Lebanese living abroad in Muslim countries where Friday is already the weekend will be the first to vote in this year's legislative elections

Lebanese expatriates called to the polls

photo_camera PHOTO/AFP - A Lebanese woman casts her vote at a polling station at the Lebanese embassy in Tehran on May 6, 2022.

Elections begin in Lebanon with its peculiar voting and election system divided into religious districts. The first to be called to the polls are the 230,400 Lebanese expatriates registered to vote who are spread around the world. 

The ruling parties have called for a massive mobilisation of this population in the hope of being favoured in the elections that will end on Sunday 15 May. By 21 May, parliament is expected to be dissolved and new deputies from the 128 seats divided among the country's various religious communities will be sworn in.

Un libanés expatriado comprueba la lista de nombres mientras llega a depositar su voto en las elecciones parlamentarias del Líbano en la embajada libanesa en Riad, Arabia Saudí, el 6 de mayo de 2022 PHOTO/REUTERS

The participation of these 230,400 overseas voters is a crucial point in the elections. The minimum voting age is 21, which favours Christians. Four million out of the total population of six million are of voting age. Add in expectations of a low turnout of 50%, and the vote of the 230,400 Lebanese expatriates is a very big mouthful in these elections. Najib Mikati, the Lebanese prime minister, has tried hard to attract the expatriate vote to the traditional forces, but according to analyses there is no indication that his discourse will resonate with this group. 

This is the second time expatriates have voted in Lebanon's elections. The first was in 2018. Compared to the last elections, voter registration has doubled. 

Lebanese politics is strongly shaped by its electoral system, which divides the country into 15 constituencies that divide seats between Maronites, Eastern Orthodox, Eastern Catholics, Armenian Orthodox, Armenian Catholics, Protestants and Christians, who since the 1972 Taif Accords elect 64 of the 128 members of the Lebanese Parliament. 
 

Mapa de las circunscripciones electorales de la Ley del Voto 2017 y distribución de escaños.

Muslims, in turn, share the election of the other 64 seats among Sunnis, Shiites, Druze and Alawites. The Taif Accords also set out other important aspects of forming a government. According to the agreements, Lebanon's president must always be a Maronite Christian, the faith that has its roots in the country and is rooted in the hills of Mount Lebanon. In turn, the prime minister must be a Sunni Muslim, and the speaker of parliament a Shiite. In a presidential and monocameral system, this method is designed to ensure balance and a certain "social peace" in the country, but it is also an obstacle to political change in the institutions.  

PHOTO/REUTERS

Such political change and a breath of fresh air in a country plagued by instability, economic hardship and divergent interests among its leaders is one of the Lebanese people's greatest desires, according to polls commissioned from the opinion polling department of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation (FKA), the German political foundation linked to the Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU). According to the data published by the FKA, the Lebanese electorate's concerns are corruption (33.8 per cent), the return of funds illegally transferred abroad by the Lebanese political class (13.5 per cent) and the change of the country's political class (13.3 per cent). 

These data summarise that Lebanon's main problem in the eyes of 60% of the country is the political class that leads them, something that in principle should not favour the traditional parties in power. 

The same study on voting intentions confirms this premise. FKA estimates that independent candidates will obtain 25.7% of the votes counted with a 50% turnout on Sunday 15 May. They are followed by Hezbollah with 14.7 per cent, the October 17 Movement with 12.3 per cent of the vote, the Christian parties Lebanese Force and Free Patriotic Current with 11.5 and 6.8 per cent respectively. 
 

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