Somalia, light at the end of the tunnel?
The Democratic Republic of Somalia was established in 1969 following a coup d'état by General Siad Barre, who was supported by the then powerful Soviet Union. However, as a result of the Ogaden War that took place between 1977 and 1978 between Somalia and Ethiopia, Barre lost the favour of the USSR, though he gained the sympathy of the United States in the bipolar world of the Cold War.
The dictator Barre longed for a pan-Somali nation, which was named "Greater Somalia" and would encompass the territory of Somalia, as well as Ogaden (eastern Ethiopia) and other geographical areas such as northeast Kenya and eastern Djibouti. During the first months of the war, Somalia came to control much of Ogaden's territory until the Soviet Union decided to intervene to help Ethiopia, which was operating under the Derg communist regime, with over 20,000 soldiers from Cuba.
Somali society was already divided into six clans: darod, dir, hawiye, isaq, digiel and rahanweyn1. After the failure of the war against Ethiopia, Barre provoked a clash between the very clans that made up Somali society, strengthening his own while closely controlling the others. This fratricidal inter-clan struggle gradually intensified until the dictator Barre lost control of almost all his territory in the late 1980s, only to be overthrown in 1991.
The great complexity of Somali society, composed of different clans influenced by different countries such as Ethiopia, France or the United Kingdom, and the social destabilisation that Barre2 provoked, triggered the deepest chaos in the country, becoming a defragmented and violent territory under the power struggle of different warlords, leaders of their respective clans. In addition, in the face of this situation, various radical Islamist groups fought the warlords in an attempt to impose Sharia law and rule the country under an Islamist regime.1.
It is worth highlighting two other events that took place years later and which we consider to be important. On the one hand, the failed attempt by the President of the United States, George Bush Senior, to intervene militarily in the country to end the violence and famine in Somali society. On the other hand, the attempted unity government in 20003 , which had to deal with various political conflicts, such as the declaration of independence of the northern region of the country, Puntland, in 1998.
To conclude this section, we would like to highlight the rise of jihadist terrorism that the country has suffered from for decades. The occupation of various strategic points in the country, such as the control of Mogadishu in June 2006 by the Union of Islamic Courts, led Ethiopian and Somali troops, which had the military support of the United States, to confront these radical Islamist groups, managing to recover the country's capital and, in part, control of part of the territory. However, the jihadist organisation Al Shabaab, which was later recognised as an official member of Al-Qaeda, gained popularity and has since been trying to re-establish control of the country and establish a Wahhabi regime.1
After this brief review of the context, we must mark 2012 as a turning point for Somalia with the adoption of an interim constitution and the formation of the federal government of Somalia on 20 August 2012. Let us not forget that this is the first attempt at centralized state control since the collapse of the Siad Barre dictatorship. However, Al Shabaab jihadist terrorism has not ceased its activities and, among other things, in October 2017, it carried out an attack in Mogadishu that killed at least 276 people in what the international press has called "the worst attack in the history of Somalia".4
Political tensions have not abated since then, such as that resulting from Somaliland's exclusion from the national alliance formed by the five states in October 2016: Jubaland, South West, Hirshabelle, Galmudug and Puntland.1 Organised crime by the jihadist organisation Al Shabaab and problems arising from climate change have been - and continue to be - two of the main challenges facing this national alliance. Undoubtedly, one of the most critical points in the country's recent history has been the clash between the federal presidents and the government in Mogadishu in September 2018, over their inability to advance towards security and their alleged extension of powers.
In December of this year, legislative elections will finally be held, and in February 2021, presidential elections will take place. But the tensions do not stop there. Just a few days ago, twelve presidential candidates rejected the committees responsible for organising the legislative elections, stressing that the election of Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble "calls into question the credibility of the elections".5 Could this process lead to the annulment of the elections and a return to hostilities? Let us hope not.
In addition, a few weeks ago, Donald Trump called for the withdrawal of nearly 800 US troops deployed in Somalia, in line with his promise to send the soldiers back on missions abroad.6 If the weak capacity of the Somali government to maintain national security is compounded by the possible departure of US soldiers, in addition to the political tensions that are intensifying these days, could this represent a golden opportunity for Al Shabaab jihadist terrorism to attack various territories in the country? Again, let's hope not. We will observe the turbulent months ahead for the development of these elections in Somalia and the foreign policy that Biden will decide to adopt during his new term.
BIBLIOGRAFÍA
1. Díez, J. (2019). Somalia: hay futuro. Recuperado de https://dialnet.unirioja.es/servlet/articulo?codigo=7257611
2. El conflicto de Somalia. Recuperado de http://www.solidaritat.ub.edu/observatori/esp/dossiers/somalia/somalia.htm#inici
3. Por qué Somalia es el "Estado más fallido de África" y qué le impide dejar de serlo. (25 de octubre de 2017). BBC News. Recuperado de https://www.bbc.com/mundo/noticias-internacional-41652407
4. Somalia: al menos 276 muertos deja "el peor ataque en la historia" de Mogadiscio. (15 de octubre de 2017). BBC News. Recuperado de https://www.bbc.com/mundo/noticias-internacional-41628059
5. Doce candidatos a la Presidencia rechazan los comités encargados de organizar las parlamentarias en Somalia. (9 de noviembre de 2020). Europa Press. Recuperado de https://www.europapress.es/internacional/noticia-doce-candidatos-presidencia-rechazan-comites-encargados-organizar-parlamentarias-somalia-20201109164444.html
6. Trump pide un plan para la retirada de las tropas estadounidenses de Somalia. (14 de octubre de 2020). Europa Press. Recuperado de https://www.europapress.es/internacional/noticia-trump-pide-plan-retirada-tropas-estadounidenses-somalia-20201014110336.html
