Libya: a ceasefire is possible

Peace might have a chance in Libya. After months of uninterrupted fighting, the peace talks are beginning to show their first fruits. The second round of negotiations of the 5+5 Joint Military Commission, which brings together representatives of the two sides, has closed in the Swiss city of Geneva with a satisfactory outcome.

The talks, held under the auspices of the United Nations, have brought together representatives of the Government of National Accord (GNA) of Fayez Sarraj and the Libyan National Army (LNA) of rebel marshal Khalifa Haftar. However, he didn't come in person to the summit. The meeting focused primarily on issues related to the military escalation in the North African country, but also covered economic issues, such as the LNA's decision to cut off oil exports in the territory under its control.

The meeting was attended by António Guterres, Secretary General of the United Nations. Nevertheless, it has been hosted by Ghassan Salamé, its special representative in Libya, who has thanked the good disposition and "professionalism" of the two delegations. The dialogue has been an important step forward in the peace process, as it has resulted in the drafting of the conditions for a permanent ceasefire. The text has met with the approval of the two parties, although it is provisional; there is still no firm provision to implement such a ceasefire from now on.

Today, both sides are still fighting and trying to take advantage of the vacuum left after the fall of Gaddafi: Sarraj's NAG, recognised as the legitimate power by the UN and supported by Turkey and Qatar, is resisting around Tripoli and Misrata the advance of Haftar's NAG, whose main ally is Russia. However, it also has the support of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and France, among others.

The elaboration of this draft is an important step in Libya's fragile peace process. It’s the first time that the talks have produced a tangible outcome that will serve to further build on a foundation. Indeed, it’s hoped that the document will serve to seal a final deal next March, when the third round of the 5+5 Commission negotiations is scheduled to take place.

The objective of the proposed ceasefire is to facilitate the safe return to their homes of the thousands of Libyan citizens who have been displaced from their homes since fighting intensified in April 2019. Similarly, this ceasefire should also establish the conditions necessary to install a joint monitoring mechanism for the situation, which will include representatives of UNSMIL and the 5+5 Commission.

The UNSMIL has urged the GNA and the LNA to comply with the momentary truce that, only in theory, is in place in the country until the definitive commitment is achieved. The truth is that the fighting has continued regardless of the ceasefire and the calls from international society to stop the shooting. 

The international arms embargo on the North African country is also not being respected; despite the European Union's announcement of a special naval air mission in the Mediterranean to ensure compliance, Ankara has continued to find ways of bringing weapons into the territory. The interference of the Erdogan Executive has added even more fuel to the fire.

In fact, a new episode of the Turkish intervention in Libya was recorded on Monday. The Emirate news portal Al-Ain has reported that a freighter carrying a Liberian flag from the port of Mersin in Turkey is set to dock in the Libyan enclave of Misrata. This city is located about two hundred kilometres east of Tripoli, on the part of the coast still controlled by the Sarraj government. Although governed by relatively autonomous Tripoli institutions, it has played a leading role in the fight against terrorist groups in the past and against Haftar in the present.

The ship that arrived there, whose name is 'Hansa Rotenburg', stopped at four other Turkish ports after its departure. In its holds, it carries arms and ammunition, according to Al-Ain. The LNA of Haftar bombed the port of Tripoli, where a Turkish ship was anchored, at the end of last week. Another one, which was in the vicinity, chose to move away from land as a precaution.

Turkey has been supplying war equipment to the ANG for months but has increased its presence over the past few weeks, sending both its armed forces and militia like-minded troops from Syria. Early last week, four ships from Ankara arrived at the port of La Goulette, the largest port in Tunisia. Libya's neighbour, therefore, could have facilitated the arrival of support material for Sarraj's forces.