Tunisia on guard against renewed fighting in western Libya

The civil war in Libya is having a destabilizing effect on the whole region of North Africa. By extension, it is also significantly affecting neighbouring regions, such as the eastern Mediterranean, the Sahara and even the Sahel strip. Neighbouring countries are watching the development of the conflict with particular concern.

At the current point in the conflict, eyes are focused on the border between Libya and Tunisia. Over the past few days, the Government of National Accord (GNA) of Fayez Sarraj has launched a coordinated offensive that has allowed it to regain the entire western coast of the country, from Tripoli to the borderline of Tunisian territory. 

The campaign, in which the Turkish-facilitated drones are likely to have played a decisive role, has enabled the GNA fighters to snatch several strategically important locations, such as Surman, Sabratha and Ras Jedir, from their Libyan National Army (LNA) opponents. The latter is located on the border with Tunisia.

The proximity of the fighting has prompted President Kaïs Saied's government to be on its guard. The Tunisian administration has decreed an increase in the level of alert in the entire zone of separation between the two countries. In total, the line separating the two countries extends over 450 kilometres.

If the situation was already delicate before the movement made by the GNA, with a war underway, it is foreseeable that the risk will grow even more. The two sides have sent troops to the area to reinforce their positions, so further fighting can be expected in the coming days.

On the one hand, Fathi Bashagha, minister of the interior of the GNA, has assured that officials of the Ministry of the Interior are going to start being deployed along the entire western coast with the aim of setting up institutions designated as security directorates. They will also help establish a permanent presence of a police force to maintain public order. 

On the other hand, it seems quite clear that Tripoli is expecting a new attack from the LNA. In fact, the administration in Tobruk - where the parallel power held by Haftar is based - had recently transferred the so-called Storm Battalion to the western front. Until now, this combat unit had been fighting on the front line south of the capital. It is likely that, once it regroups its forces, the LNA will launch an offensive to regain the ground it has lost so that it can once again close in on Tripoli.

The momentary victory of the LNA in western Libya may have two important consequences that concern Tunisia. On the one hand, it could give Sarraj a direct connection to a government that has hinted at him in the past. On the other hand, as long as the NTF maintains control of the western coast, the security threat to Tunisia may increase significantly.

Far from the firm stance taken by Morocco or Algeria, which have unambiguously advocated dialogue and have not explicitly involved themselves in favour of either side, Tunisia's position in the Libyan conflict has been tinged with a shadow of suspicion in recent months. 

President Saied's policy has been hesitant to say the least. In mid-February, four ships flying the Turkish flag docked at the port of La Goulette, Tunisia's largest port, with significant shipments of arms and ammunition on board to equip the GNA troops.

More recently, the Islamist party Ennahdha - in effect, parliamentary support for the Head of State - has been accused of engaging in negotiations with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to facilitate access of fighters through the country.

Indeed, the current of political Islamism has been the main link between the Tunisian and Tripoli administrations. The influence of the powerful Muslim Brotherhood is felt in both territories. The Libyan conflict is also a war of ideologies and Sarraj's GNA represents the interests of the Brotherhood. This is one of the reasons why Turkey and Qatar have become so actively involved in supporting the war and its economy.

Of course, Tunisia cannot be placed on the same level as the two countries mentioned above in terms of its degree of involvement. Indeed, the fact that their first reaction was to reinforce their borders seems to indicate that the country's authorities are not too comfortable with the NTF militia on their doorstep either.

This is logical. Among the government ranks, there are more than 5,000 Turkish mercenaries who have come directly from the war in Syria. Many of them were formed within the orbit of terrorist organisations of jihadist aetiology, such as the al-Nusra Front and Daesh. Of course, they represent a danger that Tunisia cannot ignore. In fact, there are precedents for the threat posed by jihadists based in Libya.

In the years following the fall of Muammar Gaddafi, Libyan territory became a virtually unopposed field of operations. Daeshlike organizations such as Ansar al-Sharia managed to take over significant parts of the country. Their borders were transformed into sifters, contributing to an almost unprecedented increase in instability to the south, in the Sahel strip. This also left its mark on Tunisia.

Traditionally one of the safest and most resilient countries against Jihadist terrorism, Tunisia became the target of several attacks that significantly damaged its tourism sector, one of its most important economic engines. In Tunisian collective memory, attacks such as the one on the Bardo Museum, in which 24 people were killed, and the one on the Susa spas (39 dead) remain in vivid memory. Both were perpetrated in 2015, coinciding with Daesh's time of maximum splendour, and by members of Daesh with a past in Libya. 

At that time, the southern regions of the country bordering Libya became a major entry point for terrorists. Criminal organisations took advantage of the porous borders to infiltrate their assets into Tunisia.

Today, the reality of jihadist terrorism in Tunisia is somewhat more controlled, but it resurfaces from time to time. A little more than a month ago, at the beginning of March, two motorcyclists blew themselves up in front of the United States Embassy in the capital. Although they were stopped by a security patrol, the explosion killed one of the agents. Later, it was found that the material they used in the operation had come across the Libyan border.

More recently, law enforcement officials dismantled a cell that had sworn allegiance to Daesh and planned to attack during the month of Ramadan. In addition, according to the daily Asharq al-Awsat, Tunisian police authorities have been conducting investigations in recent weeks in which they have seized weapons and explosives from the neighbouring country, many of them of Turkish manufacture.

As a result, the Tunisian Government has been forced to increase security levels on its eastern border. The proximity of the NTF troops, with all the implications that this entails, is a factor that could end up destabilising a country that is not fulfilling the political transition initiated after the fall of Ben Ali.