The former Venezuelan Minister of Industry and Development and former Executive Director of the World Bank reviewed on Capital Radio's Atalayar programme the major issues affecting current international affairs and analysed the danger of populism

Moisés Naím: "The United States has shown that it is more volatile in its policies than other countries"

photo_camera Atalaya_Moises Naim

Moisés Naím, former Venezuelan Minister of Industry and Development, former Director of the Central Bank of Venezuela, former Executive Director of the World Bank and one of the most widely read columnists in Spanish appeared on Capital Radio's Atalayar programme to analyse the current international scenario and to warn of the danger that populism poses to the democratic system. His weekly columns on world affairs are published by the main Latin American newspapers, as well as by El País in Spain and La Repubblica in Italy. Naím is a distinguished fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington DC and is the director and host of 'Efecto Naím', a television programme on international issues broadcast in the United States and Latin America on NTN24/DirecTV. Before joining the Carnegie Endowment in 2010, the columnist and writer was editor of Foreign Policy magazine for fourteen years. A background that gives him the authority to speak on a variety of current international issues.

The pandemic is slowly receding, it is taking time to bend the curve of contagion, but the last few weeks speak of a regression of the pandemic worldwide, how do you foresee the future that is opening up imminently to overcome the pandemic of the coronavirus?

We should celebrate, applaud and be in awe of this scientific achievement. This is humanity working at its best to generate a vaccine in record time; what none of the experts thought would happen so fast, humanity has achieved; and not one, but five vaccines against the virus. This is not normal, research processes take much longer to take a vaccine from idea to injections in people; it takes years and it was done with great speed, a fact to be applauded. We should also rejoice that both cases and hospitalisations are falling. Countries are making impressive gains in terms of the percentage of the population they manage to vaccinate and this is good news. There remains of course the great concern of the mutations that the virus is undergoing, there are different strains, and the virus that has come from South Africa, Brazil or the UK is starting to appear. We are going to see if the vaccine that we have is enough to inoculate us against all these mutations or if an additional dose will be necessary for these variants. On the other hand, the reluctance of people to wear masks remains a source of great puzzlement. In many places it has become a symbol of political identity, which is madness. There is nothing more potent for pandemic containment than wearing a mask in public. It's still a striking manifestation of the polarisation of these times that wearing or not wearing masks has become a political fact and a message, which is a strange thing to do.

Here in the United States this is certainly the case, here in Spain this issue is not questioned. The use of masks has been accepted and we do it in a disciplined way, there are no protests about the use of masks. The debate was opened in countries like the United States because of attitudes like that of the previous president.

I completely agree on that point. However, let us not minimise what is happening in France or what is happening in Germany, where there are some very important resurgences. We are all watching with a mixture of panic and admiration what is happening.

What future do you envision for the world, what will happen after we beat the pandemic?

It is a world in which institutions, ideas or leaders that we thought were immovable have been shown to be transitory, or ideas, institutions and habits that we thought were transitory have been shown to be permanent. An example of all this is teleworking, "remote healthcare", which we all thought was transitory; while the pandemic lasted, people were working from home and everything seems to indicate that when normality returns, not everyone who is working from home will have to return to the office. There will be a percentage, we don't know what it is, who will continue to stay at home and work despite the change in the pandemic. Another example of things we thought would be permanent and untouchable is democracy. We are seeing how democracy is under a lot of attacks, here in Washington we experienced the episode of 6 January with the insurrection and the attack on the Capitol. That was unimaginable and yet there it is.

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It did happen and it made our blood run cold. In his first international speech at the Munich conference, Joe Biden made it clear that democracy is in danger. To what extent do you think that there are too many countries where populism has taken power and democracy is very much in danger?

You are right and not only in the United States, I am writing a book that addresses precisely this issue, in which I am tracing all the threats and attacks that characterise the checks and balances of democracy in many countries around the world. Democracy today is undoubtedly under attack; illiberal forces, authoritarian forces, autocrats are having their way, and democracies are being weakened in many cases. An important priority for all of us who believe in the freedom of democracy in the coming years is to do whatever is necessary to actively support it, we must sustain and strengthen democracy.

