Russia announces end to military exercises in Crimea amid NATO and Ukraine misgivings

Russia continues to withdraw troops close to Ukraine, a step that is helping to ease tensions in the region. On the same day that the United States predicted an alleged Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin has announced the end of its military exercises in Crimea, a region annexed by Moscow in 2014. "Units of the Southern Military District, after completing their participation in tactical exercises, are moving to their permanent deployment points," the Russian Defence Ministry said in a statement. Meanwhile, Russia's state news agency, RIA Novosty, has released video footage showing military units crossing a bridge linking the peninsula to the mainland.

The note released by Sergey Shoigu's ministry also noted that the teams and troops "will prepare for the upcoming combat training" once they return to their permanent bases, namely in Dagestan and North Ossetia, reports TASS.

The move comes a day after Russia withdrew part of its troops from the Ukrainian border. However, Shoigu informed President Vladimir Putin on Monday that some of the planned military manoeuvres were already coming to an end. Others, however, "will be completed in the near future", as the minister stressed. Joint exercises between Russia and Belarus, known as Union Resolve 2022, are also scheduled to end on 20 February. In late December, Putin announced plans to conduct exercises with his neighbour early this year. Minsk agreed, claiming that these would benefit Belarusian-Russian relations.

Also, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov hinted at an end to military operations last week during a meeting with his British counterpart, Liz Truss. "In some time the Western countries will learn that the Russian-Belarusian manoeuvres have ended and Russian troops have returned to Russian territory," Lavrov said. "Then there will be a big fuss to show that the West has succeeded in de-escalating Russia. In reality, however, it will be a smoke and mirrors exercise," he added, recalling that these exercises were already scheduled and were not permanent.

In this regard, Lavrov stressed that, on the contrary, NATO troops, after manoeuvres in the Baltic and Black Sea countries, "as a rule, never return home". Since the annexation of Crimea in 2014, which NATO considers "illegal and illegitimate", the Alliance has increased its presence in the region. According to Foreign Policy, NATO allies have established enhanced forward presence forces of approximately 1,000 troops in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Meanwhile, in Poland, Washington has deployed 5,000 troops.

Nevertheless, Western countries are still wary of Russia's plans. US President Joe Biden stressed that despite the troop withdrawal, a Russian attack remains "a possibility". "In fact, our analysts indicate that they remain in a very threatening position," he added, noting that an invasion would lead to "incredible human suffering". The US president held a phone call with his French counterpart, Emmanuel Macron, after Russia's announcement, and both stressed that Moscow's information needed to be verified.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, who said that there were "grounds for cautious optimism", but that he had "not yet seen any signs of détente on the ground", also took the same line. Stoltenberg, speaking at a press conference ahead of a meeting of NATO Defence Ministers, said he had seen "no de-escalation on the ground". "On the contrary, Russia seems to be continuing its military build-up," the secretary-general added at NATO headquarters in Brussels on Wednesday.

Stoltenberg told reporters that images showing the movement of troops and tanks "do not confirm a real withdrawal", as Russia "has always moved its units back and forth".

US intelligence, along with British intelligence, warned of an 'imminent invasion' of Ukraine by Moscow and even set a date for this supposed 'aggression'. The British tabloid, the Daily Mirror, went further and claimed that, according to "high-ranking" US sources, the invasion would take place at 03:00 am on 16 February.

The Russian authorities have spoken out against this "mistake" by US intelligence. "February 15, 2022 will go down in history as the day when Western war propaganda failed. Humiliated and destroyed without firing a single shot," Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova wrote on social media. Regarding the decision by some countries to move the embassy from Kiev to the western city of Lviv, Kremlin spokesperson Dimity Peskov called the move "ostentatious hysteria".

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, meanwhile, accused Moscow of sending "mixed signals" to the West because, according to the Prime Minister, the Russian army continues to build field hospitals near the Ukrainian border. This move, according to the British leader, "can only be interpreted as preparation for an invasion".

The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, also spoke of "contradictory signals", stressing that "on the one hand, the authorities announce troop withdrawals" and "on the other hand, the Duma votes for full recognition of Donetsk and Luhansk as independent republics". Russian MPs voted for the government to recognise the independence of the pro-Russian regions of Donetsk and Lugansk. The petition, submitted by the communist parliamentary group, was backed by 351 of the 450 deputies in the chamber.

Peskov did not reveal whether Putin would approve the resolution. "An official decision on the matter has not been taken," he admitted, although he did say that the Duma's request "reflects the opinion of the Russian people". The Russian leader, for his part, declared during the joint press conference with Chancellor Olaf Scholz that the solution to "the problems of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics" must be based on the Minsk Agreements. 

Moscow's recognition of the independence of the separatist regions would mean the end of this treaty, although Russia has on occasion accused Ukraine of not respecting the agreement, as Kiev refuses to engage in dialogue with the leaders of the separatist regions. Russia has repeatedly denounced discrimination against the Russian-speaking population in the area, as well as "massive and systematic violation of human rights". The document addressed to Putin by the Duma also alludes to a "genocide against its own people", while accusing Kiev of suspending pensions and social benefits to citizens, resulting in "a total economic blockade of the population and businesses" in Donetsk and Luhansk.

The head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, has called on Putin to reject the request presented by the Russian parliament, recalling that such a step would be a "clear violation of the Minsk Agreements". "The support and commitment of the European Union to the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine within its internationally recognised borders remain unwavering," the Spanish diplomat said.

Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelensky has urged Ukrainian citizens to celebrate "Unity Day" on Wednesday 16 February. The Ukrainian leader has chosen this date to symbolically extol patriotism, as it was the day Washington emerged from a possible Russian attack. "Our state today is stronger than ever," Zelensky emphasised.

The day was marked by recent cyber attacks on several government websites, including the Defence Ministry and the Armed Forces portal. Ukraine's Privatbank and state-owned Sberbank also reported problems with online payments and phone applications.

Regarding the withdrawal of Russian troops, Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said that when they see de-escalation, they will believe in de-escalation. "We have one rule: don't believe what you hear, believe what you see," he said. 

Despite the West and Ukraine questioning Russia's troop withdrawal, Moscow's announcement has provided a shot in the arm for the global economy, which had suffered significantly from rising tensions in Europe. European and Asian stock markets rose sharply, as did Wall Street. The price of Brent crude oil fell after reaching 96 dollars a barrel. After the military de-escalation, the price of crude oil has fallen to 93 dollars. This is a relief for consumers' pockets, as well as alleviating the energy crisis that several parts of the world have been suffering for months.