The end of neutrality in Europe

Putin's ultra-nationalism calls into question the policy of non-alignment. 

Europe says goodbye to neutrality. Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, now in its first year of history, has decidedly changed the tone of European politics. Berlin has broken taboos on its defence policy, Sweden and Finland have called for immediate NATO membership and the Baltic states have ruled with an iron fist on matters relating to Moscow. This has had the effect of calling into question the neutral policy of countries that have historically supported it. 

Heated debates in the parliaments of Switzerland, Austria, Sweden and Finland have been orbiting for months over the very meaning of the term neutral. Pressure from European partners has been well deserved. "In the face of aggression, no one can be neutral. To be neutral means to be on the side of the aggressor. No one can live safely in a world where the illegal use of force is normalised". These were the resolute words of Josep Borrell, the EU's High Representative for Foreign Policy. "There are countries that say they are neutral. In doing so, they are supporting Russia", noted Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba. The statements resonated with European consciences.  

The explicit mention prompted the Swiss parliament to set up a debate in September 2022 to dispel doubts. "Neutrality is not a rigid weapon, but an instrument of foreign, security and economic policy, which must be adapted to the general political climate," the Federal Department of Foreign Affairs clarified. The small Alpine confederation is very clear about who is the aggressor and who is the victim, as the Swiss Federal Council demonstrated when it joined the sanctions at the beginning of the conflict, but sending arms to the Ukrainian army is a step of even greater calibre.

Switzerland's paradox condemns it to take sides in situations like this. Switzerland has one of the largest arms manufacturing lobbies in the world, but it cannot supply arms directly to a country at war. For this reason they had to re-export the German Gepard ammunition they sent to Ukraine, which ran out of ammunition.  

In any case, the question of whether or not to send ammunition to Zelenski's troops is an issue that still needs a final decision and probably a referendum to make the necessary legislative changes. For the time being, the president of the confederation, Alain Berset of the Swiss Socialist Party, is clear: "The government's position is clear. It also corresponds to my personal position. Swiss weapons must not be used in wars". The right, which holds the largest bloc of seats in parliament, is banking on further action against Russia.

"Our security position is internationally ridiculed by some and perceived as weak by others," weighed Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer. Without meaning to, it was an announcement that puts Austria on an equal footing with the other neutral European countries that share this article in their constitution: Ireland, Serbia, Moldova, Liechtenstein, Malta and Cyprus.

Austria has taken in thousands of Ukrainian refugees who have testified to the aggressiveness of the invasion. But a year into the war, as Western allies reaffirmed their commitment to Kiev and increased sanctions against Moscow, Nehammer reiterated his neutral stance that seeks to change an increasingly active minority in the country. In an open letter, politicians, military officers and former diplomats urged Vienna to consider decades of non-alienation. The chancellor responded bluntly: 'Austrian neutrality is a policy of peace in action, it is defensive neutrality'. As the Financial Times reports, the speech was booed by the opposition and watched from the public gallery by Ukrainian diplomats. The debate is on the table.

The situation is different for Moldova. In addition to common borders, the country shares with Ukraine threats from Russia, ongoing airspace violations and hybrid warfare through Kremlin disinformation. For the moment, there is no fear of an 'imminent military threat' from Moscow, but Chisinau remains vigilant. Moldovan President Maia Sandu has consistently called on the West to help change this threat. "We need support to modernise our security and border control. I think we need to work together and be more efficient in dealing with Russian propaganda. It is extremely difficult for us to deal with this problem alone," Sandu told the Munich Security Conference. 

But the situation in Moldova, again, is different. The pro-Russian Shor party has been responsible for encouraging protests for the president's resignation and has spread rumours of a Moscow puppet government or a Russian assault on the separatist region of Transnistria, the enclave where Russia maintains a strong military presence. These Kremlin-induced threats induce Moldova to abandon its neutral policy. "I think we should have common approaches to combat disinformation, pro-war propaganda," Sandu argued. "Today one of the lines of Russian propaganda is that neutrality means that the country should not strengthen its defence sector, which makes no sense at all. But, unfortunately, there are many people who are afraid of war and swallow this kind of propaganda," he lamented.

However, leaving neutrality behind is on the table. The Moldovan president acknowledged that now is not the time to change this policy, but said that Moldova "must be part of the new European security architecture". Sweden and Finland, which share the same fears, have already taken the first step. 

There is an open path to leaving behind the policy of non-alignment. NATO membership has always been on the table for Swedes and Finns, but Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Moscow's threats have removed all doubts. Even more so with US President Joe Biden's succulent message in the first week of the Ukrainian invasion that he has repeated ever since: "We will defend every inch of NATO territory".  

The message was aimed at the Baltic countries, members of the Alliance because of their closeness to Russia, fearing that Putin would not stop at Ukraine alone, but Finland and Sweden also saw the Russian wolf's ears and accelerated membership plans. Public opinion endorsed this.

"Just two years ago, everyone was arguing about whether or not we should join NATO, and even those in favour of membership thought that it was not yet a topical issue and would only become so in the future. With the invasion of Ukraine, the government and all Finns were in favour of membership and thought it was self-evident," says Emilia Taimen, a student of political history at the University of Helsinki, in a conversation with this newspaper. 

"Finland has finally woken up from the ages of Finlandisation," Finnish student Kasper Kankkunen tells Atalayar, referring to the latter term as the West's way of referring to Finland's neutrality during the Cold War. And break this policy he did. It was at the NATO summit in Madrid on 29-30 June 2022 that the two Nordic countries abandoned their historical status of neutrality by applying to join the Atlantic Alliance.

In addition to NATO membership, Finland has already implemented another protective foreign policy: the wall that has begun to be erected on its border with Russia. As a test that will stretch along the more than 1,340-kilometre borderline, Helsinki wants to cope with the massive migration of Russians escaping conscription, the Kremlin's reserves for its war in Ukraine. 

"One lesson of this war is that we should have listened to those who know Putin," said European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, referring to the Baltic states. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, wedged between Russia's borders, the Kaliningrad region and Belarus, are well aware of Moscow's Trojan horses.

The countries joined NATO and the European Union in the face of constant threats from Russia. Indeed, they warned for years of Putin's expansionism until it became a reality with the invasion of Ukraine. "I accept apologies here now for all the condescending Western European nonsense I had to listen to for 31 years telling me that we Estonians were paranoid about Russian behaviour," Toomas Hendrik, who was Estonia's president from 2006 to 2016, tweeted at the time.

Accepting apologies now here for all the patronizing nonsense from Western Europeans I had to listen to for 31 years telling me we Estonians were "paranoid" about Russian behavior.

— toomas ilves aka "I'm not only on this site" ? (@IlvesToomas) February 21, 2022

In the past tense, it is surprising to see the warnings about Putin's ultra-nationalist desire to try to reclaim areas of the former Soviet Union. It is now a year since the worst-case scenario of a full-scale invasion of the country that shares borders with Moscow. A context unprecedented since the Second World War has already led non-aligned countries to review their policy of neutrality. Historic measures in the face of the new spectre haunting Europe.