Ethiopia to advance on Tigray's capital as surrender ultimatum expires

Ethiopia's prime minister, Abiy Ahmed, warned of a "final" offensive against the northern rebel region of Tigray in the coming days, after overcoming the ultimatum he gave the Tigrayan forces last week to surrender. 

“The three-day ultimatum given to Tigray Special Forces and the militia to surrender ... has ended today,” Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said on Facebook. “The final critical act of law enforcement will be done in the coming days.”

Africa’s youngest leader and the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize winner, Abiy launched air strikes and a ground offensive on Nov. 4 after accusing the local ruling party, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), of armed revolt.

African countries such as Kenya, which shares a border with southern Ethiopia, and Uganda have called for a negotiated solution to the dispute, but the Addis Ababa government rejects this course of action as it considers that the TPLF has violated the constitutional order. 

The conflict, which has spread to neighbouring Eritrea - an ally of the Ethiopian government - after the TPLF attacked its capital, Asmara, last Saturday, is also causing a humanitarian crisis that has driven over 25,000 Ethiopians to flee to Sudan. 

In this regard, Abiy stated late Monday that "the Ethiopian government is ready to receive and reintegrate our fellow Ethiopians fleeing to neighboring countries. We vow to our innocent civilians that have fled, to protect their property, enable humanitarian support by the ENDF and guarantee their peace upon return," he added on his Twitter account.

Tigray remains isolated and with telecommunications cut off since the beginning of this war, making independent verification of information difficult. The dispute between Tigray and the federal government had been escalating for months, with the indefinite postponement of the general elections due to be held in Ethiopia last August as a turning point. 

Following the delay of the elections by COVID-19, the TPLF held its own parliamentary elections last September, which the central government branded as illegal, and is now seeking to re-establish "constitutional order" in Tigray. 

Furthermore, since October 5, the date on which Abiy's mandate theoretically expired, the Tigray government has not recognised any authority of the federal executive.