The former head of research and analysis at the Hebrew state's Military Intelligence Service warns of the need to strengthen deterrence against Iran

The main lesson Israel has already learned from the Ukraine war

photo_camera PHOTO/Hagal Frid - Following his knowledge of the Russian attack on Ukraine, the Director of the Institute for Policy and Strategy at Reichman University, General Amos Gilead, believes that the capabilities of the Israel Defense Forces need to be enhanced.

The director of the Institute for Policy and Strategy at Israel's Reichman University, retired general Amos Gilead, says that the main lesson that Prime Minister Naftali Bennet - Benjamin Netanyahu's successor - should learn from the war in Ukraine is that "we are going to have to improve the capabilities of our armed forces".

General Gilead knows what he is talking about. A member of the Israel Defence Forces Intelligence Corps, he served for 13 years as the head of Policy and Political-Military Affairs in Israel's defence ministry, a position he left in February 2017 at the end of his military career. 

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Prior to that, he had served for many years as head of the Research and Analysis Division of the Military Intelligence Directorate (AMAN). He was also a key member of Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin's team of military advisors between July 1992 and November 1995.

From his perspective, "if the government in Kiev had real power, the Kremlin would never have dared to invade the country". By bringing the events that have unfolded on Ukrainian soil to bear on the geographical environment of the Middle East, his experience makes him stress that Israel "should not underestimate the potential of the government in Tehran".

General Gilead's accumulated knowledge enables him to emphasise that "we face brutal strategic threats from Iran, whose goal is to exterminate Israel". Thus, in his view, the first lesson from the Russian invasion of Ukraine is that 'we must strengthen our deterrence capabilities'. And the Jewish state has the capabilities to do so.

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Tenth largest arms exporter in the world in 2021

Israel was the world's tenth largest exporter of military equipment and weapons systems in 2021, with a turnover of $11.2 billion, according to a recent report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). It represents an increase of 34.9 per cent over 2020, which was 8.3 billion.

This is no coincidence. The Mediterranean country has a very important defence industrial fabric with a great capacity for R+D+i, which it has been strengthening year after year and which enables it to innovate, develop and arm its small but battle-hardened armed forces and export a large part of its production. 

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The main regions of destination for Israeli armaments in 2021 were Europe (40%), Asia-Pacific (34%), North America (12%), the Arab countries of the Abraham Agreement (7%) and also Africa (4%) and Latin American countries (3%).

Every two years, Israel showcases its wide range of products and services in Tel Aviv at the ISDEF international defence exhibition, the 11th edition of which took place from 21 to 23 March with the presence of 250 companies from 36 countries.

Companies of the international importance of Israel Aircraft Industries (IAI), Rafael, Elbit and Israel Military Industries (IMI), manufacturers of missiles, rockets, electronic warfare and communications systems, unmanned aircraft, ammunition, light and heavy weapons, combat vehicles, together with a long list of other Israeli companies, have signed hundreds of contracts with official bodies from all over the world at ISDEF 2022. 

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 No military aid to Ukraine and no sanctions on Russia

With the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the outbreak of war, Prime Minister Naftali Bennet's government decided not to arouse the Kremlin's ire, to maintain neutrality and not to provide military assistance to Kiev, including helmets or other personal protective equipment. He also avoided imposing significant economic sanctions on Moscow and Ukraine's separatist provinces.

Export licences to Ukraine or Russia already granted by Israel's Export Control Agency (DECA) but not yet materialised have been suspended or revoked. However, on Wednesday, 20 April, Defence Minister Benny Gantz said that, in response to a request from Kiev, Israel will provide helmets and bulletproof vests to Ukrainian emergency and rescue services. This decision is not to Moscow's liking and has caused tension between the two governments. 

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With 5 per cent of its GDP devoted to defence - in the order of $20 billion - the main recipients of the weapons systems manufactured on Hebrew soil are the Israel Defence Forces, or IDF, which has 173,000 permanent personnel. If necessary, the IDF has the tools to mobilise most of its approximately 500,000 men and women reservists within 72 hours.

Israel is thus capable of building up a combat and logistics force of between 650,000 and 750,000 soldiers on the ground, naval, air and cyber forces, all of them under the command of the Chief of the General Staff - equivalent in Spain to the Chief of Defence Staff, JEMAD - currently Lieutenant General Aviv Kochavi. Its head is the Minister of Defence, former Lieutenant General Benny Gantz, who served as JEMAD (2011-2015) under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Such a number of human troops is the main component with which Israel must secure its borders with Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Egypt and the Palestinian territories in the West Bank and Gaza, as well as protect the 9 million Israelis who inhabit the 22,145 km² of its national territory, a space slightly larger than the province of Badajoz. 

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Its main challenger in the region is the Islamic Republic of Iran, which since last August has been presided over by jurist Ebrahim Raisi. With a population of 86 million, an active military potential of some 600,000 and a further 350,000 in reserve, Iran's defence minister is General Mohammad-Reza Gharaei Ashtiani, appointed by President Raisi. Unlike Israel, Iran's military capabilities are very limited and depend on assistance from Russia, China and other countries in the same orbit.

 

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