Marruecos: inquietud ante una potencial amenaza militar argelina
The situation in which the Algerian regime finds itself is critical because more and more people distrust the political class. The nervousness and unease of Algerian leaders comes at a time when observers are not surprised that this hostile rhetoric is a psychological preparation for an Algerian military adventure, albeit limited, against the Alawite kingdom to break the state of isolation it is experiencing, especially with continued Western pressure on the Algerian regime to push it to withdraw from Russia's side; in a position that is not known to be intended to cover up the internal and external problems besetting Algeria and to divert Algerians' attention from power by fabricating a secondary issue.
Algeria stepped up its rhetoric towards what it described as Morocco's "expansionist ambitions", following the publication of a geographical map in the magazine Maroc Hebdo, which cut off part of Algerian territory within the framework of what is known as "Eastern Sahara", and agitated the army's readiness to confront any plans aimed at territorial sovereignty. The president of the National People's Assembly, Brahim Boughali, expressed the Algerian army's readiness to dissuade any expansionist ambitions of Morocco on Algerian territory. In the article it was underlined that the content published in the media lacks professionalism and it was added that the representation of "Algerian lands, soaked with the blood of martyrs, as part of the Moroccan kingdom that set artificial borders" is a product of the "various provocations of Algiers to the kingdom of Morocco".
The regime does not resort to diplomatic channels to settle differences, but rather escalates them directly, as in the case of unilaterally suspending the friendship agreement with Spain, ring-fencing the gas agreement with France, and prioritising past grievances over common benefits. Since the announcement of the break in relations on the Algerian side, Algiers and Rabat have been living off the impact of a media and electronic war, and found in the "maps" controversy a platform of support to deepen the crisis between the two countries and push it into a slide with uncalculated consequences, while the voice of the political, civilian and academic elites calling for limiting the dispute to official institutions and keeping the two peoples at arm's length has faded, due to the predominance of the confrontational discourse that so benefits the Algerian executive.
Several smokescreens have been launched by the central administration as a communication tool to divert attention from the country's economic problems. Observers do not rule out the possibility that the regime, living in the wake of internal conflicts under the control of the military institution, might resort to a military adventure to leapfrog over these conflicts and postpone them. However, they suggest that any venture into Morocco will be a disadvantage for the Algerian regime, especially in light of developments in the region and Rabat's expanding relations and military and security partnerships with powers such as the United States and Israel.
Since accusing Morocco in the summer of 2021 of being behind the fires that erupted at the time in Algeria, the Algerian authority has not stopped blaming Morocco, especially after the normalisation between Rabat and Tel Aviv, and the two sides' entry into extensive cooperation agreements, especially in the military and security fields. Despite rising oil and gas revenues, the central administration has failed to win the trust of the Algerian street and is pushing in all directions to silence critics in public media and social media. This failure could lead to a return of the popular movement to street protests.
Observers attest that the publication of a map that cuts off part of any country's territory can be responded to with legal arguments, an explanatory media campaign or a statement, but it is unwise to agitate the military option directly to confront. The map shows that the Algerian regime is weak, and that it found in it, an opportunity to escalate and cover up other more important facts, a fact that is not the first time it has been carried out by Abdelmadjid Tebboune's regime. The citizens feel betrayed by their president and perceive that the regime has exhausted them and plunged them into conflict, in addition to the fact that Algeria has increasingly tense relations with countries such as France, Spain and Tunisia.
President Abdelmadjid Tebboune said in an interview with the local press at the end of last year that "the break with Morocco was an alternative to war between the two countries", which contradicts Algeria's escalation against Morocco this week. The most remarkable is to implicitly hold the governments of the late President Abdelaziz Bouteflika responsible for the erroneous data, as huge budgets were allocated over the past two decades to support the agricultural sector. Given that Algeria had one of the worst democratic ratings in the world last year, it is hard to believe the pretexts referenced by Tebboune at the regular meetings. Morocco had already protested strongly during the Arab Summit in Algiers in early November, when an Algerian channel close to the authority acted on the map approved by the Arab League, creating space for the Sahara region in defiance of Morocco, which sees the southern provinces as part of its territory.
