El Sáhara, en el tablero del nuevo orden mundial

The Sahara, due to its wealth of natural resources, is a strategic area coveted both by the Maghreb countries themselves and by external actors who need these resources for their economic development.

As the US national security strategy, published in 2022, states, China "is the only country with both the intent to reshape the international order and, increasingly, the economic, diplomatic, military, and technological power to further that goal".

The pact that Russia and China jointly sealed during the Winter Olympics in Beijing in February 2022 strengthened the "boundless" friendship between these two great superpowers and made it clear that the international game board was changing. This document affirmed that the redistribution of power in the world must be truly multipolar. In a global context in which countries are defining which "side" they are on and in many cases changing their traditional relations with the West for Russia, as in the case of Mali or Burkina Faso, what is China's position on Western Sahara?

Morocco and China have had an excellent relationship for many years. King Mohammed VI's official visit to China in 2016 allowed the strengthening of political relations between the two countries and led to a series of major economic agreements to develop projects with Chinese funding in Morocco. Similarly, the Alawi kingdom exports copper, phosphates and zinc to China, while China exports mainly broadcasting equipment and tea. In 2020, trade between the two countries reached 4.76 billion dollars.

On the other hand, Algeria's relations with China date back to the Mao Zedong era. According to China Global Investment Tracker, China has significant construction and investment activities in Algeria. Between 2005-2020, investments worth 23.85 billion dollars were concentrated in the transport and real estate sectors. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) was also signed by Algeria in 2018, making way for more of the Asian giant's mega-projects in Algeria. The East-West Highway, which runs 1,700 kilometres across northern Algeria, made by the Citic-CRCCC company, is yet another example of China's investments in Africa's largest country. Likewise, China's three giant state-owned energy companies have been active in Algeria for almost two decades, as the country is the 16th largest oil producer. 

Western Sahara has numerous natural resources such as sand for cement, oil, fish and phosphates that are being exploited by Morocco. Phosphates and rare earth elements from northwest Africa are of vital interest to China, as shown by its trade agreements in the Maghreb. Morocco holds more than 70% of the world's phosphate reserves, while Algeria has the world's fourth largest reserves. In 2018, China's CITIC Construction signed an agreement with Algeria's Sonatrach to build a 6 billion dollar integrated phosphate production plant that would increase Algeria's annual output to 10 million tonnes. Meanwhile, China's Hubei Forbon Technology established a joint venture with Morocco's state-owned phosphate giant OCP in January 2021 to develop next-generation fertilisers.

Similarly, Beijing also has its eye on rare earth elements allegedly located in phosphorus deposits in Western Sahara. China maintains a neutral policy on the Western Sahara dispute, officially supporting UN efforts for a Sahrawi referendum, while carefully balancing its economic interests in Morocco and Algeria. While it is true that China always preaches non-interference in other countries' internal affairs and bases its geopolitics on its economic influence, the meeting in 2022 between the Algerian Foreign Minister and the Asian giant highlighted Beijing's rapprochement with Algeria. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi supported 'efforts for a just and lasting solution based on international law' and 'UN resolutions'.

Deteriorating relations between Morocco and Algeria from 2021 may further increase instability in the region, in a world of growing new conflicts and shifting realignments in global geopolitics. While Algeria is moving ever closer to Russia, especially on the arms front, Morocco continues to look to the US and its latest international partner, Israel. 

At the same time, the EU has more developed ties with Morocco than with Algeria, especially with France and Spain, in terms of trade, migration and counter-terrorism. In turn, Algeria depends on Europe for its foreign trade, as the EU is Algeria's largest trading partner, accounting for 46.7% of Algeria's exports (mainly hydrocarbons). After the war in Ukraine and cuts in sales of Russian oil and gas to Europe, Europe had to look to its other producing neighbours and increase its gas supply contracts with Algeria. 

For two years, the break by the Polisario Front of the 1991 ceasefire with Morocco and the worsening of relations between Rabat and Algiers have led to greater instability in the region and a worsening of relations with the EU in the first instance. Any further deterioration in relations between Algeria and Morocco could have significant consequences for Europe, which depends on gas from the Algerian giant. The conflict between the two countries is likely to lead to a worsening socio-economic situation in both countries and a sharp increase in migration to the EU. It would have a profoundly destabilising impact on the Maghreb and Sahel regions as Sahelian terrorist groups or drug trafficking mafias could gain ground. Thus, finding solutions and improving relations between the two Maghreb countries is key to stability in Europe and North Africa, and the various external actors with interests in these regions should impartially bring the two countries closer together to avoid an escalation of tensions in the Maghreb.