Putin has the last word in Belarus

If Ukraine is important to Russia, Belarus is no less important. That is why the head of the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin, has the last word on whether Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko remains in power, isolated and at odds with his own people.

"Honestly, I see Putin as my older brother," said Lukashenko, who is two years younger than the Russian leader, before the Aug. 9 presidential elections.

True to that relationship between Slavic brothers, Putin was the first to congratulate him on his re-election and the first to call on Lukashenko for advice and help when post-election protests spread like wildfire across the geography of the former Soviet republic.

While some Russians have expressed their solidarity with the Belarusian people in the face of police brutality, more and more voices close to the Kremlin are suggesting that Moscow might send troops to the neighboring country, if necessary.

If the overthrow of Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych was a big problem - possible deployment of NATO bases - as well as a big opportunity - annexation of the Crimea - for the Kremlin, Lukashenko's fall only has dark sides.

Putin always spun very thinly in Belarus, aware of the country's geopolitical importance for Russia's strategic security in the face of NATO's advance.

Losing Belarus to the West would overnight create a rebel belt in Russia's backyard that would extend from Georgia in the Caucasus to Ukraine on the Black Sea and continue on into Belarus until it reached the three Baltic republics.

During his first decade in the Kremlin (2000-2009), Putin subsidized the Belarusian planned economy with cheap gas and oil, and cheap credit. Things were complicated by the global crisis and economic contraction in Russia.

Even before the impact of the pandemic, the head of the Kremlin had already given in to pressure from his liberal ministers, who maintain that the Russian economy cannot afford to subsidise a foreign country, however brotherly it may be.

Lukashenko saw the Russian attitude as a full-blown betrayal and, in grief, took revenge by refusing to sign the State Union treaty with Russia last December. Moreover, he did not cease to accuse Moscow of supporting the opposition throughout the election campaign.

That is why not everyone in Moscow looked unfavourably on the outbreak of mass protests against fraud on election night.

Lukashenko is, for some Russian analysts, an ungrateful leader who received US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in February and agreed with Washington to send oil by sea to fill the gap in Russian oil.

The enthusiastic coverage by the Russian public media, to which the arrests and abuses suffered by Russian reporters contributed, showed how fed up they were with the ways of the last European dictator.

But there was much more at stake on the streets of Minsk than Lukashenko's future. It is well known that Belarusian opposition leaders have links with Moscow, but they are against remaining a Russian protectorate.

No one doubts that, once Lukashenko is overthrown, the continent's last planned economy will have to rethink its foreign policy, diversify its energy sources and face a privatisation programme in which European companies would have much to say.

Too many risks. Putin has, for the time being, chosen to support his ally, despite the numerous rashes of recent years, which include Minsk's refusal to deploy Russian military bases on its territory.

In a message to sailors addressed to the opposition, Putin expressed his support for ensuring national security to Lukashenko by phone on Saturday, while denouncing attempts at external interference.

In short, the West is reportedly sponsoring another "colourful revolution" in an attempt to overthrow a legitimately elected president at the polls.

The Kremlin communiqué on that conversation cited the State Union treaty, article 2 of which stipulates that one of the objectives of the State Union is to ensure national security.

In line with Lukashenko's denunciations of alleged "external aggression", this treaty includes a common defence policy and the obligation to defend "the integrity and inviolability of the Union's territory".

The Kremlin also mentioned the armed wing of the post-Soviet community, the Collective Security Treaty Organisation, a sort of Russian-led Warsaw Pact.

According to this document, Russia could intervene militarily in Belarus, but only if Minsk requests it in the event of "external aggression".

No one doubts that Russian support is what Minsk was looking for when it handed over the 32 alleged mercenaries of the Russian private military company Wagner to Moscow last week.

Ukraine, which had requested their extradition and whose Prosecutor's Office was invited to Minsk, reacted indignantly and on Monday called its ambassador in Belarus for consultations.

The Russian press also points out that a Russian intervention would require the support, albeit tacit, of Kazakhstan, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, countries which would therefore be under great international pressure.

What is certain is that a Russian military intervention in the neighbouring country would not be well received by the local population, nor by the Russians themselves, who would never accept Moscow's active participation in the violent repression of demonstrations.

Lukashenko could cause more problems than benefits if he convinces Putin to intervene in Belarus, as the Western reaction could be even worse than the one that caused the criminal annexation and the Russian intervention in the Donbas.

In view of the fact that anti-Russian rhetoric was no longer useful, Lukashenko has in recent days begun to raise a supposed NATO threat. According to this scenario, Poland and Lithuania, where opposition leader Svetlana Tijanovskaya is in exile, have deployed troops in the area.

Although Allied Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg criticized the repression of freedoms from the beginning, Nato came out in the face of such criticism on Monday and stressed that "Nato is not a threat" to Belarus.

The phone conversation between Lukashenko and Putin set off all the alarms. Germany called a possible Russian military intervention in Belarus "unacceptable", while assuring that Lukashenko had lost the confidence of his people.

Neighbouring Poland denounced that the Belarusian army had started military manoeuvres in the area of Grodno on the Polish and Lithuanian border which will last until 20th August.

At the same time, Lithuania, which is facing Belarus over the construction of a nuclear power plant 40 kilometres from Vilnius, made it clear that this was an unbeatable opportunity to drive a wedge between Moscow and Minsk.

For the time being, the European Union has already moved forward by adopting sanctions against those responsible for the violence and the European Parliament considered Lukashenko "persona non grata" on EU territory.

In a demonstration that Brussels does not consider him a minor problem, the EU will hold an extraordinary summit on Wednesday to address the latest developments in Belarus.

Pompeo, the highest US official to visit Minsk in 25 years, was slow to react but also joined in the condemnations of police repression and election fraud.

He was seconded on Monday by US President Donald Trump, who called the situation in the former Soviet republic "terrible".