Ukraine in the Peloponnese
On the first anniversary of the Peloponnesian War, Pericles used the funeral honouring the victims to make a memorable political speech on the superiority of the Athenian political system and the value of democracy. He extolled the memory of the fallen and the virtues of democratic tolerance to bolster the morale of the Athenians during the following stages of the conflict. But the prolongation of the war among the Greeks ended up tearing their civilisation apart, disunited by the rivalry of interests among the city-states, even though all together they had defeated the all-powerful Xerxes just a few years earlier.
After the first year of war in Ukraine, the unity of Atlantic and European democratic countries in their support for Ukrainian sovereignty has not been weakened, despite Putin's attempts to drive a wedge between partners' convictions. First with energy supply cuts and now with the threat of a major offensive in the spring, the defence of which requires more modern and powerful weapons. The allies, including Germany, have responded to the Ukrainian government's call with a commitment of Abrams (US), Challenger (UK) and Leopard (Europe) tanks, as well as Patriot missiles and other assets. President Zelenski has also requested fighter aircraft.
Although it is not yet possible to speak of an escalation of the war, the movements of the contenders do suggest a change in the strategic scenario, which reinforces the possibility that the armed conflict will increase in magnitude and that the theatres of operations will expand. Although the background to these political and tactical moves could also be aimed at strengthening both the Russian threat and the Ukrainian deterrence capacity, in order to provoke the enemy into accepting negotiations on inferior terms. One of the two options, escalation or deterrent threat, and a third, negotiation, will take precedence over the other two in the coming months.
One year into the conflict, it is time to return to the essential meaning of a funeral speech to share the suffering of the victims. And also to make some assessments of the meaning of the war in the geopolitical heart of Central Europe. In February 2022, Russia took a step forward in the Donbas to provoke a step back from the liberal order and gain a more stable geopolitical position for its economic and security interests. But as so often in history, the strategy of strengthening security unilaterally has resulted in the projection of a threat of insecurity in neighbouring countries, which has made Europeans aware of the need for a better coalited and more engaged defence policy. As with any military decision, the war has prompted a review of the strategies of the contenders and the countries concerned. These include NATO's northward enlargement, the adoption of a New Strategic Concept and the implementation of multi-domain defence mechanisms and multi-dimensional political action.
Some powers, such as China and India, have reacted from a position of neutrality. Thinking that political distance would have the effect of strengthening their geopolitical and international interests. But after a pitiful year of armed confrontation, the outcome of the intended objectives has not produced a weakening of the Atlantic Alliance, nor an advance in military positions, nor a greater capacity for influence from the Russian, Chinese or other regional power poles. No one is stronger than it was, and all powers have been weakened economically. With the exception, if anything, of the United States, which has taken advantage of the situation to turn the page on its wartime phase in the Middle East, and to rework a security strategy that is more closely allied with its allies and better defined with the information and practice learned on Ukrainian territory.
On the first anniversary in the Peloponnese, Pericles delivered a demagogic and emotional speech calling on Athenians to fight on in a conflict with an uncertain endgame. Zelenski and Putin today warn of the possibility of a more hostile scenario. Even as evidence suggests that, if strategies are blocked on the ground, the goals of a military offensive are not achievable. And perhaps the time has come to resort to diplomatic negotiation in order to avoid prolonging the suffering and to reach an agreement that is sufficiently acceptable to the parties involved.