovereign part of Morocco is the United States with Donald Trump's decision. But even so, the White House remains committed to the United Nations framework for negotiations between the parties, as does Spain.
Among these geopolitical disturbances, the deepening of the strategic alliance between Morocco and the United States should be noted. Not only because of the African Lion military exercises again this year, with the participation of a dozen African and European countries alongside the sponsors, the US and Morocco, but more importantly, because of the trip of Morocco's top security official, Abdellatif Hammouch, to Morocco; but more importantly, the trip of the head of Moroccan security, Abdellatif Hammouchi - head of the General Directorate of Security and the General Directorate of Territorial Surveillance - to Washington, where he held working sessions with the heads of US security, Avril Haines, Director of Intelligence, William Burns, head of the CIA, and Christopher Asher, Director of the FBI; The purpose of these meetings was to coordinate activities between Moroccans and Americans to tackle terrorism, cybercrime and organised crime throughout the North African and Sahel region.
The trip is significant because it comes at a time when Algeria is insisting on conducting military exercises near the border with Morocco and displaying a significant part of its modern weaponry.
Both the European Union as a multinational body, and individual European countries such as Italy and Germany, have turned diplomatically towards Algeria to curb its political confrontation with Spain for reasons unrelated to bilateral affairs per se. Algiers has set itself up as a judge in the face of Pedro Sánchez's political stance on the Western Sahara dispute, unilaterally branding it 'contrary to international legality', suspending the bilateral Treaty of Friendship and Good Neighbourliness - something it is entitled to and protected by law - and issuing a Circular from a government agency to suspend commercial transactions to and from Spain - the latter in violation of agreements between Algeria and the European Union.
To try to put out the fire, Italy and Germany have rushed to calm the North African partner. What is presented from the southern shores of the Mediterranean as a demonstration of "Algeria's strength" is in fact a sign of its weakness. Brussels, like Berlin and Rome, is aware of the fragility of the Algerian regime, which takes decisions in the heat of the moment without foreseeing the consequences. Thus, following the EU's firm position in defence of Spain and demanding that Algeria retract its trade rupture, President Abdelmadjid Tebboune abruptly dismissed the finance minister as directly responsible for the mess.
The pan-European organisation, which is aware of Algeria's role, for better or worse, in regional security, does not want to push the political-military regime in Algiers into the arms of Russia, of which it is already an important strategic partner and a major arms customer. Hence its approach to dialogue, in order to prevent a rupture that would inevitably have dire consequences.
For its part, NATO considers Algeria to be "a security risk for Europe", according to a confidential NATO document cited by the US portal Business Insider. The report considers that Algeria "uses gas supplies as a means of political pressure", referring specifically to the recent Spanish case and the closure of the Maghreb gas pipeline that supplied 8 billion cubic metres to Spain and Portugal, leaving a small percentage to Morocco as payment for the use of Moroccan territory. The NATO report notes that, in the long term, the use of gas as a weapon of pressure "would call into question Algeria's status as an energy supplier to Europe". This is something that Algiers is already taking into account, noting the decline in the proportionate share of Algerian gas in European consumption. Faced with the fickleness of the Algerian regime and the decline in its political reliability, the European Union is emphasising energy supplies from Egypt, Israel and Qatar, in addition to the substantial increase in liquefied natural gas arriving from the United States by sea. Algeria notes that it is no longer indispensable in supplying gas to Europe. This does not mean that the bilateral Spanish-Algerian crisis will be resolved any time soon. Algeria's blunder of linking the end of the crisis with Madrid to a hypothetical change of government in Spain makes it lose even more credibility. North African and other Arab and African countries have always tried in some way to influence electoral processes in Western countries, mainly in Europe and the United States. But they have always done so discreetly. The fact that Algiers is now saying so publicly and officially is a political interference that Spain and Europe will not tolerate.