Trump hampers future relations between Biden Administration and Iran

The fact that in less than two months Donald Trump will have to hand over the presidential baton to Joe Biden does not appear to be an impediment to making relations with Iran even more tense.

A week ago the New York Times revealed that following the publication of the report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Trump had considered the possibility of attacking one of Iran's main nuclear plants. Specifically that of Natanz, where, according to the IAEA, uranium reserves are 12 times greater than those allowed in the 2015 Nuclear Agreement, which the United States abandoned in 2018.

Accompanied by the vice president, Mike Pence; the secretary of state, Mike Pompeo; and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Mark Milley. It was they who dissuaded the president from any war action that could trigger a dangerous escalation of the war. However, The Daily Beast states that Trump would have given Pompeo carte blanche to increase the pressure on Tehran.

This has basically translated into more economic sanctions that paralyse Iran's economy, such as those announced by the secretary of state last Friday, aimed at Russian and Chinese entities for transferring technology related to the nuclear programme.

On 27 November Mohsen Fajrizadeh, Iran's leading nuclear scientist, identified by US and Israeli intelligence as the "father of the military nuclear plan", was shot dead in a roadside ambush. Tehran immediately accused Israel and the United States of being behind the attack.

Tel Aviv's only statements on the matter have been in the line of ignoring the issue, as the minister of settlement affairs, Tzachi Hanegbi, said he "had no idea". However, US intelligence officials confirmed to the New York Times that Israel was responsible. The fact is that the advanced technology used in the attack, a remote-controlled machine gun, points in that direction.

In Iran, the protests were not long in coming and, as after the assassination of General Qasem Soleimani, thousands of citizens demonstrated by burning American and Israeli flags, as well as images of Trump and Biden.

The Daily Beast states that Trump's last orders to his advisers are to avoid actions that could lead to the assassination of US personnel. However, it leaves the door open for Israel to take the initiative of attacking high-ranking officials in Iran. This could confirm the suspicions of the Islamic Republic.

President-elect Joe Biden and incoming Secretary of State Anthony Blinken have shown interest in returning to what is recognised as one of the Obama Administration's greatest foreign policy successes, the Nuclear Deal of 2015. Provided that Iran meets the conditions set at that time. The Iranians, in turn, are calling for Biden to lift the sanctions imposed by Trump in order to return to the table.

The return of the United States to the JCPOA (the name of the nuclear agreement) and Iran's compliance with it will no doubt be hampered by the Trump Administration's latest efforts to continue to wear down the Iranian economy. The Daily Beast, notes that further sanctions on entities and personalities linked to Iran will be announced in the coming weeks.

It is feared that Trump's latest moves at the head of the United States will make it more difficult for the 46th president to begin his mandate.

Those in power in Tehran continue to be dominated by those who wish to wait for Biden to become president. But it cannot be overlooked that the hardliners are in favour of a forceful response, as they consider that much has been achieved with the assassination of Fajrizadeh, often considered the Iranian equivalent of Robert Oppenheimer, the scientist overseeing the Manhattan Project.

Whether or not there will be a response, and whether it comes directly from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei or Iranian-backed militias, only time will tell. The regime's most conservative members are committed to ending the sanctions, but could seek ways of confronting the United States or its allies in the region to achieve this goal. Furthermore, next May Iran will hold presidential elections, in which Rohaní's conservative rivals hope to win, and will therefore do everything possible to delay any progress at least until after the elections.

The challenge facing the future Biden Administration is certainly great. The hand is outstretched, though the future president's entourage, specifically Jake Sullivan, the next national security adviser and secret emissary at the start of negotiations on the 2015 agreement, assures us that "it depends on Iran".