You have pointed out that the bilateral relationship between the United States and China is the most important on the planet. How do you imagine it now after Trump's departure from the Presidency and with the arrival of Joe Biden?

Yes, I reiterate that there is no more important bilateral relationship on the planet than that between the United States and China. Not only does it affect the two countries mentioned, but it also affects us; what happens to them affects all of us regardless of where we are. It is a relationship that does not depend on one person, it does not depend on whether Donald Trump was there before and Biden is there now, obviously with Trump there was a more volatile and close and supportive position with his new best friend Xi Jinping until it ended in a strong disagreement with insults and verbal aggressions, etc. Biden is not like that, but, as we have seen recently, the new US president has been very tough in commenting on what is going on with the massive violations of human rights in China, what is going on in the area of intellectual property theft by Chinese companies, and so on. This is going to be the case for a long time, the United States and China will at the same time cooperate and compete and there will be simultaneous clashes over the control of the South China Sea, one of the busiest shipping lanes in the world, and there will be friction between the two powers over who is dominant in those waters. On the internet, who controls and what form the internet takes, 5G, rivalries between US and Chinese companies, multilaterals, the World Trade Association, the World Health Association, banks, there is a long list of arenas in which these two superpowers clash. At the same time, there is a space that has to be protected and preserved in terms of containing the escalation of conflicts. These conflicts can and always do exist, and there is a kind of interdependence between these two countries that has to be managed and lived with. They are for structural reasons two "quarrelsome" powers. At the same time, the leaders of both countries and the rest of humanity have the responsibility to create mechanisms, ideas, institutions and leaderships that prevent the clashes, confrontations and rivalries between China and the United States from escalating into an open conflict that could become armed, and if it is armed it is nuclear, and if it is nuclear it is the greatest catastrophe to which humanity could be exposed.
Could we say that the US relationship with China has become in recent years a state policy and there is not so much difference between how it is approached by conservatives or Republicans and Democrats?

I think that's a good characterisation, I agree with that way of looking at it. I don't think it's all going to be the same, though. Biden and his team are going to give more visibility to human rights violations. What is happening to the Uighurs in China is really appalling and humanity needs to pay attention to that and the fact that the US has decided to make it visible is to be welcomed. It is a situation that really deserves attention, but at the same time this should happen while collaborating in other areas. There are notable interests between the two countries to collaborate in areas where both can benefit from reaching agreements that protect the interests of both - I'm thinking of trade, for example. The essence of what you say is correct and I share it.

Does the United States need to restore, as Joe Biden seems to want to restore, the relationship with the Europeans? The United States needs the European Union and NATO to confront China.

This is true and it is part of a broader vision on the part of the Biden Administration in the sense that the top priority in international relations is alliances. The Administration is convinced that in today's world, the United States needs to accelerate, deepen and enrich its alliances in all areas. I believe that rebuilding a presence in geopolitical spaces that had been unilaterally ceded by Donald Trump is a priority. Hence the fact that Biden, at the Munich conference, openly declared "America is back", leaving many of us wondering: "For how long?", because what the United States has shown is that it is much more volatile in its policies than other countries. All it takes is for Trump or someone like Trump to win the presidential election for the whole "America is back" thing to come back again. The United States is a very important partner, it is indispensable for many countries, it will be part of a fabric of important alliances, but the question remains as to how much this partner can be trusted, how volatile its policies are. 

There will be an important test with Iran and the nuclear programme agreement; it seems that Biden is willing to return as long as the Iranians comply with the agreements reached. There is an important game here at a time when the recognition of Israel by Arab countries has greatly changed the region's strategy. 

The Iranians have every right to ask themselves, you are there now, but in four years' time there may be a change of government and sanctions may be re-imposed, which is part of one of the great damages that Donald Trump has left on the global presence of the United States. That is why we mean that, today, the United States is not a reliable partner because today it is here and in four years' time it will be on the other side. 

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How do you see the Latin American region?

