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Argentina achieves its highest level of exports to Brazil

In the month of October Argentina scored exports worth US$1.218 billion directed to Brazil, its main trading partner
Argentine President Alberto Fernandez (R) and Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro shaking hands before posing for a group photo of world leaders at the G20 World Leaders Summit on October 30, 2021 at the "La Nuvola" convention center

AFP PHOTO / ARGENTINE PRESIDENCY / ESTEBAN COLLAZO  -   Argentine President Alberto Fernandez (R) and Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro shaking hands before posing for a group photo of world leaders at the G20 World Leaders Summit on October 30, 2021 at the "La Nuvola" convention center

Argentina has not experienced an increase of that magnitude since September 2014, according to a report by the consulting firm Abeceb.

From this same report, it has been possible to observe a consecutive growth during the past ten months.

However, it was not until the month of October that a year-on-year increase of 50.7% has been detected, due to the increase in shipments to Brazil, caused by the placements of vehicles, corn and wheat. 

The exchange rate and recent fluctuations of market indices are displayed on an electronic board on the floor of Brazil's B3 Stock Exchange in Sao Paulo
REUTERS/AMANDA PEROBELLI - The exchange rate and recent fluctuations of market indices are displayed on an electronic board on the floor of Brazil's B3 Stock Exchange in Sao Paulo

In the past ten months, exports to Brazil increased to 45.4%, amounting to US$9.36 billion.

Since 2018, Argentina also scored the highest record, with a year-on-year increase in imports from Brazil of 37.6%, amounting to US$1.126 billion.

The main imports from Brazil were iron and steel laminates, although there were also imports of automotive parts and pieces. 

Cargo ship is loaded with wheat at Terminal 3 in Rosario, Santa Fe province, Argentina.
AFP/CARLOS CARRION - Cargo ship is loaded with wheat at Terminal 3 in Rosario, Santa Fe province, Argentina

Over the past ten months, Argentina has recorded a year-on-year increase in imports from Brazil of 46.3%, implying a value of US$9,869 million.

These increases have resulted in Argentina registering in October, in its trade balance with Brazil, an increase in income over expenditure of US$ 92 million, which is known in the business and economic world as a surplus.

Due to this, a positive balance has been achieved for the second consecutive month in Argentina, thus also achieving an improvement from the deficit of US$ 9 million in October last year. 

However, since January Argentina has accumulated a deficit in its exchanges with Brazil amounting to 510 million dollars. 

The Argentine peso lost value on Wednesday on the black market, where the dollar reached a record high of 199 pesos, while the official exchange rate was 105.38 pesos to the US dollar, amid restrictions on the purchase of foreign currency
AFP/ JUAN MABROMATA - The Argentine peso lost value on Wednesday on the black market, where the dollar reached a record high of 199 pesos, while the official exchange rate was 105.38 pesos to the US dollar, amid restrictions on the purchase of foreign currency

According to Abeceb, the result of the figure achieved last October "is influenced by the restrictions it imposes", referring to automotive imports, and "the difficulties faced by Brazil in its supply of semiconductor chips which affects its exports", referring to automobiles.

Likewise, a large increase in Argentine exports of electric energy to Brazil at very high prices has been detected, "as a result of the worst drought in Brazil in 90 years which affected its hydroelectric generation", thus increasing the value by 670 million dollars.

It should be noted that this expansion of bilateral trade between Argentina and Brazil reflects the economic recovery that both countries are going through, mainly in industry.

However, since 2004, it has been observed that, after a recovery in trade on the part of Argentina, it has been followed by a greater trade red due to industrial asymmetries between both countries, with the exception of 2019.

Maturity of principal and interest on Argentina's debt with the IMF
AFP/AFP - Maturity of principal and interest on Argentina's debt with the IMF

According to Abeceb, "This fact takes relevance considering that we expect the domestic economy to grow faster than the Brazilian economy in 2021 (+7.9% vs +4.9% y/y) and 2022 (+2% vs +1.2%)."

Despite this improvement in exports, the share of Argentine production in Brazilian purchases stagnated in the past quarter. 

Exports to Brazil increased to 45.4%, a higher percentage compared to the rest of Brazil's purchases from other destinations in the last year, which increased by 38.3%.

Latin America Coordinator: José Antonio Sierra.