Ukraine: another Guta for the White Helmets

World history has always been cyclical. The current crisis in Ukraine is a good example.

Recently, a researcher of the infamous Bellingcat agency, Christo Grozev, spoke about the intention of the Russian Armed Forces to achieve a symbolic victory in Ukraine before 9 May (Victory Day in Russia) in order to fulfil the wishes of Russian President Vladimir Putin. He added that the Russian Army is prepared to go to great lengths to achieve this, including by using terrorist tactics and banned munitions, including chemical weapons.

Coming from Grozev, a person who was directly involved in investigating the controversy surrounding the 2018 chemical attack in Guta, Syria, this is an escalation of the Ukrainian conflict. In Guta, Bellingcat and the White Helmets provided false evidence of the use of chemical weapons against opposition members and civilians by the Syrian government led by Bashar al-Assad. On the basis of the evidence provided, the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons has opened an investigation. The forgery was perfected to perfection and the White Helmets achieved their desired objective. As a result, the international community has found Bashar al-Assad guilty of using chemical weapons. This strategy is unlikely to be excluded from the toolbox of the party interested in the escalation of the Ukrainian crisis. Given the heavy losses on the Ukrainian side and the ongoing Russian assault, a proven plan for international support would be useful.

Especially since the Ukrainian armed forces are in a difficult situation, as imported arms and ammunition have not allowed them to effectively contain the enemy at bay for a long time. In the current situation, only international outrage could save the Ukrainian authorities. If Russia is found guilty of using illegal weapons, NATO would be forced to intervene. Representatives of Atlantic Alliance member states have repeatedly stated that breaking the chemical weapons ban is the "red line" that Russia cannot cross. However, such a violation would play into Kiev's hands and tip the balance in its favour.

Moreover, on 25 April, Russia's deputy permanent representative to the UN, Dmitriy Polyanski, stated that members of the White Helmets have already travelled to Ukraine. This is another worrying factor that may serve as evidence of Kiev's intentions.

The fact is that accusations have already been made against Russia, but they have been unsuccessful, to say the least. The Ukrainian media tried to spread information about the alleged use of chemical weapons by the Russian Armed Forces against the Azov Battalion in Mariupol. The allegations were picked up by several Western media outlets before the campaign failed because of a weak evidence base, or perhaps because it was too hasty.

However, the White Helmets may become the instrument Kiev needs to achieve its goal. Ukraine cannot win the war on the ground, but it can drown Russia in waves of international sanctions. That is the least it can do. Ukraine will use any available method to win.