The Professor of Political Science and Director of the Master's Degree in 'Analysis of Terrorism Prevention' at the Rey Juan Carlos University was on the programme De Cara al Mundo on Onda Madrid

Rogelio Alonso: "Afghanistan will be a precedent that will mark us for a long time"

photo_camera rogelio alonso

Rogelio Alonso, Professor of Political Science and Director of the Master's Degree 'Analysis of Terrorism Prevention' at the Rey Juan Carlos University, visited the microphones of the programme De Cara al Mundo on Onda Madrid, directed by Javier Fernández Arribas, director of Atalayar, and analysed the current panorama of the jihadist terrorist threat in the world. 

Without wishing to create alarm, should we be aware that the terrorist threat continues?

Yes, as you rightly point out, what is necessary is to provide correct information on the terrorist phenomenon, which has major political implications as well as, logically, human and social ones. In this sense, it is interesting to analyse the current state of the jihadist threat. In order to make this analysis, it is useful to assess three variables: the scenario following the so-called caliphate that the terrorist group Islamic State managed to extend over a significant part of the territory; fortunately, the international coalition managed to decimate this terrorist group to a large extent and, therefore, we are in a "post-caliphate" scenario. Second, another variable is the post-COVID-19 scenario; although we are still immersed in the pandemic, we can already analyse what the effects of the pandemic have been on the terrorist threat. Finally, the third important variable is the post-withdrawal scenario of both NATO and the United States from Afghanistan; with these three variables we can shed some light on the current threat situation.

After the departure of NATO and the United States, the so-called Islamic State has committed several attacks in Afghanistan, and could there be a high-level confrontation between DAESH and the Taliban?

What has happened in Afghanistan is certainly very important from the point of view of the terrorist threat because the US and NATO withdrawal and the manner in which it is taking place certainly reinforces the narrative of some terrorist groups that terrorism is effective and has a utility. Unfortunately this has been the case, the manner of the withdrawal sends the message that violence has utility, in this case violence by the Taliban. We are now facing a scenario in which there are active terrorist groups, in addition to the Taliban themselves, such as the Islamic State in Afghanistan. What will happen from now on in a state that is largely a failed state, as it will be governed by a terrorist network, is very much open to debate and influences many variables - is DAESH strong enough? What has become evident in the post-caliphate scenario is that the Islamic State has been considerably decimated operationally thanks to the action of the international coalition, but unfortunately it still retains its influence, its inspiration to be able to mobilise and recruit individuals. The decentralised structure of the Islamic State, like that of Al-Qaeda, which remains a terrorist threat, indicates that they still retain that inspirational pull to be able to attract individuals and carry out terrorist actions. In addition to that pull, they have also maintained their ability to decentralise in order to establish regional alliances in different parts of the world with other terrorist groups, and this has strengthened them. Therefore, we have counterweights despite this operational weakening and having been decimated, these terrorist groups such as the Islamic State or Al-Qaeda have managed to compensate for these setbacks with these strategic successes and with this strategic adaptation. In this way, they still have a significant and considerable capacity to carry out terrorist actions not only in Afghanistan, but also in other areas, including the sub-Saharan strip, which is very close to Spain and therefore poses a significant risk. 

rogelio alonso  

Are we paying enough attention to what is happening in the Sahel?

The problem is not only attention, but also resources and capabilities. There is certainly a shift in jihadist activity, once Syria and Iraq are no longer the main focus, as international action significantly decimates the Islamic State terrorist group. There is a shift and we can see that there is intense activity in the sub-Saharan strip, but how can we deal with the threats in that area? We are faced with a region full of failed states with very limited capacities to deal with terrorist groups that weave alliances among themselves that allow them to strengthen themselves. It is very difficult for these states to confront these terrorist groups because of their limited capabilities, with armies and security forces that are very limited in their capacities and require international collaboration and cooperation to strengthen them. It is not easy for Western countries, as we have seen in the case of France, to collaborate effectively with these states in order to strengthen their armed forces given the difficulties they face. With the precedent of Afghanistan, we have seen how complicated it is to maintain an international presence for a very long time beyond the borders of Western nations and how difficult it is to reinforce the structures of failed states. For all these reasons, we have a complex puzzle with different variables that make it difficult to respond to these terrorist groups that are trying to take advantage of the weaknesses offered by these areas, including the sub-Saharan strip and the Sahel.

There is talk of reinforcing Europe's defence. Would the Sahel be one of the main areas to which Europe should pay attention? Should the political will of European governments be stronger when it comes to dealing with this situation?

Unfortunately, Afghanistan will be a precedent that will mark us for a very long time. I am not underestimating the complexity of the mission in Afghanistan, not at all, it is a mission of enormous difficulty in which factors intervene that make it very difficult to fulfil the mission, but we cannot forget that there was a mission in Afghanistan with certain objectives and these objectives have been abandoned, and we must be very aware of the strategic failure of not having known how to be faithful to NATO's mission and objectives in Afghanistan, and therefore, complacency and ignoring the fact that we have not been able to fulfil those strategic objectives, I insist, without ignoring the complexity of the mission, is not conducive to anything. This has a reading and consequences for a scenario such as the one we are facing in the Sahel.

If Morocco, Algeria, Mauritania or Tunisia were destabilised, the situation would be catastrophic for Europe.

Exactly, it is clear that there is a geographical proximity and that we have a complex and delicate situation in terms of relations with Morocco, a country that is important as a neighbour and in anti-terrorist cooperation, but which at the same time carries out hostile actions such as those it has taken this year with the opening of the border to invade Spanish territory. There is a very complicated balance and there is undoubtedly a vulnerability and, as I said earlier, the precedent of Afghanistan marks us because we set a very clear precedent of a lack of will to fulfil certain objectives. Furthermore, we have seen in the past another precedent that points to the late reaction to the Islamic State. When this terrorist group advances, the response of the international coalition is considerably delayed, thus facilitating the advance of a terrorist group such as the Islamic State. If we do not have the capacity to respond to and anticipate the risks that are currently posed in a geographical area very close to us, such as the sub-Saharan region and the Sahel, what we will be doing is allowing the risks to become threats that are more difficult to resolve and confront, with the consequent difficulty for our security. 

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