Slim chance of Chinese rocket debris falling over Spain or Africa
The military personnel of the Air Force's Space Surveillance Operations Centre (COVE) follow second by second the re-entry trajectory into the Earth's atmosphere of the central stage of the Chinese Long March 5B rocket, a cylindrical metallic structure weighing between 17 and 20 tonnes, some 31 metres long and 5 metres in diameter.
A military organisation with the mission of monitoring outer space, the COVE is located at the Torrejón air base. From there, Spanish military technicians receive information from the space environment surveillance radar installed at the Morón air base.
They also exchange information with the long-range telescopes located in Spain that make up the National Space Surveillance and Tracking System and with their equivalents in the European consortium that makes up the European Union's Space Surveillance and Tracking Network.
With the data in its possession and the continuous monitoring of the trajectory of the heavy object, the COVE estimates that the forecasts are "low" with respect to the impact occurring in Spain, and much less in populated areas and producing damage to property or people.
Instead, they expect it to disintegrate, most of its fragments to burn up in the upper atmosphere and its debris to sink into the oceans that cover our planet, which is expected to take place between 8 and 9 May.
What usually happens in such cases is that only a small part of the large cylindrical structure or parts of it reach the Earth's surface intact or deformed. If this happens, current estimates are that the debris will fall into the Atlantic or Pacific oceans, northeast Africa, southern Europe or somewhere in Russia.
Clearly, the uncontrolled, low-speed descent to Earth of the huge upper stage of the massive Long March 5B launcher has generated uncertainty and fears in those countries and places where there is any chance of an impact, however remote.
The 29 April launch of the Long March 5B heavy rocket from the Wenchang Space Centre has generated two objects in orbit. First, the 22.5 tonne Tianhe core module, which is the first link in China's space station. Secondly, the rocket's central stage, which have been designated by the United Nations as COSPAR 2021-035A and B, respectively.
After placing Tianhe in orbit, the stage should have re-entered the atmosphere with its descent supervised by an automatic control system to bring it down over the so-called Nemo point, an area in the southern Pacific Ocean far from any coastline. However, the stage that is now falling uncontrolled has no such automatic system to guide its descent, nor do Chinese space agency technicians have the instruments to do so.
China is a party to the Liability Convention. This is an international agreement which stipulates and ensures that damage caused to the Earth's surface by an object from space manufactured by one of the signatory nations to the convention will be their full responsibility, including the payment of compensation in the event of damage.
The maiden flight of Long March 5 dates back to November 2016. It is a two-stage launcher powered by four large boosters mounted around a large 21-tonne central stage. That's seven times heavier than the second stage of the US Falcon 9 rocket and three times that of a Russian Soyuz second stage.
COVE was inaugurated last February and is currently in the process of activating its full capabilities, which is expected to be achieved by June 2023.
