Iran's elections and how they may affect a return to the nuclear deal
Iran is once again embracing ultra-conservatism. In an election marked by the veto of reformist candidates, Ebrahim Raisi, head of the Judicial Power and clear candidate to succeed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was proclaimed the new president of the Persian country with almost 62% of the votes. The elections were characterised by a low turnout, which cast doubt on their legitimacy.
The vetoing of reformist candidates and above all of figures such as former parliamentary speaker Ali Larijani, the current first vice-president Eshaq Yahanguiri, one of the few reformists still active, and the ultraconservative former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, whose candidacy was also rejected, has provoked weariness among the population, which has seen an initial list of 592 candidates reduced to four options, with no major differences in terms of ideology.
Of the more than 59 million Iranians who were called to the polls, approximately 29 million turned out to vote, a turnout of 48.8%. Iran is once again embracing the "hard line" after two consecutive terms of moderate Hasan Rohani. Under Rohani's presidency, Iran embraced the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) or as the 2015 nuclear deal is commonly known. This agreement meant that the Persian country agreed to comply with requirements regarding its nuclear programme in exchange for the US and other Western countries lifting economic sanctions.
The Trump administration, however, brought about a change in policy towards Iran, which in 2018 decided to unilaterally abandon the nuclear deal and re-impose economic sanctions, pursuing a 'policy of maximum pressure'. Since then, Iran has been gradually skipping the agreement, enriching uranium up to 60 per cent, while the pact contemplated uranium enrichment up to a maximum of 3.67 per cent. Iran has also threatened on more than one occasion to limit inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
Joe Biden's arrival at the White House has meant a return to the Obama administration's foreign policy, which is understandable given that Biden was vice president during Barack Obama's presidency and carried much of the foreign policy burden. One of the main objectives of the new administration was to revive the 2015 nuclear deal with the Islamic Republic. Six rounds of negotiations have taken place since last April, with significant progress, but still insufficient for both countries to finally sign up to the agreement.
Iran's elections have been in the international spotlight largely because of the nuclear deal. One of the main fears was that with an ultra-conservative like Ebrahim Raisi being elected president of the Islamic Republic, the deal would be jeopardised at a decisive moment. However, it is true that the final word on an issue of such importance to the country will always rest with Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who makes the final decisions affecting the Islamic Republic. Raisi's team will therefore take the baton in the negotiations to restore the nuclear deal.
The new president's campaign spokesman, Alireza Afshar, said that Raisi believes in the need to continue these talks, but sees them as "a marginal issue that should not be associated with the country's problems or other state affairs". The US government's position on the election of Ebrahim Raisi as Iran's new president, who will take office on 3 August, and who faces personal sanctions imposed by the US for his alleged involvement in the mass executions of Marxist and leftist detainees in 1988, when he was deputy prosecutor of the revolutionary court in Tehran, remains to be determined.
Despite the latest developments in Iran, talks in Vienna to resume the nuclear deal continue. It seems that the latest round of negotiations, which took place two days after the elections in the Persian country, have ended with positive results. According to the EFE news agency, Enrique Mora, the Spanish diplomat who is coordinating the contacts on behalf of the European Union (EU), explained that "my expectations as coordinator (...) is that for the next round the delegations will return from the capitals with clear instructions and, finally, we will be able to reach an agreement".
Likewise, the Iranian representative, in the same vein as the Spanish diplomat, pointed out that "the main issues of disagreement have been resolved" and those on which a solution has not yet been found have at least made progress. Optimism about an imminent return to the pact was also shared by the Russian negotiator, Mikhail Ulyanov, who said that the next round of negotiations could begin in about "ten days".
The White House has not yet made any public assessment of the latest round of talks, but has criticised the Iranian elections as neither "free nor fair". The optimism expressed by the mediators in Vienna clashes with the Islamic Republic's pre-election posture of restraint when the possibility of reaching an agreement if Raisi was elected president was called into question. The Vienna-based delegation is reportedly aiming to conclude the deal before August, when the ultra-conservative Ebrahim Rashi will be officially installed. An optimism that possibly masks the need not to create further misunderstandings so that the return to the nuclear pact becomes effective as soon as possible.
