Sudan: UN special envoy optimistic about possible political change in the country

Volker Perthes, the UN Secretary-General's representative in Sudan, made an appearance in the regional press during which he claimed that the country's political forces are close to reaching an agreement with the military's ruling junta headed by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan. 

Al Hadath media reported these statements on Wednesday 29 June, the day before the start of mass protests in the country's capital, Khartoum, called by the opposition to the military junta. 

The UN special mission in Sudan is part of the so-called "Tripartite Mechanism" along with the African Union and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development, the international organisation that brings together the countries of the Horn of Africa. This triad of international organisations is a crucial element in moving the political situation forward, according to the demands of Sudan's civilian leaders, mostly represented by the coalition known as the Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC). 

مُقتطفات من تصريحات الممثل الخاص للأمين العام د. فولكر بيرتس مع قناة العربية/الحدث بتاريخ ٢٩ يونيو ٢٠٢٢ pic.twitter.com/fYWJK4jEwx

— UN Integrated Transition Assistance Mission Sudan (@UNITAMS) June 29, 2022

"We are not (UN) party to the talks between the FFC and the military, but we know they are 80% of the way to an agreement," Perthes said, according to local media reports. 

Still according to al-Hadath, Perthes clarified that "the main point of contention between the two sides revolves around the levels of power in an eventual new form of government, in addition to the survival of the military in the institutions of government". 

In this regard, Perthes has publicly accepted that the military coup leaders should remain part of Sudan's government, a concession that the political leaders will have to be willing to accept if they are to reach an agreement that would end Sudan's more than 50 weeks of democratic transition. 

The FFC, however, still does not accept the military coup leaders as part of the future transitional government. Sudanese civil society has therefore called for a new wave of demonstrations that are expected to flood the streets, especially in the capital, Khartoum. Internet and power cuts are again expected. The UN representative has urged caution in an attempt to de-escalate the tensions and violence of the clashes between demonstrators and security forces loyal to the military junta. 

According to local activist sources, the first mobilisations in Khartoum were recorded during the afternoon of Wednesday 29. Since the first protests following the coup in October 2021, NGOs have recorded at least 103 deaths related to the demonstrations.

Still according to statements reported by Al Hadath, Perthes also addresses rumours accusing the UN of conducting negotiations with Sudanese stakeholders in parallel to those of the tripartite mechanism. These rumours stem from statements made by Mohamed Belaiche, the AU's special envoy for the democratic process in Sudan, when he said that "The AU cannot participate in a path that does not follow transparency, honesty and non-exclusion". Following these words, several Sudanese media outlets intoxicated the Sudanese media by claiming that the AU was abandoning the Tripartite Mechanism processes. 

Following the coup d'état in Sudan by the military leadership led by al-Burhan, which brought an end to the transitional democratic government, the country has been plunged into a whirlwind of political instability. The deposed president, Hamdok, was returned to his post, which he was to step down again a few weeks later. Since then, the military junta has been the de facto ruling power in a country ravaged by famine and war. The situation worsened during June 2022, when skirmishes broke out with neighbouring Ethiopia over the Al-Fashaga border area. 

Internationally, al-Burhan has powerful allies, notably Egypt. Before staging the coup in Sudan, General al-Burhan travelled to Cairo to get the go-ahead from Al-Sisi, the region's top leader. Egypt is currently in dispute with Ethiopia over the Grand Renaissance Dam project affecting the region's backbone, the Nile.