Excess mortality from COVID-19 in Guatemala exceeds 15,000 deaths

Excess mortality due to COVID-19 has exceeded 15,000 deaths in Guatemala, according to a report issued on Tuesday by the NGO Laboratorio de Datos GT, one year after the first death from the disease in the Central American country.

The organisation warned that since the excess mortality was shown at the end of May, until 5 February, the National Registry of Persons has counted 15,424 deaths more than the average of the last five years in the Central American country.

The Ministry of Public Health and Social Assistance, on the other hand, has registered 6,599 deaths since 15 March 2020, when the government reported the first death due to the coronavirus, corresponding to the second infected patient.

The excess deaths investigated by the Data Lab show that there were 26% more deaths in those weeks, due to "direct or indirect" causes of the pandemic.

The health ministry only counts and publishes deaths due to Covid-19 that occur within the hospital or health system, while the Registry of Persons analyses other variables, such as deaths at home or on the public highway.

The Registry has even noted that there are more than 8,000 hospital deaths reported as "suspected, possible or contact COVID-19," the Lab said.

Óscar Chávez, an engineer and data analyst for the entity, said that the "excess mortality should be interpreted as deaths both directly associated with COVID-19 and with other deaths that are indirectly associated with the situation, such as lack of medical treatment, confinement, lack of access to services or cases not registered by any authority".

He also stressed that, as time goes by, the percentage of deaths related to COVID-19 will be lower than during the first wave of deaths and contagions, which exceeded 40%, according to the analysis delivered by the same organisation last October.

The NGO also examined the situation of vaccines applied by the Ministry of Health, which for the moment shows a discouraging panorama and could "meet its own objectives, but in six years," said systems engineer Carlos Duarte.

"According to the government, it has applied 42,000 doses, but despite the entry since 2 March of more than 200,000 doses, the application is progressing very slowly in relation to the accumulated amount. The government's goal is to administer 10,000 vaccines a day, but this month we are not close to meeting the objective of immunising the front line of the vaccination plan, including health workers, with the first dose," he added.

In addition to the "lack of information" about available vaccination sites and vaccine negotiations and purchases, as well as a "null" communication campaign, Data Lab found other omissions, such as explanations of who has been vaccinated.

"There is a line of people categorised as "other", which is the second most vaccinated with 7,446 people. It is second only to auxiliary nursing with 10,443 immunisations. We don't know who they are, and although the minister explained that they were cleaning staff, security, and others, these same ranks are described in the rest of the list," Duarte said.