Lula da Silva would be Brazil's new president, according to the majority of polls

Two recent polls showed Luis Inácio Lula da Silva's lead over President Jair Bolsonaro widening slightly to 6 points, just ahead of Brazil's run-off election. In less than a week, both occurred between Sunday and Tuesday, and the result may have been influenced by an incident on Sunday in which Bolsonaro ally Roberto Jefferson shot at police while resisting arrest. 

Bolsonaro tried to disassociate himself from the former deputy, calling him a "bandit" for his attack on police and even claiming that there were no photographs of the two together to be treated as allies. For his part, former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva took advantage of the incident to attack the head of state for his connections with former legislators who, like him, defend the relaxation of the carrying and possession of weapons. 

In the final stretch of the campaign in Brazil, Workers' Party (PT) leader and candidate Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva maintains a lead over his opponent, President Jair Bolsonaro, ahead of next Sunday's run-off election, according to polls published this week.

Lula would get 53% of the valid votes, up from 52% last week, compared to 47% for Bolsonaro, who had 48% in the previous poll, according to a PoderData survey. In another Genial/Quaest poll, the leftist former president had 48% voter support, up from 47% last week, while Bolsonaro held at 42%. The Genial/Quest poll surveyed 2,000 people between October 23 and 25, with a margin of error of two percentage points, and 95% confidence.

Another survey, published on Tuesday by the Paraná Research Institute, offered a different scenario: it puts the opponents in a technical tie. From an electoral point of view, Lula will receive 50.2% of the presidential vote, compared to 49.8% for the president, according to consultants. Lula lost 1.1 points, the same percentage as Bolsonaro, compared to last week's Parana poll. Meanwhile, the latest poll by the other major public opinion firm, Datafolha, published last Wednesday, also recorded a reduction in Lula's lead, from 53 to 52% of valid votes, against an increase for Bolsonaro, from 47 to 48%, leaving the two contenders in a technical tie, given the 2% margin of error.

Monday's AtlasIntel poll showed a brief widening of Lula's voting intention, with 52.0% to Bolsonaro's 46.2%, up from 51.1% to Bolsonaro's 46.5% in the previous poll a fortnight ago.

The second round of Brazil's presidential election is scheduled for Sunday 30 October, where more than 156 million people will determine Brazil's future, according to the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), in an election in which the president, governors, senators and federal, state or district deputies will be elected.  

After the first round of voting, polls were widely criticised for underestimating support for Bolsonaro. PoderData interviewed 5,000 voters by telephone and its poll had a margin of error of 1.5 percentage points. PoderData coordinator Rodolfo Costa Pinto analysed the results. "I still observe a scenario of stability. The variations were within the margin of error. It could be a direct effect of the episode involving Roberto Jefferson, very much exploited by the opposition to the president and with great exposure on the Internet and in the traditional media, especially on Monday, right in the middle of the poll," he said.

A breakdown of the PoderData poll shows that current president Jair Bolsonaro is more popular among men: 53% compared to Lula's 47%. Among women, Lula was the top choice: 58% to 42%. In terms of age, Lula leads all age groups except the elderly. People aged 16 to 24 preferred the former head of state (57 to 43), those aged 25 to 44 (52 to 48) and those aged 45 to 59 (54 to 46). However, those over 60 favour Bolsonaro: 52 to 48.

In terms of regions, the picture is as follows: in the southeast of the country Bolsonaro leads (52 to 48), in the south as well (56 to 44), and in the Midwest the current president leads (53 to 47) and also in the north (52 to 48). The only region where Lula has won is the northeast, where his winning percentage is very different: 68 to 32.

Americas Coordinator: José Antonio Sierra.