What is happening is that we no longer know exactly what the word left or right means, in Latin America we are not very well defined by that description. We have seen a president like Michelle Bachelet of Chile who took very right-wing economic policies while being left-wing. At the same time, we have seen her successor, the current president, Sebastián Piñera, who is right-wing, but has taken more left-wing policies. In Mexico, practically the same thing is happening, there is López Obrador, he is a historic, populist, right-wing president, however, he has a fierce fiscal policy of austerity and limiting public spending. In Brazil, we are seeing Bolsonaro or in Argentina Alberto Fernández and Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, plus the uncertainties of what the outcome of the elections in Ecuador, Peru or Colombia will be. I believe that an important cycle of elections is coming where it is correct that candidates who claim to represent the left can win, but it is to be hoped that when they get into government they will change their policies. It is not easy to say that a candidate is a left-wing populist because it is not necessarily possible to predict precisely what kind of policies he or she will carry out. 

And with Venezuela, what can be done about the Chavista regime?

Two very important things, the first is to unite the democratic opposition in Venezuela which at the moment is fragmented and divided; it is important that there is an election that chooses, that there is an election in which Venezuelans can choose who we want to be our leader. For the democrats of the whole country, the democratic citizens of Venezuela to go out and vote for someone and for that someone to be the leader of the opposition with all that that entails. That is a prerequisite because as long as we continue with such a divided opposition we will get nowhere. And secondly, the same must be done with the international community. The international community is also very divided where Venezuela is concerned, and without international presence, activism and aid Venezuela will not be able to overcome its current tragedy. 

As an observer of international current affairs, you who are in Washington, what weight does Spain have on the international scene? I ask you this because it is strange that the days that have passed since Joe Biden's inauguration and the US President has called 23 political leaders from all over the world, but he has not yet called the Spanish Prime Minister. 

Spain has for some time now been less present than its size in terms of economy, its strategic role in Europe, etc., would justify. Spain is consumed by its internal conflicts, the recent elections in Catalonia also generate anxiety and uncertainty. Barcelona has been closed for several days due to street riots and this is a bad sign. At the moment Spain does not appear to be a bastion of strength with the capacity to address priorities outside the country. There is nothing more potent for international influence than domestic stability, and Spain does not currently enjoy strong stability.

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How do you see the Latin American region?

What is happening is that we no longer know exactly what the word left or right means, in Latin America we are not very well defined by that description. We have seen a president like Michelle Bachelet of Chile who took very right-wing economic policies while being left-wing. At the same time, we have seen her successor, the current president, Sebastián Piñera, who is right-wing, but has taken more left-wing policies. In Mexico, practically the same thing is happening, there is López Obrador, he is a historic, populist, right-wing president, however, he has a fierce fiscal policy of austerity and limiting public spending. In Brazil, we are seeing Bolsonaro or in Argentina Alberto Fernández and Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, plus the uncertainties of what the outcome of the elections in Ecuador, Peru or Colombia will be. I believe that an important cycle of elections is coming where it is correct that candidates who claim to represent the left can win, but it is to be hoped that when they get into government they will change their policies. It is not easy to say that a candidate is a left-wing populist because it is not necessarily possible to predict precisely what kind of policies he or she will carry out. 

And with Venezuela, what can be done about the Chavista regime?

Two very important things, the first is to unite the democratic opposition in Venezuela which at the moment is fragmented and divided; it is important that there is an election that chooses, that there is an election in which Venezuelans can choose who we want to be our leader. For the democrats of the whole country, the democratic citizens of Venezuela to go out and vote for someone and for that someone to be the leader of the opposition with all that that entails. That is a prerequisite because as long as we continue with such a divided opposition we will get nowhere. And secondly, the same must be done with the international community. The international community is also very divided where Venezuela is concerned, and without international presence, activism and aid Venezuela will not be able to overcome its current tragedy. 

As an observer of international current affairs, you who are in Washington, what weight does Spain have on the international scene? I ask you this because it is strange that the days that have passed since Joe Biden's inauguration and the US President has called 23 political leaders from all over the world, but he has not yet called the Spanish Prime Minister.

Spain has for some time now been less present than its size in terms of economy, its strategic role in Europe, etc., would justify. Spain is consumed by its internal conflicts, the recent elections in Catalonia also generate anxiety and uncertainty. Barcelona has been closed for several days due to street riots and this is a bad sign. At the moment Spain does not appear to be a bastion of strength with the capacity to address priorities outside the country. There is nothing more potent for international influence than domestic stability, and Spain does not currently enjoy strong stability.

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