GNA counterattack west of Tripoli

A break for Fayez Sarraj. In the last few hours, some good news has come from the front for Libya's Government of National Accord (GNA). Its troops have made some progress in the battles around Tripoli, the capital and official seat of power recognized by the United Nations.

On the western flank, the Daily Sabah reports that the GNA has managed to capture the cities of Zaouiya, Surman and Sabratha, located halfway between the capital and Libya's border with Tunisia. Until now, these three coastal towns had remained under the control of the Libyan National Army (LNA) of rebel marshal Khalifa Haftar.

In addition to territorial control, the GNA units have managed to seize several combat vehicles, at least one of which was provided to the LNA by the Jordanian Armed Forces. At this time, fighting between the two sides continues in the municipalities of Zuara and Ras Jedir, located a few kilometres from the Tunisian border. 

According to researcher Jalel Harchaoui, a collaborator of the Clingendael Institute, who has reported on his Twitter account, the latest events are part of a coordinated action by forces loyal to the regime. Harchaoui considers it likely that several Turkish drones have taken part in the offensive, providing air support to ground units.

If the GNA and its allies - mainly Turkish Army troops and their allied militias - manage to adequately secure their presence along the country's western coast, this will represent a fairly significant development in the course of the war. It should not be forgotten that, up to now, it has been the LNA that has taken the lead in the contest, with more political support in the international sphere and more military and logistical backing on the ground.

In fact, Haftar units continue to surround Tripoli on the southern front, where fighting and bombing are constant. In recent hours, some neighbourhoods, such as Abu Salim, Suq al-Juma and Bab Tajoura, have been targeted by the rebels. The Al-Khadra hospital has also been attacked. 

On the eastern front, the LNA has also scored some small victories. Somewhat south of the town of Misrata, the other major town that the LNA has not yet managed to conquer, Haftar soldiers have taken control of the entire area of Abu Qurain, according to the local news portal Arraed LG+ via its Twitter account. The town is about 140 kilometers south of Misrata, so this large port city is still far from the LNA's reach.

Misrata is officially constituted as a kind of city-state, i.e. a political entity independent of the power of Tripoli, which has, however, fought alongside the GNA troops against the common enemy over the past year.

Indeed, the escalation of the internal conflict in Libya has been going on for twelve months now. In April 2019, Marshal Jaftar ordered the units under his command to launch a military campaign from the east of the country with the aim of taking over the entire territory. Since then, he has established a parallel administration based in the city of Tobruk in the east of the country and has taken over the important cities of Benghazi and Sirte. Similarly, it has gathered under its area of influence most of the country's gas reserves, concentrated in pockets located on the eastern coast of Libya.

On the outside, the war on North African territory has also become a struggle of international interests over hydrocarbons and the reconstruction contracts that the country will offer once the military battles are over; philias and phobias that are quite clearly reflected in the alliances forged with both sides. 

The LNA in Haftar is the party that has managed to gather the most support. On the political front, the marshal, considered a strong power that can hold the territory together and keep the Muslim Brotherhood at bay, is favoured by the United States, France, Italy, Greece, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. On the military side, Egypt has sent some units to its neighbouring country and Russia has been posting mercenary units for months, including some belonging to the notorious Wagner Group.

The ranks of the GNA have been supported by powerful financial assistance from Qatar, as well as military backing from Turkey. Recep Tayyip Erdogan's is perhaps the government that has been most involved in the Libyan conflict to date. Not only has it deployed its own troops to the country, but it has also brought to the front more than 5,000 Islamist mercenaries from the Syrian war.

In the last few hours, another 350 fighters have arrived from the Middle East, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR). They will join the Sultan Murad, Suqur al-Shamal and Al-Sham brigades, deployed on the outskirts of Tripoli. According to this source, more than 180 Protestant militiamen have already died in Libya since the beginning of the operations.

To date, calls for a permanent ceasefire from the United Nations have not been heard by either side. Despite the coronavirus pandemic, which has already begun to spread in the country, fighting continues and is unlikely to stop in the coming weeks.