Eight votes in favour and three against make Lula da Silva's candidacy for the 2022 elections possible

Lula to run for president after Brazil's Supreme Court ruling 

photo_camera AFP/SERGIO LIMA - The former President of Brazil Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva

"Only God", says Jair Bolsonaro, could oust him from the presidency of Brazil. After the Supreme Court's ratification, the president will have a former president, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, in front of him, whom he will have to beat in the elections scheduled for 2022 if he wants to make one of his many peculiar, to say the least, declarations count. Brazil's high court upheld the ruling that will allow Lula to run in next year's elections after eight votes in favour and three against. The judges have ratified that these cases should not have been tried in Curitiba, where the former Minister of Justice and Public Security, Sergio Moro, was in charge. The sentences imposed there are invalid and have been annulled, so the cases will be tried in Brasilia. 

Former president Lula has not yet made any assessment on the matter, although his defence has done so, stating that this decision "reinforces the rule of law" and helps to "restore legal certainty and the credibility of the judicial system". Current president Bolsonaro has been quick to make his assessment of the Supreme Court's ruling, saying that "if Lula returns by direct vote, by an auditable vote, that's fine. Now, let's see what the future holds for Brazil with the kind of people he will bring to the presidency". Jair Bolsonaro hopes to be re-elected in next year's elections, when he will complete three years as president of Brazil. 

AFP/ EVARISTO SA - El exministro brasileño de Justicia y Seguridad Pública, Sergio Moro

For his part, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, should he win, would mean a return to the post he held from 2003 to 2010. In 2018, when Bolsonaro won, Lula could not run because he was in prison, where he spent 580 days after being convicted of corruption offences by Judge Moro. The two sentences imposed on him totalled more than 20 years, and when Sergio Moro accepted the current president's invitation to take over as head of the justice ministry - a post he later relinquished - Lula appealed both convictions. 

Judge Moro's reputation had already suffered a major blow when he became part of Jair Bolsonaro's government. Now we must add the messages between the judge and the prosecutors in Lula's case, revealed by the Brazilian media, The Intercept Brazil, which show an improper closeness between them. The victory now won by the leftist candidate is yet another victory after the one achieved a few weeks ago against Sergio Moro himself. On that occasion, the judges ruled that the magistrate close to President Bolsonaro had not acted impartially in the case of the now presidential candidate Lula da Silva. 

AP/ENRALDO PERES  -   El presidente de Brasil, Jair Bolsonaro

However, it should be noted that the former president has not been acquitted. The decision is that he will be retried in three other corruption cases in which he is accused of receiving bribes from companies in exchange for public contracts. Now a new case remains to be analysed, which in principle does not seem likely to have a major impact on his candidacy. The Supreme Court has not wanted to take all the decisions at the same time and has left for a future session the question of whether all the evidence gathered by Moro to convict Lula is valid or, on the contrary, is invalidated by the ruling against the former minister.

The elections in which the leadership of the Brazilian country will be contested are still a long way off. More than 18 months lie ahead until the elections scheduled for October 2022. However, the first polls are already circulating in the streets of Brazil and do not seem very favourable to Bolsonaro. Some of the most recent polls show Lula winning by a wide margin over the current president in the second round. The media that are carrying out these polls also warn that there is still a long way to go and that the situation between now and the polls may change, especially depending on the evolution of a pandemic that has been leaving some very worrying data in Brazil over the last few days. 

Latin America Coordinator: José Antonio Sierra.

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