Much of Argentina, Chile and Uruguay is reeling under drought conditions. During the last four months of 2022, the region has received less than half the average rainfall, resulting in the lowest levels in 35 years

Climate change is not responsible for drought in Argentina, Uruguay and Chile, but it does exacerbate water scarcity

photo_camera FAO/Sandro Cespoli - Sorghum cultivation in Uruguay.

Argentina, Uruguay and Chile are experiencing extreme drought and high temperatures, causing crop failures and threatening food security, access to water, people's health and ecosystems.
 
Scientists from Argentina, Colombia, France, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, the United States and the United Kingdom have collaborated to assess the extent to which human-induced climate change has altered the probability and intensity of the low rainfall that has caused the drought, focusing on the three particularly severe months from October to December 2022.
 
The World Weather Attribution analysis has concluded that climate change is not the main driver of reduced precipitation. However, it has shown that climate change has led to increased temperatures in the region, which is likely to have reduced water availability and worsened drought impacts.
 
The high impact of drought on agriculture and economic activity highlights the need to reduce vulnerability to rainfall shortfalls, take measures to improve water management and drought anticipation through seasonal forecasting, and establish insurance mechanisms to help farmers cope with these events and improve resilience.

Economic impact

Argentina, despite being one of the world's leading wheat exporters, expects agricultural exports by 2023 to fall by 28% compared to 2022 levels. According to World Weather Attribution reports, crop health in Argentina is the worst in 40 years, with severe impacts expected on wheat and soybean harvests. Between January 2022 and January 2023, Argentina's grain and oilseed export earnings have already fallen by 61%.

Uruguay, with 60% of its territory affected by extreme drought, declared an agricultural emergency in October 2022. More than 75,000 people suffer from lack of access to drinking water and access to water for crops and livestock is also limited.

Chile, meanwhile, is experiencing the longest drought in the region in at least a thousand years, according to the World Meteorological Organisation's latest report on the state of the climate in Latin America. After 13 years of low rainfall, the situation exacerbates the drying trend and puts the country at the forefront of the region's water crisis.

Extreme temperatures

The region also suffers from intense heat waves, the frequency and duration of which have increased due to climate change. In the recent study conducted in the area, scientists from the World Meteorological Attribution found that human-induced climate change has made extreme temperatures in December 2022 about 60 times more likely.
 
According to Argentina's National Meteorological Service, the months of November to January have been the hottest on record and the eighth heatwave of the season is already being recorded. This has caused devastating fires in central Argentina, and also in Chile, melting Andean glaciers, damaging air quality and sending plumes of smoke across the Pacific.

chile-argentina-glaciares
Three consecutive years of La Niña

A likely major factor in the shortage of precipitation is that South America is currently experiencing the effects of a third consecutive year of La Niña, a natural phenomenon that has a major influence on weather patterns in various parts of the world and causes an increased likelihood of lower rainfall in many parts of this region.
 
The World Meteorological Organisation will publish its next update on El Niño, La Niña and global seasonal climate at the end of February.

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