Nile dam dispute: Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan

Following Donald Trump's unfortunate statements that Egypt could "blow up" the Blue Nile dam being built by Ethiopia, tensions between the three neighbouring countries have increased exponentially. The Great Dam of the Renaissance, which is the name of the civil engineering work designed by Ethiopia, began to be built in 2011 using water from the Blue Nile River, a tributary of the Nile from which Egypt extracts more than 90 percent of its fresh water. This large hydroelectric dam was intended to provide electricity to the Horn of Africa in general and to Ethiopia in particular. Let us remember that this is a region of the world where natural resources such as coal or oil are scarce, so the population has no access to electricity. On the other hand, according to the projections of the institutes of demographic studies, Sudan and Ethiopia are expected to double their populations between now and 2050, so the dam is crucial for the energy needs of both countries. Therefore, this dam has been supported by Sudan, as it would benefit from cheap electricity, but since the beginning of the crisis, this country has always insisted on the importance of having a binding agreement between the three countries concerned. However, after nine months of intense dialogue, it still seems unlikely that the negotiation will solve the disputes.  

Although an agreement was signed on January 31st attempting to resolve the main points of dispute over the dam, Ethiopia abandoned the negotiations without having signed the final binding document in February. A timetable for operation during the dry season had been agreed in these negotiations. On June 26 the three countries reached a second agreement, which was to ensure that none of the parties would take any unilateral action on the dam. This binding agreement coincided with the completion of the dam construction, which could now be fully operational. Despite signing this agreement, Ethiopia successfully completed the process of filling the dam in early July without the support of the other parties involved. The conflict is being mediated by the African Union, which has managed to relaunch the negotiations despite Donald Trump's statements. This past Sunday, November 1st, the mediation process was resumed with the presence of the three Water Ministers of the three countries involved and representatives of the African Union, the European Union and the World Bank. Even so, taking into account past negotiations, the parties do not have much hope of reaching a binding agreement.  

There are three main points of friction between the sides that will need to be resolved before returning to negotiations. First, logistically, agreements need to be reached on how much filling can be allowed depending on the season, dry and wet, to ensure that the agricultural sector has all the water it needs. Secondly, related to this point, the issue of governance and conflict resolution mechanisms is also a clear point of disagreement between the parties. While Egypt and Sudan are seeking an agreement that would allow an international arbitrator to resolve disputes in a binding manner, Ethiopia prefers to sign a non-binding agreement, a guideline document, rather than a legal treaty to preserve autonomy.  

Finally, the Ethiopian Prime Minister is running for election in 2021. The Great Dam project has become the national investment desired by the local population. The issue of water in Ethiopia is sensitive for the population and the rulers, as they consider that during the two treaties regulating the waters of the Nile signed during the colonial era, in 1929 and 1959, Ethiopia was strongly disadvantaged. If the prime minister concedes too much in negotiations, the Ethiopians can take it to the polls. These negotiations must therefore take into account the historical, diplomatic and political positions as well as the drinking water needs of the three countries concerned so that an agreement can be reached that can satisfy all the parties involved.