Tajikistan: the Panjshir resistance's safe haven

"The Panjshir resistance has failed," concluded the leader of the Afghan National Congress Party last September when the Taliban seized control of the area. With the capture of the Panjshir Valley, the last bastion of resistance against the Taliban, the insurgents raised their banner in the last Afghan provincial capital not under the control of the radicals.

With the capture of the Panjshir Valley, the Taliban inaugurated an unprecedented new phase in a pocket of resistance that had never before fallen under Afghan control. This stronghold managed to hold out in the 1990s, between 1996 and 2001. Not even the Soviets were able to take control of the area decades earlier. However, recent developments reveal that the Taliban have managed to occupy the area, forcing the resistance leaders to flee to Tajikistan. Tajikistan is currently serving as a safe haven for National Resistance Front leaders including leader Ahmad Massoud, former vice-president and self-proclaimed acting president of Afghanistan, Amrullah Saleh along with the leader of the Afghan National Congress Party, Abdul Latif Pedram.

According to a report by the Financial Times, these leaders are reportedly in the capital Dushanbe, where the Tajik government is reportedly providing them with refuge. In this regard, while other neighbouring countries such as Russia, China and Uzbekistan have been moving closer to the Taliban regime with a view to establishing diplomatic relations, Tajikistan has remained fiercely opposed to the new Taliban government.

As a symbolic gesture, Tajikistan's President Emomali Rahmon last month bestowed the distinctive "lion of panjshir" proclamation on the father of leader Massoud, Ahmad Shah Massoud, revered for resisting Taliban offensives in 2001 and killed by insurgents on 9 September 2001. 

With the fall of Kabul on 15 August and amid the withdrawal of international troops, President Rahmon warned that the new scenario in Afghanistan could become a new "breeding ground" for terrorism, as it did 20 years ago.

Rahmon has been in power since 1992, making him the only regional leader whose mandate dates back to the previous Taliban government in 1996. As early as 1996, Tajikistan supported the resistance of the Northern Alliance, officially known as the United Islamic Front for the Salvation of Afghanistan, a coalition of mujahideen guerrilla factions. Also, as has happened again, Tajikistan served as a haven for thousands of Afghan refugees fleeing Taliban radicalism.

In this respect, Mehran told France24, Tajikistan has a great deal of experience in this area, so, in his words, "the government of Tajikistan knows these Afghan characters, and this historical precedent is there".

The Tajik president's firm stance on the Taliban has begun to influence political leaders such as French President Emmanuel Macron, who has invited the Tajik president to visit Paris for talks on 13 October.

On the other hand, with the fall of the Panjshir resistance, the leader of the Afghan National Congress Party told the Financial Times that they planned to "maintain good relations with the countries of the region", including Russia, as it is the country in the region that "would have the most power".
 

However, analysts argue that Russia's conciliatory role with the new Taliban regime will limit Tajikistan's role, as the Eurasian giant can exert "coercive pressure" due to its relationship with Russia. In this respect, Tajikistan continues to provide safe havens for the Afghan resistance, but many analysts remain sceptical about the role Tajikistan could take as they argue that there is little chance that "armed opposition to the Taliban across the border will succeed".

With Russia's influence, analysts from GeorgeTown University believe that the main problem Tajikistan will face is that it no longer has the support of Russia, India and Iran in the Alliance coalition, so Tajikistan is not expected to act as a major haven for Afghans, as it was in the past.

Indeed, in September, Tajikistan informed UNHCR that under the current conditions in the country "they could no longer host Afghan refugees". Mulugeta Zewdie, head of the UNHCR mission, said that between Tajikistan and Afghanistan there were "80 families who wanted to cross the border for fear of losing their lives". 

In this regard, Zewdie recalled that after the Taliban seizure of power almost 5,000 Afghan military personnel crossed the border, but after a week in Tajikistan, they were sent back to Afghanistan.

"Their approach is very clear. The Islamic Emirate in a totalitarian system in which there is no place for any of the values that we conceive as essential in the West", pointed out the journalist and professor of international journalism at the Carlos III University of Madrid, Fernando Prieto Arellano, "the Taliban will continue to employ the same maximalist, radical and oppressive criteria that they used between 1996 and 2001 when they were in power for the first time".

In addition, the new Taliban regime is better and more heavily armed. In addition, with the departure of US troops, the Taliban have more than one million US pieces at their disposal, with more than 2,000 armoured vehicles, military drones, 40 vehicles and attack helicopters. In this respect, the Taliban would be much better armed and have better international links, which would substantially affect the support of the Panjshir resistance.

"It would be noxiously naïve to think that the Taliban would make concrete gestures that would make them presentable to the international community," Arellano concludes. As would be the assumption of their old and new allies such as China and very possibly Qatar". 

It is notorious that in the face of the Taliban's great offensive and their attempt to create relations with other countries, the Taliban's government is becoming more entrenched, and Afghanistan is drowning in a spiral of insecurity that affects above all its population and especially women's rights.