What can we expect in 2022?
With two weeks to go until the end of 2021, we can make an estimate of some geopolitical developments that may occur based on what has happened this year:
Ukraine, Russian bear still on the prowl: Tensions in the Ukrainian conflict have escalated this month, with Moscow deploying troops near the separatist republics of Donetsk and Luhansk. Such an event also occurred in April this year. Moscow's calculated brinkmanship in deploying troops along the border is likely to continue this year, especially if Kiev continues to show signs of rapprochement with the West. However, it is highly unlikely that Russia will venture into a war with Ukraine. Such an action would result in NATO intervention and Russia's ailing economy would struggle to sustain the war in the long run. For Putin, it is better to keep the West in fear of intervention by deploying troops than by waging war. This strategy is likely to get Kiev to give up on negotiating with Russia on conflict resolution.
Sahel: Paris leaves and uncertainty sets in: France will almost certainly continue to reduce its presence in Mali, whether or not there is a change in the Elysée. The French withdrawal this month from Timbuktu in the north of the country is a case in point. Such a withdrawal leaves a security vacuum in the north of the country that will most likely be exploited by terrorist groups, as both the Malian army and the Minusma Blue Helmets lack the resources and popular support to ensure order. As a result, we could see a repeat of what happened in 2012, when a Tuareg insurgency took control of the north of the country and almost took control of the country. We will also have to watch out for possible Russian intervention through the mercenaries of the Wagner Group. This action is gaining acceptance in Mali and would be an ideal coup for Moscow to promote Russia as a security guarantor on the African continent.
Israel-Palestine: the never-ending story lives on. For eleven days in May, the world witnessed how the Arab-Israeli conflict - perhaps one of the most complicated to resolve in contemporary history - was still ongoing. The cessation of hostilities has not brought an end to the violence, as demonstrated in November when a Hamas terrorist fired on Israeli police and civilians in Jerusalem's Old City. Recently a new phenomenon is occurring: stabbings and assaults by Palestinian youths unaffiliated with Palestinian organisations on Israeli civilians and police. These attacks are likely to fuel tensions in the area and could result in a repeat of May.
Afghanistan: humanitarian catastrophe in sight. In August, we watched as, in the space of a week, the Taliban returned to power in Afghanistan. Since then, the humanitarian and security situation has deteriorated. In addition to the lack of international aid and warnings from the United Nations of a foreseeable famine and refugee crisis, the brutality of ISIS-K, with its bloody terrorist attacks, has become the main threat to the country's security. Such a scenario will most likely result in the country becoming a hotbed of instability that may affect the EU, especially if there is a refugee crisis. Such a crisis would revive tensions between Brussels and the countries bordering Afghanistan, which are unlikely to accept being the gatekeepers of refugees bound for Europe.
Morocco and Algeria: the Maghreb on edge. The two countries, with already poor relations, demonstrated their bad relationship this year by breaking off diplomatic relations. Since then, the Sahrawi conflict, where Algeria is the Polisario Front's godfather, Rabat aspires to diplomatic recognition of its sovereignty over Western Sahara, and Morocco's interest in acquiring Israeli military technology have fuelled tensions. The conflict over Western Sahara is likely to influence the improvement or degradation of the relationship, especially if incidents such as the Moroccan bombing of truck drivers in Bir Lehlou recur. Such incidents will increase tension in the area, with the possibility of a conflict between Rabat and Algiers looming.
Although the above are predictions - there is always the possibility that they will or will not come true - these five events should be taken into consideration in the new year. Their political consequences could be negative for Spain. To that end, predicting future scenarios will help us to be better prepared to deal with them should the situation worsen and to take appropriate decisions.