Polls show a tight end to the campaign with Social Democrat Olaf Scholz in the lead with 48 hours to go until the vote

Germany counts down to decisive elections

photo_camera PHOTO/ARCHIVO - The Bundestag, Germany's federal parliament

German Chancellor Angela Merkel's political career is coming to an end. The historic leader, in office since 1990, is beginning to bid farewell after four terms in office and 16 years of total and absolute hegemony in Teutonic politics. Today, her approval rating is around 80 per cent, similar to her approval rating when she came to power in 2005. But the end, so long awaited by the leader herself, who is counting the hours until she bids her final farewell, will have to wait at least a few months.

Before she retires, Merkel will witness the disputed elections called in Germany for Sunday 26 September and then, with the results in hand, the foreseeably intense and heated negotiations to form a new government. An Executive that will not have the leadership of the most transcendental European political figure of the 21st century and that will inherit his legacy.

Who are the candidates?

The challenge is daunting, but there is no shortage of contenders. At the forefront is the Social Democratic leader, Olaf Scholz (Osnabrück, 1958). The current deputy chancellor and finance minister of the coalition government was nominated as a candidate a year ago against all odds. Scholz had been defeated in a sort of internal primary of the SPD, Germany's most left-wing party, along with his ticket-mate, in a sort of internal primary of the SPD, Germany's most left-wing party.

Olaf Scholz

Scholz's profile is perhaps the most similar to Merkel's despite coming from different parties, a trump card that plays in his favour. In addition, his extensive political experience supports his candidacy, as he was Minister of Labour in the government of Gerhard Schröder, Merkel's predecessor, and has held the finance portfolio for the last three years.

The representative of German social democracy is seen above all as a technocrat. Lacking in charisma, Scholz makes up for his shortcomings with pragmatism and efficiency. This explains the low profile of his 'a priori' successful campaign, without fuss or bombast, which has made him the rival to beat. 

All this despite the fact that he has been embroiled in a scandal over the continuous police raids on his ministerial building, instigated in the context of an investigation into the anti-money laundering department of the government's FIU, a department linked to the Ministry of Finance. In principle, the current minister was not involved in the alleged plot, which has only just begun its judicial course.

Armin Laschet (Aachen, 1961) is Scholz's main contender at the polls. The current minister-president of Germany's most populous state, North Rhine-Westphalia, was tasked in January with inheriting Merkel's leadership of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), overcoming the charismatic Markus Söder, leader of the sister Christian Social Union of Bavaria (CSU). A leadership that has not gone down well with the party.

Armin Laschet

The CDU has lost ground with his candidacy. Succeeding Merkel is no easy task. Despite briefly leading in the polls, Laschet plummeted after his controversial performance during the floods that devastated the western part of the country in July. On the expedition through the area, a camera caught the Christian Democrat candidate in fits of laughter as he walked through the devastation the water had left in its wake.

That fateful image, coupled with his comments limiting the party's climate action, put him in a second position that he has not been able to shake off. Laschet's campaign immediately went on the offensive, a role in which he is not seen as comfortable as one of the more moderate profiles within the CDU. Another of the advantages that has worked against him has been the scant support shown by Merkel, who has only joined his rallies in the final stretch of the campaign to try to boost his candidacy.

The Greens' candidate, Annalena Baerbock (Hannover, 1980), is in third place in the polls. Elected in April to represent the party, Baerbock has been co-leading the party since 2018 and has become one of the most widely followed political figures in the country, especially among the youth electorate. His inexperience works against him, since, unlike his opponents, he has not yet held any governmental office, and he maintains a monotone and repetitive discourse on the climate crisis. This is a burden that is at the same time the focus of her political action.

Another of the things that knocked her off a dizzying start in the polls, where she came to occupy first place in voting intentions, were the accusations of inaccuracies in her CV, of delaying the payment of taxes on a Christmas bonus and of plagiarism in her book. The final straw came when he used a racial slur during an interview. Baerbock apologised, but the damage to his image had already been done.

Angela Merkel

Christian Lindner, chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party (FPD); Janine Wisler, co-chair of Die Linke, the post-communist political formation, heir to the German Democratic Republic (GDR); and, ultimately, economist Alce Weidel, leader of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), make up the panel of candidates with little choice. Only the Liberals would be decisive for the formation of a government as a hinge and, moreover, their leader wants the finance portfolio.

Intense end to the campaign

The parties are rushing the last hours before the elections. In Germany there is no legal regulation that determines the beginning and end of the election campaign, so there is also no day of reflection, as is the case in other countries. This factor will delay the holding of rallies, events and public appearances by the candidates as much as possible. In fact, this Friday, Scholz appeared in Cologne and Laschet in Munich, accompanied by Söder and Merkel. While Baerbock held a rally in Potsdam on Thursday and in Düsseldorf today.

Thursday saw the third and final election debate, a face-to-face televised debate attended by the entire political spectrum. Including the far-right AfD, whose role is restricted by a tight cordon sanitaire. However, the conditioning factor that has revolutionised the last hours of campaigning has been the multiple mobilisations that have taken place this Friday in various cities in Germany and the rest of the world against climate change.

Manifestación Alemania

The mass march in Berlin was attended by the young environmental activist Greta Thunberg. The demands, in principle favourable to the theses of the Greens, have chosen to move away from partisan postulates and point the finger at the political class as the main responsible for the situation. The debate once again focuses on the central issue of the campaign, the one that is most important to Germans according to the polls: the climate emergency. All the more so in a year that has seen record floods and heat waves.

Polls close the gap

According to the latest election forecast commissioned by the private broadcaster RTL, Olaf Scholz's SPD remains in the lead with 25 per cent of the vote, followed closely by Laschet's CDU/CSU with 22 per cent. In third place is Annalena Baerbock's party with 17% compared to 12% for the Liberals; AfD with 10% and Die Linke with 6% close the poll. These margins leave room for surprises. Even more so if one takes into account the number of undecided voters, which stands at 40%.

More in Politics