The pandemic and its confinements and restrictions on movement have been exploited by the terrorist group because countries' capacities to control security have been weakened

Daesh increases his threat again in Syria and Iraq, according to the UN

photo_camera PHOTO/REUTERS - A member of the Daesh flies the flag of Daesh in Raqqa (Syria)

Daesh is very present in Iraq and Syria.

Four Iraqi soldiers were killed after Daesh militants opened fire on a checkpoint belonging to the Iraqi security forces in the south-eastern province of Kirkuk, Iraq, according to local media. In a statement issued on Monday by the Iraqi Security Media Cell, "Daesh terrorists opened fire on a station in the Daquq area on the Kirkuk road, killing four soldiers.  Kirkuk is located in a disputed territory between the central government in Baghdad and the Kurdistan regional government in Erbil. These clashes have allowed a security vacuum to form that has been used by Daesh's militants to reclaim the area.

An upsurge in attacks in Iraq by alleged Daesh militants since the beginning of the year is increasing past fears that the bloodiest terrorist group is regrouping and may again threaten the stability of the country. In a report published on 24 August, the United Nations drew attention to the rise in the terrorist threat, where the COVID-19 pandemic has strengthened the terrorist groups. "Since the beginning of the year, we have observed regional disparities in the trajectory of the threats. In the conflict areas, the threat has increased, as evidenced by the consolidation and intensification of Daesh's activity in Iraq and the Levant," said the head of the United Nations Council against Terrorism, Vladimir Voronkov.

Basora

According to Voronkov, over 10,000 of Daesh's militants are still active in Iraq and Syria, two years after the group's caliphate was declared defeated. "A greater punishment against the Crusaders is coming once the caliphate achieves victory and is established once again," said Daesh's spokesman, Abu Hamza al-Qurayshi, on 28 May through a publication in the Telegram messenger application. According to al-Qurayshi, the fighters of the terrorist group "will begin to increase their attacks against the Crusaders since the United States' withdrawal from Iraq".

Consolidation of the group in some areas of the Middle East

The latest report of the Pentagon inspector general recorded more than 400 attacks allegedly carried out by Daesh in Iraq between April and June this year, 70 of which took place in the province of Kirkuk. Daesh has carried out over 100 attacks in Iraq between 23 July and 19 August, according to the terrorist group's propaganda newspaper, Al-Naba. Iraqi media have reported that both the Iraqi defence ministry and the Peshmerga affairs ministry (the term used by the Kurds to refer to armed Kurdish combatants) agreed last month to establish three joint coordination rooms with the aim of eliminating Daesh's cells active in the disputed provinces of Diyala, Kirkuk and Nineveh. Since 2017, Daesh has been taking advantage of the security gaps in these disputed regions between Iraq and Kurdistan, despite his military defeat.

In Syria, at the beginning of the week, the Syrian Arab Army, together with the Russian Army, carried out a large-scale operation to combat Daesh that ended with the death of 327 militants of the terrorist group. A spokesman for the Russian forces in Syria, according to the Al-Masdar News, said on Tuesday that: "The bombing of the Russian Air Force and the Syrian Air Force, as well as the artillery bombing in the 'White Desert', resulted in the liquidation of 327 militants, the destruction of 134 shelters, 17 lookouts, seven ammunition warehouses and five underground deposits for weapons and ammunition".

Fuerzas democráticas sirias

The significant increase in Daesh's attacks in both Syria and Iraq has consolidated his position in areas of the Middle East. "The Islamic States in Iraq and the Levant, after their loss of territory, have begun to assert themselves in both the Syrian Arab Republic and Iraq, increasing increasingly bold insurgent attacks, calling for and planning the escape of Daesh's fighters from detention centres and exploiting weaknesses in the security environment of both countries", warned a report submitted to the UN Security Council by the agency's Monitoring Team in February 2020. This document also addresses the problem caused by the security vacuum that developed after the recent partial withdrawal of US forces. 

Most dangerous group in West Africa

In Africa, Daesh has become a constant threat to the armies of the Sahel and Great Sahara countries. The armed forces of countries such as Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali have been unable to cope with the violence perpetrated by this Jihadist formation. At the beginning of February, in view of the worsening of the situation in the so-called "triple border" of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, France reinforced its military presence in the Sahel by sending 600 soldiers, bringing the total detachment to 5,100. According to the United Nations, the self-styled Islamic State in West Africa (ISWAP) has over 3,500 members. Furthermore, ISWAP has continued to strengthen its ties with Daesh's Greater Sahara branch (ISGS), becoming the most dangerous group in the tri-border area.

Daesh's role in North Africa reached its peak when in 2016 Boko Haram swore loyalty to them, as did other Jihadist groups. Daesh's victories led to major disagreements between Jihadist groups and led to betrayals within al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). Daesh's successes between 2014 and 2016 tipped the balance in favour of his side of the leadership of the Jihad in Africa, but al-Qaeda managed to resist and AQIM improved its positions in the fight for the leadership of Jihadist terrorism on the continent.

Bagdad

Mr Voronkov also warned of the strengthening of the terrorist group and its branches in places such as Libya, a country in the throes of conflict, despite having a few hundred fighters. A study conducted by the Institute for Strategic Studies of the US Army War College stated that Daesh was "regrouping, quietly expanding his capacity until he can become strong enough again to be a problem for Libya". The report explains the group's modus operandi: "They engage in small-scale attacks and skirmishes necessary to establish themselves in the criminal smuggling network that links sub-Saharan Africa with the coast of Libya in the north. 

In 2016, the forces of the internationally recognised government of National Accord (GNA) expelled the terrorist group from the coastal town of Sirte. This was the largest territory controlled by the group outside its then centre of operations in Syria and Iraq. After its expulsion, most of its activity was directed to Fezzan, in the southern Libyan desert. Meanwhile, in Europe the threat comes mainly from local radicalised terrorists via the internet. Voronkov pointed out that several European countries have reported a growing problem with violent right-wing extremists, which may require diverting intelligence resources hitherto used to monitor Jihadists.

Same techniques as before 

Although the Daesh caliphate collapsed in 2018, local anti-terrorist operations continue throughout the region, and the surviving fighters of the terrorist group are returning to the guerrilla warfare tactics that preceded their advances in Iraq and Syria since 2014. In December 2018, President Donald Trump claimed that he had beaten Daesh. However, bearing in mind the numbers and the latest news, doubts about this statement are many. 
 

AFP Mapa


The terrorist group lost all its territories; tens of thousands of its fighters were killed or imprisoned and its former leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, is dead, but in an interview for The Atlantic magazine in February this year, the prime minister of Iraqi Kurdistan, Masrour Barzani, warned that Daesh not only exists but is even more capable of fighting now than years ago: "Daesh is still very much intact. Yes, they have lost much of their leadership. They have lost many capable men. But they have also managed to gain more experience and recruit more people around them. So they should not be taken lightly.

More than five years after the US-led war, the group still has some 20,000 fighters in Iraq and Syria, according to Barzani. A Pentagon report last summer put the number of Daesh's fighters at between 14,000 and 18,000 and estimates by US and UN analysts and officials put them at around 10,000. The reason for this revival, according to the Kurdish leader, is the persistence of the same conditions that allowed him to rise in 2014. Syria continues to be in chaos and in Iraq both local and US leaders have failed to solve problems such as corruption, bad governance and the economic crisis for nearly 20 years.

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