Opinion

Towards a new defence and security architecture

photo_camera NATO Finland Sweden

There will be no turning back now, especially after the historic date of 18 May, which will go down in the annals of posterity, when ambassadors Klaus Korhonen for Finland and Axel Wernhoff for Sweden hand-delivered their application for NATO membership to NATO head Jens Stoltenberg. 

"Joining NATO strengthens Sweden's security, but also that of the Baltic, and joining at the same time as Finland means that we will contribute to the security of northern Europe," Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson announced earlier. 

For Finnish President Sauli Niinistö, this is a historic and decisive step in the face of Putin's warnings that NATO expansion would threaten Russia's security. 

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, accompanied by both ambassadors, was once again smiling, not so relaxed since the Russian invasion began; in his last few appearances he had been grim-faced and hesitant. 

"Today's requests are an historic step.  All Allies agree on the importance of NATO expansion. We agree that we must stand together and that this is a historic moment that we must seize," he said, exultant. 

NATO has lost its fear of Putin. Finland and Sweden have lost their fear of Russia and their respect for the Russian dictator, showing that they are willing to be undeterred. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has shown that Putin's Russia is not a trustworthy neighbour. 

Of his Nordic neighbours' formal application for membership, the Russian dictator declared that his country has "no problem with these states" and asserted that there will be a "military-technical response" if NATO places nuclear arsenals, although he does not see a direct threat at the moment. 

Russia is considering responding in kind to this extension strategy, and has warned that there will be proportional reactions to what Putin described as a "never-ending expansionary policy". For now he has announced that he will install twelve new military bases in the Western Military District. 

Not even two months ago Finland and Sweden could have foreseen such a bizarre reversal of their neighbourly stance. If they join, the whole of northern Europe would come under the Alliance's orbit. NATO would thus see its flank, which for years has been vulnerable, strengthened because of the Nordic countries, only Norway is in the Treaty.

Finnish policy, which for almost eight decades has been a "pax neuter", convinced that it will not go one way or the other, has changed radically over the days since the invasion began on 24 February. For Sweden, the change of position is even more dramatic and has been achieved because the Social Democrats - traditionally reluctant to see Sweden take sides - have decided to endorse the historic shift in Congress. 

Sweden breaks with almost two centuries of neutrality since King Gustav XIV proclaimed it in 1834 and continued the legacy that led the Scandinavian nation to take no position in either World War I or World War II. 

For Finland, which knows what it is like to live under the Slav empire, the relationship with Russia is more one of love and hate at the same time; by joining the Alliance, it reaffirms its conviction as a free and sovereign nation, a European nation by all accounts. 

Putin's military outburst has opened the way for the birth of a new regional and global security and defence architecture.  Finland and Sweden know more than ever that NATO membership is an essential umbrella to curb Putin's imperialist appetites in the Arctic. 

Putin is achieving exactly the opposite of what he intended, says Colonel José Luis Calvo Albero, head of the Coordination and Studies Division in the General Secretariat for Defence Policy.

From the headquarters of the Ministry of Defence in Madrid, the military expert reflects on how NATO's 800-kilometre border with Russia will become more than 2,000 kilometres longer with the accession of Sweden and Finland. 

"The Baltic passes through NATO countries, leaving practically only Kaliningrad and St Petersburg with an exit to the Baltic. Sweden and Finland are not very big countries, but they are militarily relevant, with their own models, and joining NATO will strengthen the Alliance. And, above all, the gesture that two traditionally neutral countries that have maintained a consistent, neutral attitude towards Russia are suddenly joining the Alliance is telling Moscow that it's not going well," he adds. 

Calvo Albero has extensive professional experience, having served at the Italian NATO Rapid Deployment Headquarters and participated in several operations, including in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Afghanistan. 

Colonel, this move by Sweden and Finland not only takes advantage of the current situation, but also looks ahead to the Arctic strategy....

This is another very important point. The Arctic, if we continue with global warming, will logically become a major sea lane between Asia and Europe, and Russia has an advantage. What happens is that all the Nordic and Scandinavian countries, as part of the Alliance, change the balance of power in this area. The north was always seen as one of the weak points because it was only Norway and Iceland... now it is a major change. 

Are we experiencing a new Cold War?

We will have to wait for the end of the conflict, obviously we are seeing armed conflict, relations between the Russian Federation and the rest of the European countries have cooled to the point of not breaking off... but almost. And we will have to see how the conflict ends. 

All Europeans, continues the military officer, hope for a new security balance: "Russia is our neighbour, even if its current behaviour is unacceptable after a war, whatever the outcome it will still be there and we will have to see a new balance with them... that we all feel secure".

From a military point of view, is there really a chance that Ukraine will end up winning the war?

One would have to see what winning the war means. Winning it could mean returning the borders to the situation before the invasion, but with a power as big as Russia it's difficult... it's problematic. It could, from a conventional point of view, with the help of the West and with the sanctions that Russia is suffering, all that support can balance the scales and at a given moment on the battlefield, Ukraine can make progress and even expel Russia from some of the areas it has occupied.

What will have to be guarded against is that Putin's Russia does not suffer an "excessive humiliation" that would lead Putin to take a radical decision such as the use of a tactical nuclear weapon.