The lieutenant colonel of the Spanish Army participated in the programme 'De cara al mundo' on Onda Madrid

Lucas Martín: "Russia is consolidating its area of influence in the region"

photo_camera PHOTO/GUILLERMO LÓPEZ/ATALAYAR - Lieutenant Colonel of the Spanish Army Lucas Martin

The lieutenant colonel of the Spanish Army and head of the Group of Obtaining by Ground Systems of the Intelligence Regiment Lucas Martín Serrano came to the microphones of the latest programme of "De cara al mundo" to give the keys to the repression that is being experienced in Kazakhstan. Dozens of people have died in the streets as a result of the protests caused by the rise in prices, in particular heating costs. The lieutenant colonel also analysed the role being played by Vladimir Putin's Russia in the Kazakh conflict. 

What is your assessment of the sudden crisis in Kazakhstan as a result of repression by the regime?

In fact, the protests did not start in Almaty, but in the city of Zhanaozen, a city where there are oil and gas fields, and already in November the riots began there with the first deaths, and now they have spread to the two main cities of the country, Almaty and Nur-Sultan. This obviously has an impact on the whole region as Kazakhstan has asked Russia for help, which, in a way, strengthens its area of influence. 

El teniente coronel del Ejército de Tierra de España Lucas Martín

This crisis comes at a time when tensions are also high because of the situation in Ukraine... Does Russia intend to take care of its sphere of influence?

Of course, firstly, it is clear that Russia wants to take care of its natural sphere of influence. Secondly, as far as its western flank is concerned, it intends to maintain a buffer zone to keep NATO forces away from its borders, which is basically what Russia intends to do.

Does NATO have to be cautious, or does it depend on how far the repression of demonstrators goes?

Here NATO, I dare say, as in the Ukrainian conflict, in principle has nothing to say or do, simply because it is not a member of the Alliance and therefore has no legal basis to intervene. Another thing is that in certain international bodies, if things get out of hand or the repression is very strong, they may decide to take some kind of sanctions, as they have done on other occasions. But NATO should not really have any role in the Kazakhstan problem and should not intervene.

El teniente coronel del Ejército de Tierra Lucas Martín

Does the fact that the crisis in Kazakhstan has exploded at this moment have anything to do with the crisis in Ukraine or is it a coincidence?

There are no coincidences in foreign policy, nor is it a conspiratorial plan, but it is curious that the first thing President Kasim-Yomart Tokayev said was to accuse foreign agents of being behind the uprisings. One might think that, in a way, this is a way of continuing to build the narrative that Russia is constructing to justify any of its defence actions in Kazakhstan or Ukraine. On the other hand, it is true that the conflict comes at a complicated time because Russia's troop movements to Kazakhstan have not come at the best moment, as it has a lot of waiting power in the east, but it is also true that this narrative of foreign intervention in another area of Russian influence could be good for Russia.  

Internally, given the economic crisis that Russia is experiencing, although the price of oil has increased, there are many voices within the Russian nation that are critical of the government for the way it has handled the COVID-19 pandemic, and this serves to distract Vladimir Putin from these internal problems. 

Evidently, this is a technique widely used by all dictatorial regimes: when there are internal problems, they look for external enemies on which to focus attention and thus forget or put internal problems in the background.

More in Politics