The Israeli prime minister, who received a mandate from President Reuven Rivlin in April to form a government, failed to muster a majority of 61 MPs

Netanyahu has no chance of forming a government in Israel

photo_camera AFP/ DEBBIE HILL - Netanyahu's mandate to form a government after an inconclusive election expired on 5 May 2021, giving his rivals a chance to seize power and end the divisive prime minister's record term in office.

Barely a year after Israel's last parliamentary elections, nothing seems to have changed in the political landscape of the Jewish state. When he was tasked with forming a government for the sixth time in his long political career on 6 April, after weeks of intrigue, backroom bickering and sometimes contradictory rumours, Israel's longest-serving prime minister failed to muster a majority of 61 MPs to form a viable executive. Shortly before midnight, Benjamin Netanyahu informed the presidency that he could not form a government and thus returned the mandate to the president, Reuven Rivlin.

El político israelí Naftali Bennett, líder del partido de derecha 'Nueva Derecha', habla con sus partidarios después de los primeros resultados de la encuesta a pie de urna para las elecciones parlamentarias israelíes en la sede de su partido en Petah Tikva AP/TSAFRIR ABAYOV

In recent weeks, the deadlock in Israel's political landscape has once again become a reality. Netanyahu has tried to form a 'right-wing government' with his allies in the ultra-Orthodox parties, right-wing formations such as Yamina, led by Naftali Benet, with 7 seats, and the strongly racist and anti-Arab Religious Zionist Party, with 6 seats, has failed to attract more partners than the traditional ones, with negotiations at a standstill for weeks. But even with the addition of these supporters, its political result stood at 59, two MPs short of a parliamentary majority. To try to reach this threshold, the prime minister tried unsuccessfully to repatriate members of the right-wing fringe who had left Netanyahu's Likud party to form the conservative "New Hope" party, and courted the Islamist Raam party led by Mansour Abbas with four seats, a move that infuriated the far right by closing the door to a possible union between Israel's Islamist and religious Jewish parties.

El presidente israelí, Reuven Rivlin, asiste a una reunión de consulta con los representantes de los partidos elegidos para el parlamento (Knesset) AFP/ AMIR COHEN

Israel is on the verge of a fifth election. If Netanyahu fails to win the backing of an absolute majority in the House, Israeli President Reuven Rivlin has the option of appointing the centrist Yair Lapid, leader of the second most voted Yesh Atid party with 17 seats, to form a broad coalition cabinet. Lapid - who also does not have a clear majority - heads the "change bloc", an amalgam of more than seven ideologically diverse formations ranging from far-right, centre and left, but united in their opposition to Netanyahu. However, the extreme differences seem to make it difficult to form an opposition coalition, given that it requires the support of at least one Arab party as well as one or two extreme right-wing Zionist formations.

El político árabe israelí, líder de la Lista Árabe Unida, Mansour Abbas AFP/ABIR SULTAN

Israel's political sphere is more than convulsive, the composition of a coalition is a constant obstacle course. Once the clearly 'anti-Netanyahu' votes of the left, centre and right are gathered, with a fair majority in parliament (Knesset), with 51 MPs this 'bloc of change' can aspire to control the presidency of the House. However, it would need to gather another 10 seats from Arab parties (10 elected in total) or from the radical right-wing formation Yamina, led by Naftali Bennett, despite having only seven seats, is a key player that could tip the balance in favour of Netanyahu or his opponents, and during this time it has also negotiated with the opposition bloc led by Lapid, which brings together an amalgam of parties, from far-right to centre-left, opposed to the current prime minister.

El político árabe israelí, líder de la Lista Árabe Unida, Mansour Abbas AFP/ABIR SULTAN

So far, neither Netanyahu's bloc nor the opposition can guarantee an absolute majority of 61 of the 120 members of the Israeli parliament needed to create a coalition government. The surprise came when Netanyahu's Likud party tried to bring to the parliamentary committee a legislative proposal to allow direct elections for prime minister, which would give the current head of government more possibilities of renewing the post, as his party was the most voted for in March, and also managed to push through a proposal to accept in parliamentary proceedings the legalisation of Jewish settlements in the occupied West Bank, which attracted the support of his ideological allies, who so far are opposed to forming a coalition government with Netanyahu.

El ministro israelí de Transporte, Bezalel Smotrich (izquierda), y el ministro de Educación, Rafi Peretz (derecha), asisten al lanzamiento del partido político "Yemina" el 12 de agosto de 2019 en la ciudad israelí de Ramat Gan AFP/ JACK GUEZ

But once the clearly "anti-Netanyahu" votes from the left, centre and right have been collected, the counter of this "bloc of change" stops at 51 MPs. It would therefore need to gather another 10 seats from Arab parties (10 elected in total) or from the radical right-wing formation Yamina, led by Naftali Bennett, whom Netanyahu on Monday unsuccessfully offered the post of prime minister in a rotation of power. Benet, with his seven seats, could tip the balance, but he failed to reach an agreement with Netanyahu and rejected the proposal to head the government for the first year under a rotation agreement. He could now support Lapid, who if given the mandate will have the difficult task of bringing together a diverse set of parties with almost opposing approaches. 

If the opposition succeeds in forming a government, a page in Israel's history will be turned with the departure of Benyamin Netanyahu, who has spent the last 12 years in power. If not, Israelis risk returning to the polls for the fifth time in just over two years. All in all, Israel's political landscape is uncertain and looks set to remain uncertain.

More in Politics