Neither candidate managed to reach 50% of the vote in Sunday's elections and everything points to a second round with a strengthened Bolsonaro

Bolsonaro and Lula will fight it out for the presidency of Brazil in a second round of elections

photo_camera PHOTO/FILE - Luiz Inacio Lula Da Silva

30 October is already marked in red on the agenda of all Brazilians. That is when the Cariocas will go to the polls for the second time this month with the aim of electing the new president that the first round of elections has not been able to elect. Lula da Silva's victory, as predicted by the polls, was not as resounding as expected, and Jair Bolsonaro emerged stronger after an election that was marked by the polarisation of Brazilian politics. Proof of this is the fact that the two main candidates received 91.62% of the votes, leaving less than 10 points behind the other alternatives to the presidency.

The defeat of the leader of the Brazilian hard right, Jair Bolsonaro, seemed clear. At least that is what the polls said, which announced a comfortable victory for the party led by Lula, the Workers' Party. The former president of Brazil from 2003 to 2011 obtained 48.34% of the votes, which was not enough to lead his country again. For its part, Bolsonaro's Liberal Party obtained 43.28%, thus forcing a second round that tastes like a victory.

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The other side of the election is the lack of strength shown by the third options. The more moderate right-wing Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB) led by Simone Tebet has come close to five million votes, which translates into just over 4%. On the other hand, the social democrat Ciro Gomes did not get more than 3% in his fourth attempt to win the presidency, which represents a failure of his proposal. These figures reaffirm the polarisation that was presumed during the last weeks of the campaign, and leave everything open for a second round that will take place in four weeks' time.

On 30 October, Brazilians will have a second chance to elect a new president, although the outcome will be very different from last Sunday's elections. For the latter, Lula's victory seemed a guarantee, and the fact that his return to the presidency has not been consummated means that the leftist will have to beat Bolsonaro at the polls, who, after being defeated in the polls, has won enough votes to face off in a second round to renew his position at the head of Brazil. He will do so, moreover, reinforced by the support shown by the public, greater than the polls indicated.

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Despite the fact that the polls gave Lula da Silva victory, the former president, although optimistic, never wanted to take it for granted. "I'm not going to comment on the polls, only on the results at five o'clock in the afternoon. We have to wait for the chicken to lay the egg", said the leader of the Workers' Party. However, he already anticipated that "the most fanatical Bolsonaristas will have to adapt to the majority of society", something that, for the moment, will have to wait at least until 30 October.

The Planalto Palace will have to wait for its new leader. Even though it will be very difficult to win, the still Brazilian president assured that "the expectation is of victory". And the conclusion that can be drawn from this first round is that the polls - which predicted a difference of up to 14 points between Lula and Bolsonaro - are no guarantee of anything, and in view of what has happened, they are not even close to being so.

Americas Coordinator: José Antonio Sierra.
 

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