Algeria joins Turkey in the Libyan crisis and calls for elections
Algeria and Turkey have decided to close ranks with the Libyan National Unity Government led by Abdel Hamid Dbeibé, albeit with different approaches. Algeria, with Ankara's approval, is promoting the holding of "transparent" elections in the country with the aim of renewing institutions and, above all, putting an end to the mandate of the combative House of Representatives in Tobruk, a body hostile to the incumbent government in Tripoli, which is accused of systematically boycotting the already stagnant process of political transition in Libya.
Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, a strongman in Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's government, visited Algeria on Monday to meet with the country's President Abdelmadjid Tebboune and his counterpart Ramtane Lamamra, as part of the first meeting of their working teams, who have come together to deepen their bilateral relations. At the press conference that followed, the heads of Turkish and Algerian diplomacy coordinated their positions in order to find a way out of the Libyan crisis, for which they called for general elections. Their interests, however, do not entirely coincide.
The scenario is complex. Two administrations are vying for control of Libya. One, based in the west and based in Tripoli, is that of Dbeibé's own interim government, which has the institutional backing of Mohamed Menfi's Presidential Council. Another, based in the east and based in Tobruk, is controlled by the parliament headed by Aguila Saleh. The legislative seat in turn operates with the support of the parallel government of Fathi Bashagha - appointed by this House and based in Sirte - and the National Liberation Army (NLA) of Marshal Khalifa Haftar, the real man.
Another contested institution is the High Council of State, created at the behest of the United Nations in 2015. The consultative body headed by Khalid Almishri is divided and has not taken sides. Throughout this time, it has tried unsuccessfully to act as a bridge between the two administrations.
Almishri is of Turkish origin and belongs to the Islamist Justice and Construction Party, affiliated to the Muslim Brotherhood, an asset Erdoğan counts on to further his interests. Although the president of the High Council of State has had no qualms about criticising Dbeibé's executive, a priori ideologically close to him. In November, he described the GUN as a 'militia government' when armed factions loyal to Dbeibé prevented a meeting in Tripoli between GUN members and members of the Tobruk House of Representatives.
The political scene remains deadlocked. Dbeibé remains in power one year after the expiry of the transitional period agreed by the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum (LDPF), which set elections for 24 December 2021. The elections never took place. Obstructionism in the Tobruk parliament prevented the adoption of a common electoral law to facilitate the process.
The House escalated its political war with Tripoli in February with the appointment of Bashagha as prime minister of a parallel executive. The former military officer had headed the interior portfolio in former Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj's Government of National Accord - the predecessor of Dbeibé's UN-backed Government of National Unity. The legislature, which has not been subject to elections since 2014, thus consummated a new institutional fragmentation.
The international community continues to recognise the legitimacy of Dbeibé's incumbent government despite the expiry of the deadlines set for the elections and the fact that he has failed to fulfil many of the promises with which he was elected by the FDPL. The Misurata businessman, virtually unknown before taking office as prime minister, pledged not to run for the presidency in the next elections. However, he took advantage of his growing popularity in the coastal regions of Tripolitania and Cyrenaica thanks to the economic and social aid policies promoted by his government and, above all, a dysfunctional judiciary, to present his candidacy and have it accepted.
Moreover, according to the Benghazi-based portal Libya Update, Dbeibé reportedly asked Libya's former mufti Sadiq al-Ghariani, dismissed by parliament and perceived as a Salafist preacher, for the backing of Islamist militias linked to him in Tripoli to fend off rival attacks from the east in exchange for funding for his religious schools. This would not be Dbeibé's first approach to radical Islamism. In February, according to the same media, the prime minister allowed the return to the country of the politician and military leader Abdelhakim Belhadj, a member of the disbanded al-Qaeda-linked anti-Gadhafi Islamic Fighting Group. He was in exile in Qatar.
Turkey and Algeria are on good terms with the incumbent Dbeibé government, but there are major differences in their approach to the Libyan crisis. Ankara has become the main ally of the Misurata businessman and has taken advantage of his cabinet by concluding lucrative Memoranda of Understanding (MoU) in the commercial and energy areas with its members, contested by other political actors in Libya. Moreover, they share a common political agenda. Dbeibé is perceived as a moderate Islamist in favour of economic openness.
But Erdoğan is committed to maintaining a certain strategic ambiguity over the dispute. Amid its strategy to redirect bilateral relations with Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the rest of its regional rivals with a view to defusing the pressing domestic economic crisis, Ankara has opted to speak out in favour of holding elections. Meanwhile, it keeps its troops deployed in the country, obstructing the transition in the same way as Russia, which operates through the Wagner Group mercenaries.
Algeria's weight in Libya is nowhere near comparable to that of Turkey. Indeed, Algeria's involvement in the crisis in its North African neighbour has been far less significant than might be expected given its geographical proximity and the implications it may have for the country. Analysts attribute this phenomenon to Algeria's internal situation, marked by political instability and the outbreak of the Hirak affair. Now, the economic recovery, boosted by hydrocarbon revenues, has encouraged Algiers to make a statement.
Algeria's president explicitly acknowledged his support for Dbeibé's government until elections are held. Thus, Abdelmadjid Tebboune decided to counter the position of Morocco, a staunch enemy in the Maghreb region, which supports the troika made up of Aguila Saleh, Fathi Bashagha and Khalifa Haftar. In the process, it closed the door to the instability that, according to the Algerian regime's top brass, Bashagha's arrival in Tripoli to replace the prime minister recognised by the international community would bring.
Analyst Jalel Harchaoui, consulted on other occasions by Atalayar, assures the United States Institute of Peace that he "would not speak of close coordination between Algiers and Ankara" on this issue. "Algeria currently provides some token training to the Defence Ministry in Dbeibé. But if war breaks out, Algeria's military support for the pro-Dbeibé side may end up paling in comparison to that of Turkey, Britain, Italy and other pro-Tripoli foreign actors. Algeria is simply not very active in Libya. One reason is that Tebboune and his powerful chief of staff, Saïd Chengriha, do not understand each other.
