Russian President Vladimir Putin is preparing to announce the victory of the 'yes' vote on the accession of four Ukrainian regions to the Russian Federation in order to dissipate internal instability

Russia finalises outcome of Ukraine's illegal annexation referendums

photo_camera AFP/ YURIY LASHOV - A man sticks a sticker with the colours of the Russian national flag and the Russian coat of arms, the double-headed eagle, on a Ukrainian flag on the number plate of his car in Simferopol, the capital of Crimea, 14 April 2014

The annexation referendums organised by the Kremlin in the Lugansk, Donetsk, Zaporiyia and Kherson oblasts will end on Tuesday. Residents of these four Ukrainian regions have had five days to go to the polls and decide whether or not they want to join Russia. In many cases, it has not even been necessary for them to leave their homes. Russian soldiers themselves, in groups and armed with AK-47 assault rifles, have taken ballots door to door. The Russian state news agency TASS cites security reasons for this modus operandi. Ballot boxes have even been placed on buses. 

Obviously, there are no guarantees. The result is predetermined. International law describes the vote as illegal, in the same way that the annexation of the Crimean peninsula in 2014, executed through another fraudulent referendum, was illegal. The international community does not and will not recognise Russian sovereignty over these territories, but it serves to give Moscow a veneer of legitimacy to its occupation. In the event of an attack, it could justify that its territorial integrity is being threatened. The reality is that none of these areas are entirely under its control.

Russian soldiers are forcing people to vote "at gunpoint", according to drip-feed accounts from residents. Threats, coercion or intimidation: anything goes and every vote counts. And even with that, the turnout is not high, not even the one published by the pro-Russian authorities.

Vladímir Putin

The chairwoman of the Kherson Election Commission, Marina Zakharova, said on Monday evening that the turnout had risen to 63.58%. "Kherson recorded a massive turnout on the last day of the referendum on the region's accession to Russia," the Kremlin-friendly media reported. Elsewhere, higher turnout figures are reported. But they are not credible. 

The question on the ballot paper differs from region to region. In the Donbas Oblasts of Lugansk and Donetsk, for example, voters are asked in Russian whether they 'support the accession of their Republic to Russia as a federal subject'. While in Zaporiyia or Kherson, the ballot contains the following question, written in Russian or Ukrainian: "Do you support the secession of the region from Ukraine, the creation of an independent country and subsequent accession to Russia as a federal subject?" They can choose 'no', but whatever they choose, there are no secrets. The authorities know what all the votes mean. 

The exiled governor of Lugansk, Serhiy Haidai, told the Associated Press that pro-Russian separatists have registered the identity of all those who voted against annexation or even those who refused to participate. They also allegedly used the illegal plebiscite to search homes for troops to mobilise and to check for suspected supporters of the other side.

Volodimir Zelenski

Myjailo Podolyak, an advisor to Ukrainian President Volodymir Zelenski, told the Swiss daily Blick that "hundreds of collaborators will be tried for treason", with sentences of more than five years in prison, referring to "people with Ukrainian nationality who helped organise this travesty of a referendum". "We have lists of names of people who have been involved," Podolyak said. On the other hand, those who have been forced to participate will not be retaliated against in any way. 

Russian President Vladimir Putin plans to announce the results, i.e. the "victory" of Russia's accession at the ballot box, on Friday 30 September in a speech to both houses of parliament. 

This is according to a British intelligence report released by the UK Ministry of Defence on Tuesday. With the announcement, Putin hopes to dispel the doubts generated by the recent "partial mobilisation" and close ranks around the Kremlin now that the "special military campaign" and his leadership are beginning to be questioned.

Battle for the Donbas

Two weeks after the Ukrainian army's successful counteroffensive, which managed to pocket 2,000 kilometres of territory to the east and force Russian forces to withdraw, Zelensky's troops are pushing to recapture the towns of Liman and Bajmut, two strategic enclaves that have served throughout the conflict as logistical supply centres. Fighting is intensifying as Kiev gains the upper hand with Western military and arms assistance. 

Russian Security Council deputy chairman Dmitry Medvedev has defended Russia's right to use nuclear weapons if "necessary" on his Telegram account following veiled threats from the Kremlin chief. The former Russian prime minister, seen abroad as a liberal in Putin's circle before taking turns in the presidency with him when his maximum number of terms expired, also assured that NATO "would not intervene directly" in any case. 

Russia's internal tensions are rising after the "partial" recall. The blatant violation of the mobilisation decrees has sparked a series of riots in various parts of the country. Many cities have witnessed protests and more than 2,000 people have been arrested. Another 200,000 have fled Russia.

Nord Stream

Interviewed by the specialised media Meduza, political scientist Vladimir Gelman argues that the main reason hindering the outbreak of protests on a larger scale is the lack of organisation. "The potential of protests goes beyond individual cases, but so far we have only seen such phenomena," he notes.

Sabotage on Nord Stream 1 and 2

Swedish and Danish authorities on Tuesday reported a series of leaks on the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines that have left them completely unusable. The network operator announced early this morning that three of the offshore pipelines had suffered unprecedented damage, apparently the result of sabotage according to initial investigations, and added that it could not estimate when supply would be restored. 

Flows, however, have remained at 20% of capacity since last June.

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