China may mark a turning point in the Ukrainian war
Diplomacy is a key tool for de-escalating the conflict in Ukraine. In addition to dialogue with one of the main actors in this war, Vladimir Putin, something that several international political leaders such as Emmanuel Macron, Olaf Scholz, Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Naftali Bennett have done, it is necessary to engage in talks with countries that could play a key role in the war.
In this regard, US President Joe Biden will hold a telephone conversation with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, an important ally of Moscow. Xi, moreover, has in his hand the power to mark a turning point in Ukraine. Earlier this week, several US media outlets, citing senior officials, claimed that Russia had requested military assistance from China, a claim that was later denied by both Beijing and Moscow. The Chinese government accused Washington of spreading "disinformation" with "malicious" intentions, while the Kremlin stressed that the Russian military has sufficient military influence to "fulfil all its objectives".
Nevertheless, members of the US administration continue to warn that China is "considering providing military or financial assistance to Russia", according to CNN. Even senior officials, such as Antony Blinken, have admitted US concerns on this point. "We are concerned that they [China] are considering directly assisting Russia with military equipment for use in Ukraine," the secretary of state revealed. Earlier, another US official told Reuters that Washington alerted its NATO allies to Beijing's willingness to supply weapons to the Russian military.
For this reason, coupled with the latest developments in Ukraine, the phone conversation between Washington and Beijing will take place at a key moment. Ties between the two powers threaten to cool further as Russian attacks intensify and even reach Lviv, a city just 70 kilometres from the Polish border. Lviv has so far been considered the safest place in the country, where citizens from other cities and international diplomatic delegations have flocked. It is also one of the main entry and exit points for humanitarian aid and refugees.
Blinken stressed that Biden would make it clear during the call that any action China takes to support the aggression will have consequences. "We will not last in imposing costs," he remarked. The US diplomacy chief also called on China to influence Putin to try to bring about change in Ukraine.
"We continue to call on all nations, especially those that have direct influence over Russia, to use that power to force Moscow to end this war," Blinken said, pointing directly to China and stressing its "responsibility to use its influence" over Moscow. However, the secretary of state also recalled that Beijing has still not condemned Russian aggression.
"China seems to be moving in the opposite direction," he added during a press conference this week. The Chinese authorities have so far avoided using the word 'invasion' to refer to the war in Ukraine, while condemning Western economic sanctions against Russia. Beijing has also said it supports Moscow's "security concerns" but also "respects" Ukraine's sovereignty.
White House press secretary Jen Psaki explained that the conversation is part of "Washington's ongoing efforts to keep the lines of communication open between the United States and China", since, in addition to discussing Ukraine, they will address other issues of common interest.
The call is not the first contact between the US and China since the war in Ukraine began. Earlier this week, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan met in Rome with Chinese diplomat and former foreign minister Yang Jiechi. The Chinese side described the talks as "frank, deep and constructive", while Sullivan said there would be consequences if Beijing backed Moscow.
During the meeting in the Italian capital they also discussed Taiwan, an autonomous island that China considers part of its territory. The conflict between Taipei and Beijing has intensified in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The Asian giant has criticised Taiwan's delivery of humanitarian aid to Kiev and sanctions on Moscow, accusing the island's government of "taking advantage of the difficulties of others". Russian aggression has also prompted Taiwan's armed forces to step up their military preparations for a possible invasion by Beijing. Earlier this week, 400 reservists began new and more intensive training.
If China finally decides to back Russia militarily, the course of the war in Ukraine would change dramatically. Moreover, in the event of such a decision, Beijing would be making an appeal to NATO, which is opposed to deploying troops on Ukrainian territory.
